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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 48903 hurt by a resilient dollar as some investors bet that recent spikes in U.S. consumer prices are temporary. But capping bullion's losses by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing metal, benchmark U.S. Treasury yields touched a three-month low. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged and pledged a steady flow of stimulus over the summer. The Federal Reserve could stop adding to its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) several months before it finishes increasing its stockpile of Treasuries. The expectation the U.S. central bank could reduce its MBS purchases by a relatively larger proportion than its purchases of Treasuries coincides with a growing debate about the need for any buying of housing-backed assets, given the red-hot real estate market. Physical gold demand crept up this week in top hubs India and China though dealers were still forced to offer discounts, while businesses limped back to life in India as some COVID-19 restrictions were eased. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies. Discounts in top consumer China narrowed to about $7-$12 per ounce against global benchmark spot gold rates , from last week's $20-$50, amid stricter COVID-19-related restrictions. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.06% to settled at 11070 while prices down -295 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48713 and below same could see a test of 48522 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49247, a move above could see prices testing 49590.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 48522-49590.

* Gold prices slipped hurt by a resilient dollar as some investors bet that recent spikes in U.S. consumer prices are temporary.

* The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged and pledged a steady flow of stimulus over the summer.

* Physical gold demand crept up this week in top hubs India and China though dealers were still forced to offer discounts

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 72227 as U.S. bond yields fell to three-month lows amid bets that any shift in ultra-accommodative policy is unlikely to happen soon. Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose 5 percent in May, the biggest annual since 2008 and more than economists had expected. But the data reinforced hopes that rising price pressures will be transitory and the central bank is unlikely to withdraw monetary support any time soon. After maintaining an elevated pace of pandemic emergency bond purchases (PEPP) for the third quarter, the European Central Bank said that inflation would remain below the central bank's target of just under 2 percent through 2023. Investors await the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting for more clues about the state of the economy and policy outlook. U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in early June as inflation fears subsided and households grew more optimistic about future economic growth and employment, a survey showed. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index increased to 86.4 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 82.9 in May. German output is rebounding from its pandemic-induced slump and inflation could rise faster than currently expected, potentially affecting behaviour in the economy, the German central bank said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.17% to settled at 11874 while prices up 228 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71930 and below same could see a test of 71632 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72662, a move above could see prices testing 73096.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 71632-73096.

* Silver gains as U.S. bond yields fell to three-month lows amid bets that any shift in ultra-accommodative policy is unlikely to happen soon.

* U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in early June as inflation fears subsided and households grew more optimistic about future economic growth and employment

* Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose 5 percent in May, the biggest annual since 2008 and more than economists had expected.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.6% at 5202 on expectations of a recovery in fuel demand in the United States, Europe and China as rising vaccination rates lead to an easing of pandemic curbs. OPEC+ oil producers will need to boost their output in order to meet demand set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, the International Energy Agency said. "OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied," the Paris-based energy watchdog said, adding that rising demand and countries' short-term policies were at odds with the IEA's call to end new oil, gas and coal funding in a stark report issued last month. "In 2022 there is scope for the 24-member OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to ramp up crude supply by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) above its July 2021-March 2022 target," it said in its monthly oil report. "Oil demand looks set to continue to rise, underlining the enormous effort required to get on track to reach stated ambitions." U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to reach $80 per barrel this summer as vaccination rollouts boost global economic activity. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.47% to settled at 11528 while prices up 82 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5128 and below same could see a test of 5054 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5246, a move above could see prices testing 5290.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5054-5290.

* Crude oil rose on expectations of a recovery in fuel demand in the United States, Europe and China

* OPEC+ oil producers will need to boost their output in order to meet demand set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022

* Oil demand looks set to continue to rise, underlining the enormous effort required to get on track to reach stated ambitions.

 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.93% at 242.8 on forecasts for rising exports, hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 98 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 4. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With warmer weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 88.1 bcfd this week to 90.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv forecast on Wednesday on a rise in exports and expectations power generators would burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 9.7 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and the all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. Traders noted LNG feedgas to was down due to short-term maintenance at the Sabine Pass and Cameron export plants in Louisiana and some of the pipelines that provide them with fuel. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 36.36% to settled at 27089 while prices up 13.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 234.8 and below same could see a test of 226.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 247.2, a move above could see prices testing 251.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 226.9-251.7.

* Natural gas jumped on forecasts for rising exports, hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks.

* EIA said utilities added 98 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 4.

