Diwali Technical Picks - 2021 By GEPL Capital
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Tata Steel Ltd
CMP :- 1365 Daily ROC (3.72%)
Observation
* TATASTEEL on the monthly time frame seems to have entered in a corrective phase after testing a high 1534 and for the past 3 months the prices have been moving in a range and has been holding the support level of the 1230.
* On the weekly chart we can see that the prices have formed ‘CIP’ formation near 1230 mark and bounced back sharply with volume confirmation. Also it has formed Higher Top Higher Bottom formation and sustaining above its 20 Week SMA, indicating that the stock is ready for the next Up move.
* On the shorter time frame as well, we can see that the prices have maintained its Higher Top Higher Bottom formation and has been sustaining above its 20 Day SMA since last 2 weeks, pointing towards the presence of bullishness in the short to medium term.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the daily and the weekly charts can be seen placed above the 55 mark and moving higher, indicating presence of strong momentum in the up move.
* Going ahead the 1534 (Life Time High) will act as a resistance level, if the prices sustains above this level, we can see the prices move higher and test the 1717 (100% Extension levels of the rise from 1050 - 1534 projected from 1232).
* The key level to watch for on the downside are 1232 (CIP Level) followed by 1050 (Swing Low).
Tata Consultancy Services
CMP :- 3476 Daily ROC (2.31%)
Observation
* TCS has been in a strong uptrend since June 2020. In the last month, the Stock has made a Life Time high @ 3989 levels and corrected till 3385 mark which coincides with 23.6% retracement of previous advance from 1506 to 3989 levels.
* On the weekly timeframe, the stock has found a cluster of support of ‘CIP’ (Change In Polarity) and upward slopping trend line at 3400 - 3385 zone which indicate limited downside of the stock for the medium to long term.
* On the shorter time frame such as daily, we can see that the prices have given a initial sign of recovery with the formation of Higher Top Higher Bottom. Also the stock has formed ‘Bull Sash’ candle pattern which is a strong reversal sign at the major support zone.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly charts can be seen placed just above the 50 mark and moving higher, indicating presence of positive momentum in the stock.
* Going ahead the 3757 (Gap Resistance & 3 Week High) will act as a resistance level, if the prices sustains above this level, we can see the prices move higher and test the 3989 (Life Time High) followed by 4334 (38.2% Extension levels of the rise from 1506 - 3989 projected from 3385).
* The key level to watch for on the downside are 3385 (Cluster of Support) followed by 3132 (Swing Low).
Kotak Mahindra Bank
CMP :- 2076 Daily ROC (2.23%)
Observation
* KOTAKBANK has been in a strong uptrend since March 2020. In the month on October 2021, the counter tested a fresh lifetime high of 2253, post which the broad-based profit booking came in and pushed the prices lower towards the 2000 mark.
* On the weekly timeframe, the stock has found a cluster of support at 2000 as it happens to be placed near the Feb 2021 highs and also near the 38.2% retracement level of the rise recent up swing from 1626-2253.
* On the daily time frame we can see that the price breached below the 20 Day SMA by a mild margin, but was quick to recover and recapture the it on 1st November 2021.
* On the indicator front the MACD plotted on the weekly time frame can be seen placed above the zero-line and moving higher, indicating presence of bullishness in the trend.
* Going ahead the 2245-2273 (Previous swing high and 61.8% extension level of the rise from 1001-2049 projected from 1626) will act as a resistance level, if the prices sustains above this level, we can see the prices move higher and test the 2450 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 1001-2049 projected from 1626).
* The key level to watch for on the downside are 1931 (50% retracement level of the rise from 1626-2253 and 5 week low) followed by 1857 (Multiple touch point level).
Housing Development Finance Corporation
CMP :- 2887.95 Daily ROC (1.52%)
Observation
* HDFC has been in a strong up trend since September 2020. this took the prices from 1884-2948 in a time span of almost a year. In the month of October 2021 the prices tested a fresh life time highs of 2948 before the profit booking came-in.
* On the weekly timeframe, we have shown the classic accumulation pattern, that happened near the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from 1623-2896. In the week ended 18th October 2021 the prices broke above the upper range of the accumulation pattern and have been hovering around that level for the past 2 weeks, when the broader market was going through a profit booking phase.
* On the shorter time frame we can see the stock bounced off the 20 Day SMA on 29th October 2021. On the 1st November the prices moved higher and missed a fresh life time high by a whisker. This up move was backed by good volume buildup, indicating participation in the up move.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly chart can be seen placed above the 50 mark and has successfully managed to sustain above the same since the month of October 2020.
* Going ahead the 3045 (61.8% extension level of the rise from 1623-2896 projected from 2354) will act as a resistance level, if the prices sustains above this level, we can see the prices move higher and test the 3233 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 1623-2896 projected from 2354).
* The key level to watch for on the downside are 2700 (20 Week SMA) followed by 2561 (Multiple touch point level).
Larsen & Toubro
Observation
* The Nifty Infra Index has been in focus since February 2021 ever since the prices broke above a 10 year long consolidation. As mentioned earlier we have chosen LT as we have kept the major focus on Large Cap stocks from all the selected sectorial indices. And also LT has been one of the strongest outperformer in the Infra space since March 2020.
* On the weekly timeframe, We can see that the prices have been moving between the upper band and the 20 Week SMA and riding the upper Bollinger band since Mid May 2021. the stock tested a fresh life time high of 1885 in the week ended 18th October 2021.
* On the shorter time we can see hefty volume build up as the prices move higher, and very scanty volumes as the prices enter a corrective or a consolidation phase, indicting good buying interest as the prices move higher.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly charts has been placed above the 50 mark since November 2020 and has managed to sustain above the same ever since, pointing towards a range shift.
* Going ahead the 1885 (3 Week High 61.8% extension level of the rise from 661-1593 projected from 1306) will act as a resistance level, if the prices sustains above this level, we can see the prices move higher and test the 2038 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 661-1593 projected from 1306)
* The key level to watch for on the downside are 1663 (20 Week SMA) followed by 1597 (Multiple touch point level).
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