Economy Observer : Southwest monsoon surplus in the southern region strengthens - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Southwest monsoon at a 6% surplus as of 12th Sep’22
* Rainfall in central and south India appears to be in abundance in CY22. However, rainfall in northwestern and north eastern regions seems to be lacking. Therefore, all-India cumulative rainfall as of 12th Sep’22 stood at a surplus of only 6% v/s a surplus of 7% at the end of Aug’22 and 8% at the end of Jul’22 (refer Exhibits 1, 2, and 3).
* As of 2nd Sep’22, Kharif sowing was ~99% of normal sowing, lower than the ~101% during the same time last year, but similar to ~99% average over CY19- 21 (refer Exhibit 4).
* Month-wise rainfall received over CY02-21 shows that on an average June received only 19% of the season’s rainfall, July received almost one-third, followed by August at 29%. In CY21, while June received 21% of the rainfall, July received 30%, followed by August at 22% (refer Exhibit 5).
Water reservoir levels, as of 8th Sep’22, are higher than last year
* As of 8th Sep’22, water reservoir levels stood ~88% of its live storage capacity, higher than last year’s 68%. Off late, better rainfall across the country has led to the filling up of reservoirs (refer Exhibit 6).
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