* Despite the hotter forecast, overall demand for gas over the next two weeks was expected to be down a bit

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.43% at 748.65 after Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10.3 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. China's state reserves administration plans to sell its reserves of copper, aluminium and zinc in a programme expected to last until the end of 2021, Chinese information provider Shanghai Metal Exchange Market said. The possible action by the administration came as domestic producer inflation in May hit its highest in more than 12 years due to surging commodity prices, while copper prices hit a record high last month. The US CPI exceeded expectations in May, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the core CPI hit a new high since 1992. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision was released, and the interest rate remained unchanged. The budget deficit of the US in the first eight months of fiscal year 2021 exceeded $2 trillion, and Biden's budget released last month estimated that the annual budget deficit was $3.7 trillion. The financial data released in China in May showed average performance, with M2 increasing by 8.3% year on year, and social financing scale decreasing year on year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.56% to settled at 4104 while prices up 10.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 738.7 and below same could see a test of 728.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 757.2, a move above could see prices testing 765.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 728.7-765.7.

* Copper prices gained after copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 10.3 percent.

* The US CPI exceeded expectations in May, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the core CPI hit a new high since 1992.

* The budget deficit of the US in the first eight months of fiscal year 2021 exceeded $2 trillion

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.87% at 242.05 after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 16,100 mt in the week ended June 11 to 136,100 mt. The stocks fell 6,600 mt from Monday June 7. Stocks in Shanghai decreased slightly as arrivals of import zinc increased and the downstream still had stockpiling demand before the holiday. In south China's Guangdong, the proportion of direct delivery to the downstream of smelters decreased, while the delivery of goods from warehouses in the downstream increased, which led to the continuous decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell as zinc prices fell sharply yesterday, and the downstream purchases at low prices increased. U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in early June as inflation fears subsided and households grew more optimistic about future economic growth and employment, a survey showed. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index increased to 86.4 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 82.9 in May. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.5% to settled at 2717 while prices up 4.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 238.9 and below same could see a test of 235.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 243.9, a move above could see prices testing 245.6.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 235.6-245.6.

* Zinc prices gained after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 16,100 mt.

* US CPI for May reached a record high in 13 years, and inflation continued to expand amid the strong economic recovery.

* European Central Bank maintained the three key interest ratios unchanged.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 1344.7 as nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 432,000 wmt from Jun 4 to 5.51 million wmt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 492,000 wmt during the same period to 3.78 million wmt. Nickel ore inventories dropped significantly this week. Shipments in the Philippine declined due to the weather, and the output of domestic ferronickel plants increased slowly with rising demand for nickel ore, which accounted for the decrease in stocks. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas remained unchanged from a week ago and stood at 9,700 mt as of June 11, showed data. German output is rebounding from its pandemic-induced slump and inflation could rise faster than currently expected, potentially affecting behaviour in the economy, the German central bank said. The national refined nickel output decreased 590 mt or 4.53% month on month to 12,400 mt in May, and operating rates stood at 57%.Among them, Gansu smelter carried out overhaul of the top-blowing furnace, but maintained the overall normal production, with the affected output within 1,000 mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13% to settled at 1582 while prices up 14.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1336.3 and below same could see a test of 1327.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1351.2, a move above could see prices testing 1357.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1327.9-1357.7.

* Nickel gained as nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 432,000 wmt from Jun 4 to 5.51 million wmt

* Prices have been pushed up by stronger demand from the nickel-based stainless steel market in China and from the EV industry.

* Nornickel projects a 2021 market surplus of 52,000 tonnes, sharply below its prior forecast of 90,000 tonnes.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 195 as China's state reserves administration plans to sell its reserves of aluminium in a programme expected to last until the end of 2021. Output of primary aluminium in China will increase until 2024, after which secondary, or recycled metal will start to claim a bigger share of plateauing consumption. China is by far the world's biggest aluminium maker, churning out a record 37.08 million tonnes in 2020. However, its government wants to cap annual smelting capacity at 45 million tonnes and producers, under pressure to reduce emissions, are looking to recycle more scrap metal instead. However downside seen limited in the glow of tightening stocks and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors. Supply continues to remain quite scarce as mills have been struggling to find labour and transportation at a time when global aluminium consumption is seen rising 8% to around 69 million this year. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for July to September was set at $185 a tonne, up 24% to 25% from this quarter The premium was 24-25% higher than the $148-149 a tonne paid from April to June, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and the highest since the April-June quarter in 2015. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.16% to settled at 2237 while prices down -0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 193.9 and below same could see a test of 192.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197, a move above could see prices testing 198.9.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 192.7-198.9.

* Aluminium dropped as China's state reserves administration plans to sell its reserves of aluminium

* However downside seen limited in the glow of tightening stocks and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors.

* Japan Q3 aluminium premium rises by 24 – 25% to 6 – yr high

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 952 as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. However downside seen limited due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop.. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -23.4 Rupees to end at 1042.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 26 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 942 and below same could see a test of 932 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962, a move above could see prices testing 972.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 932-972.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -23.4 Rupees to end at 1042.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha dropped as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments.

* However dowsnide seen limited due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected.

