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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 52292 due to a stronger dollar, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance clouding the outlook for non-yielding bullion. Investors were cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday which could provide further clues on the pace of the Fed's rate hikes. Some Fed officials are also due to speak this week. Meanwhile, concerns of further curbs in China after the country reported covid deaths for the first time in six months during the weekend, also weighed on investors' risk appetite. Investors are also keeping an eye on the economic fallout from fresh COVID-19 restrictions in top bullion consumer China. Most notably, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the policy rate is not sufficiently restrictive and suggested that it could reach the 5% to 7% range as authorities try to stamp out inflation, higher than what the market is currently pricing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also emphasized that a pause is “off the table,” while Kansas City Fed President Esther George said that policymakers must be “careful not to stop too soon” on hiking rates. Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer the biggest discounts in four months as a jump in domestic prices hit demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.98% to settle at 4649 while prices are down -296 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52088 and below same could see a test of 51885 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52542, a move above could see prices testing 52793.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 51885-52793.
* Gold prices fell due to a stronger dollar, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance clouding the outlook for non-yielding bullion.
* Investors were cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes which could provide further clues on the pace of the Fed's rate hikes
* Investors are also keeping an eye on the economic fallout from fresh COVID-19 restrictions in China.
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 60635 as the U.S. dollar rose amid worries about weakening demand in China and repeated rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to cool inflation. The Federal Reserve will downshift in December to deliver a 50-basis-point interest rate hike, but economists polled by Reuters say a longer period of U.S. central bank tightening and a higher policy rate peak are the greatest risks to the current outlook. Global demand for silver is expected to rise 16% this year to 1.21 billion ounces, creating the biggest deficit in decades, according to the Silver Institute. Use of silver by industry, for jewellery and silverware and for bars and coins for retail investors were all forecast to reach record levels, the institute said. Automakers are using more silver as the amount of electronics in vehicles increases, but the sector accounts for only around 5% of total demand. Solar panels account for around 10% of silver demand. Demand in India almost doubled in 2022 as buyers took advantage of low prices to replenish stockpiles drawn down in 2020 and 2021. The amount of silver stored in vaults in London and New York monitored by the COMEX exchange and the London Bullion Market Association has fallen by around 370 million ounces – or 25% – this year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.44% to settle at 11186 while prices are down -240 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60262 and below same could see a test of 59888 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60912, a move above could see prices testing 61188.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 59888-61188.
* Silver prices fell as the U.S. dollar rose amid worries about weakening demand in China and repeated rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to cool inflation.
* Fed to lift rates by 50 basis points, but peak policy rate may be higher
* Global demand for silver is expected to rise 16% this year to 1.21 billion ounces

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 6581 regained some lost ground and ended the day's session modestly lower. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producers are discussing an output increase. Investors fretted about a gloomy economic outlook, with JPMorgan projecting that the US will enter a mild recession next year due to rapid rate rises. U.S. crude stocks fell by more than 5 million barrels in the most recent week, while fuel stocks rose as refiners boosted output to deal with high demand and low inventories. Crude inventories fell by 5.4 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 11 to 435.4 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with expectations for a 440,000-barrel drop. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 2.2 million barrels in the week to 207.9 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 310,000-barrel rise. U.S. commercial crude oil imports fell 895,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the latest week to 5.6 million bpd, the lowest since May 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly Petroleum Status Report. In the U.S. Gulf Coast region, crude imports fell 257,000 bpd last week to 879,000 bpd, the lowest since December 2021. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.9% to settle at 14564 while prices are up 78 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6323 and below same could see a test of 6064 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6725, a move above could see prices testing 6868.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6064-6868.
* Crude oil prices fell to a ten-month low but regained some lost ground and ended the day's session modestly lower.
* Struggling Chinese demand, rising COVID cases in focus
* U.S. crude imports fall to lowest since May 2021 – EIA

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.88% at 553.2 on forecasts for colder weather and stronger heating demand this week than previously expected. Traders also noted the expected restart of the 2.1-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid December, if it happens, would boost demand for gas in coming weeks. The plant shut six months ago after a fire. Freeport LNG said last week that the company would not meet its previously announced November restart target for its export plant and was now projecting a mid-December restart, if regulators approve. Speculators cut their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a third week in a row to their lowest since September, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. The premium of futures for January over December , meanwhile, was on track to close at a record high for a second day in a row as some in the market started to give up on the prospect of extreme cold in December. Gas futures were up about 73% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 81.42% to settle at 7001 while prices are up 40.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 518.4 and below same could see a test of 483.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 572.3, a move above could see prices testing 591.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 483.6-591.4.
* Natural gas gained on forecasts for colder weather and stronger heating demand this week than previously expected.
* The expected restart of the 2.1-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Freeport LNG export plant in Texas in mid December
* Speculators cut their net short futures and options positions for a third week in a row to their lowest since September

