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GST collections at INR1.3t in December’21

Remains stable sequentially

* Total Goods & Services Tax (GST) collections stood at INR1.3t in Dec’21 (for economic activity in Nov’21), implying a growth of 13% YoY to INR1.32t in Dec’21. Although total collections were similar to that in the previous two months, it clocked the slowest growth in the past six-months in Dec’21. The average GST collection was INR1.3t per month in 3QFY22, the highest in any quarter since the introduction of GST in Jul’17.

* Notably, total revenue from domestic transactions (including imports of services) was up just 5% YoY in Dec’21, while revenue from imports of goods was up 36% YoY.

* Within total GST collections in Dec’21, CGST/SGST collections stood at a three-month low of INR225.8b/INR286.6b. After accounting for the IGST settlement, total revenue of the Centre and the States was at a four-month low of INR481.5b and INR497.6b, respectively, last month.

* Further, GST collections were stable at INR1.3t, despite a 14% MoM decline in daily e-way bill generation in Nov’21 (the month for which GST was collected in Dec’21). As of 26th Dec’21, daily e-way bill generation had been already higher by 9% MoM, indicating better GST collections in Jan’22 (for the month of Dec’21).

* Going by the past trends, GST collections could overshoot by INR1.8-2t in FY22E, implying an average collection of INR1.25-1.3t per month in 4QFY22E. If so, it implies that the Centre will garner additional resources amounting to INR0.75-0.8t from GST in FY22E

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