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -2.49% at 6611 as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. China’s soybean imports in May rose from the previous month, customs data showed, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. It could also boost Indian exports of animal feed ingredient soymeal to places such as Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam and Iran, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -290 Rupees to 7108 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.35% to settled at 36365 while prices down -169 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6546 and below same could see a test of 6481 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6719, a move above could see prices testing 6827.

Trading Ideas: 

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6481-6827.

* Soyabean prices dropped as India's soybean planting could rise by over 10% on record prices

* China Jan-May soybean imports up 12.8% at 38.23 million tonnes

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -290 Rupees to 7108 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -5.86% at 1256.6 after update that the government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1350 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.43% to settled at 40245 while prices down -78.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1233 and below same could see a test of 1209 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1303, a move above could see prices testing 1349.

Trading Ideas: 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1209-1349.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped after update that the government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon. 

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* However, there were concerns about tight global supplies of edible oils.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1350 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -5.98% at 1025.6 as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. Pressure also seen as Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb to an eight-month peak. Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of May likely jumped 6.3% on-month to their highest in eight months, as production rose amid sluggish exports. Inventories at the world's second-largest producer are seen at 1.64 million tonnes, their highest since last September. Production is pegged to rise 3.4% from April to 1.58 million tonnes, its highest in seven months, as plantations enter the seasonal higher production months. Exports in May are expected to climb 0.9% month-on-month to 1.35 million tonnes, with cargo surveyor data showing slightly smaller shipments to the world's biggest palm oil buyer, India. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices last month hit record highs, which may support palm oil prices. The A labour shortage in Malaysia's plantations that has curbed output throughout the coronavirus pandemic is expected to prolong as a resurgence of COVID-19 cases forced the nation into a two-week lockdown. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -23.1 Rupees to end at 1108 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.52% to settled at 4086 while prices down -65.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1005.3 and below same could see a test of 985.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1065.8, a move above could see prices testing 1106.1.

Trading Ideas: 

* CPO trading range for the day is 985.1-1106.1.

* Crude palm oil dropped as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month 

* May palm oil stocks rose 1.5% to 1.57 mln T – MPOB

* Crude palm oil production gained 2.84% from April to 1.57 million tonnes, while palm oil exports fell 6.01% to 1.27 million tonnes

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -23.1 Rupees to end at 1108 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -3.55% at 6600 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. Stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -242 Rupees to end at 6958 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.55% to settled at 58110 while prices down -243 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6520 and below same could see a test of 6440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6740, a move above could see prices testing 6880.

Trading Ideas: 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6440-6880.

* Mustard seed dropped as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. 

* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -242 Rupees to end at 6958 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 7806 on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7543.2 Rupees dropped -2.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.31% to settled at 10490 while prices up 74 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7714 and below same could see a test of 7622 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7864, a move above could see prices testing 7922.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7622-7922.

* Turmeric gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

* However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. 

* At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7543.2 Rupees dropped -2.45 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 13770 on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -50 Rupees to end at 13850 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.74% to settled at 6252 while prices up 50 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13695 and below same could see a test of 13620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13850, a move above could see prices testing 13930.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13620-13930.

* Jeera gained  on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -50 Rupees to end at 13850 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.16% at 23940 as USDA kept the production estimate unchanged but hiked its projections for U.S. 2021/22 exports, cut ending stocks. Cotton sowing area grows despite of delays. Despite sowing of cotton stretching beyond the ideal sowing time in Punjab, it is close to reaching the target for 2021-22. The state agriculture department had the target of sowing cotton on 3.25 lakh hectares the crop had been sown over 3.01 lakh hectares. New figures show global cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as the stocks-to-use ratio declines. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly. Cotton consumption is expected to increase by 2% to 25.3m tonnes as the global economy continues to recover. Decreases in Brazil, India and the US have caused a reduction in the 2020/21 global production estimate but cotton production — along with consumption and trade — are all expected to increase in 2021/22: Production is expected to increase by 5% to 25.5m tonnes, with increases in planted areas in the US and West Africa. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 24470 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.33% to settled at 4477 while prices down -280 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23610 and below same could see a test of 23290 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24260, a move above could see prices testing 24590.

Trading Ideas: 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 23290-24590.

* Cotton dropped as USDA kept the production estimate unchanged but hiked its projections for U.S. 2021/22 exports, cut ending stocks. 

* Cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21

* According to the latest update from the ICAC, China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 24470 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 5171 as there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 19.05 Rupees to end at 5094.05 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.81% to settled at 133960 while prices up 25 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5135 and below same could see a test of 5098 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5203, a move above could see prices testing 5234.

Trading Ideas: 

* Chana trading range for the day is 5098-5234.

* Chana prices seen supported as shortage of pulses likely as production expected to decline

* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 19.05 Rupees to end at 5094.05 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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