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.52% at 662.9 amid concerns over the outlook for global demand and as hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials sent the dollar higher. China produced 953,000 tonnes of refined copper in October, up 10.9% from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The dollar rose after comments from Fed officials, in the wake of employment data still showing a tight U.S. labour market, dashed investors' hopes for less aggressive monetary policy. Meanwhile, top metals consumer China struggled with rising COVID-19 cases this week, including in big cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, fanning concerns about its economic performance. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 12.7 % from last Friday, the exchange said. India is set to be one of the world's fastest growing copper markets in 2022, bucking the trend of softening demand expansion elsewhere, including top consumer China, amid a slowing global economy. Refined copper consumption in India during January-August this year jumped 45% from 2021 to 435,466 tonnes, outpacing 4% growth globally and a 5% uptick in China in the same period, World Bureau of Metal Statistics data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.47% to settle at 3987 while prices are down -10.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 657.1 and below same could see a test of 651.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 670.7, a move above could see prices testing 678.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 651.1-678.3.
* Copper prices dropped amid concerns over the outlook for global demand and as hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials
* China produced 953,000 tonnes of refined copper in October, up 10.9% from a year ago
* Shanghai warehouse copper stocks up 12.7%

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -3.26% at 261.3 as signs of low demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages. Data shows that zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 58,800 mt as of November 18, down 3,900 mt from this Monday (November 14) and down 1,700 mt from a week earlier (November 11). Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02% or 10,200 mt MoM and up 14,800 mt or 2.96% YoY. survey showed that China refined zinc output in October gained palpably on a monthly basis, but it was still slightly less than expected. Reasons for the increase in output vary. Large smelters in Hunan ramped up the production, and some small smelters in Hunan and Guangxi resumed normal production; the overall output in Yunnan climbed thanks to the production uplift in some large smelters in spite of power rationing; a large smelter in Inner Mongolia ramped up the output after digesting the excessive zinc sheet arising from previous production reduction; a smelter in Xinjiang resumed the production from maintenance, thought it did not reach full capacity due to the impact of the pandemic. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.36% to settle at 1707 while prices are down -8.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 256.9 and below same could see a test of 252.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 266.8, a move above could see prices testing 272.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 252.6-272.4.
* Zinc dropped as signs of low demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages.
* Zinc ingot social inventory down 3,900 mt from Monday
* Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02%

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.36% at 206.3 as rising virus cases in China stoked fears that authorities would implement wider Covid restrictions. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 547,000 mt as of Thursday November 17, down 29,000 mt from a week ago. The inventory was down 65,000 mt on a monthly basis and 491,000 mt from the same period last year. The ingot inventory has been falling for four weeks in a row, while refreshing the new low constantly in 2022, which was also at a low level compared to the same period in history. Aluminium billet social inventory added 6,400 mt from a week ago to 60,600 mt as of Thursday November 17. China's aluminium imports in October fell 33.9% from a year earlier due to persistently weak demand and increases in domestic supply. The country brought in 196,460 tonnes, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The drop in imports comes after a ramp-up in domestic production this year. Output in October grew for an eighth consecutive month to 3.45 million tonnes. For the first 10 months of the year, China produced 33.33 million tonnes, up 3.3% from the corresponding period in 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -22.03% to settle at 2701 while prices are down -2.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.2 and below same could see a test of 202.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.4, a move above could see prices testing 210.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.2-210.6.
* Aluminum dropped as rising virus cases in China stoked fears that authorities would implement wider Covid restrictions.
* China's October aluminium imports drop 34%
* China's October aluminium output climbs 9.5% on relaxed power curbs

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 950.9 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1104.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.83% to settle at 692 while prices are down -4.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 948 and below same could see a test of 945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 954, a move above could see prices testing 957.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945-957.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1104.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled down as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 7478 on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7467.9 Rupees dropped -28.55 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.05% to settle at 9445 while prices are down -52 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7422 and below same could see a test of 7364 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7544, a move above could see prices testing 7608.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7364-7608.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7467.9 Rupees dropped -28.55 Rupees.
 

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 24725 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 281.25 Rupees to end at 24516.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.24% to settle at 6810 while prices are up 55 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24475 and below same could see a test of 24220 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24975, a move above could see prices testing 25220.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24220-25220.
* Jeera gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 281.25 Rupees to end at 24516.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.88% at 31310 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated. The association’s Cotton Crop Committee meeting attributed the decline in domestic consumption to a reduction in operations of mills due to slack demand for yarn and cloth. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -560 Rupees to end at 32540 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.65% to settle at 1803 while prices are down -930 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31100 and below same could see a test of 30880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31640, a move above could see prices testing 31960.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 30880-31960.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand set to dip 6% in 2022-23
* Spinning mills operated at 40-60 per cent capacity in the first quarter, which may cause cotton consumption to drop
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -560 Rupees to end at 32540 Rupees.

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