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Gold 
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 50457 as investors opted for the dollar as a hedge against surging inflation and recession risks over the metal. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates also pressured gold, as a stronger-than-expected jobs report and upcoming US inflation data could bolster the central bank’s tightening plans. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said that the lack of month-to-month improvement in the pace of price increases warrants another 75 basis point rate hikes later this month. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed Bank President Esther George, a dissenter in last month’s 75 bps increase, warned against abrupt changes in rates that could stress the economy and financial markets. Physical gold demand improved slightly in India and discounts narrowed after prices eased, while concerns over fresh coronavirus outbreaks kept a leash on activity in China. Dealers were offering a discount of up to $28 an ounce over official domestic prices down from last week's discount of $40. Some buyers are postponing purchases as they were confused by volatile global prices and fluctuations in the Indian rupee, which hit a record low. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.06% to settled at 8506 while prices down -187 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50332 and below same could see a test of 50207 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50688, a move above could see prices testing 50919.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50207-50919.
* Gold dropped as investors opted for the dollar as a hedge against surging inflation and recession risks over the metal.
* Fed’s Bostic said that the lack of month-to-month improvement in the pace of price increases warrants another 75 basis point rate hikes later this month.
* Fed’s George warned against abrupt changes in rates that could stress the economy and financial markets.

Silver 
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 56466 as the U.S. dollar and European single currency have reached parity amid growing concerns about recessions and expectations around Fed tightening. Growth worries returned to the fore after a survey showed expectations for economic growth in Germany slumped in July. Separate data from the British Retail Consortium and the advisory services firm KPMG revealed that U.K. retail sales decreased for the third consecutive month in June. The focus for this week will be macro data including U.S. consumer inflation on Wednesday, and comments from Federal Reserve officials as investors look for clues on the outcome of the Fed's upcoming policy meeting before the pre-meet blackout period. A high inflation reading would add pressure for the Fed to step up its already aggressive pace of interest rate increases. Investors are concerned the shutdown might be extended because of the war in Ukraine, restricting European gas supply further and tipping the struggling euro zone economy into recession. A raft of U.S. economic data – including consumer prices, retail sales and factory output – should provide a glimpse of the extent to which inflation has peaked as the Federal Reserve moves closer to next week's policy meeting. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.71% to settled at 22029 while prices down -459 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56064 and below same could see a test of 55662 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56824, a move above could see prices testing 57182.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55662-57182.
* Silver dropped as the U.S. dollar and European single currency have reached parity amid growing concerns about recessions and expectations around Fed tightening.
* Growth worries returned to the fore after a survey showed expectations for economic growth in Germany slumped in July.
* The focus for this week will be macro data including U.S. consumer inflation on Wednesday, and comments from Federal Reserve officials

Crude oil 
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -7.15% at 7664 as OPEC forecast that world oil demand will rise further next year, but at a slightly slower rate than in 2022, with consumption supported by better containment of the COVID-19 pandemic and still-robust global economic growth. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it expects world oil demand to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023. This year's growth forecast was left unchanged at 3.36 million bpd. "In 2023 expectations for healthy global economic growth amidst improvements in geopolitical developments, combined with expected improvements in the containment of COVID-19 in China, are expected to boost consumption of oil," OPEC said in the report. Pressure also seen as fresh Covid-19 curbs in top importer China and mounting fears of a global economic slowdown weighed on the market. About 30 million people in China are under some form of movement restrictions as the country grapples with resurgent virus outbreaks, with a highly-contagious Omicron subvariant being detected in Shanghai. President Joe Biden is set to visit Saudi Arabia this week amid efforts to bring down energy prices. Meanwhile, persistent supply concerns kept markets on edge, as major producers are limited by capacity constraints while Russian supply remains mired in sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.18% to settled at 5689 while prices down -590 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7470 and below same could see a test of 7277 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8009, a move above could see prices testing 8355.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7277-8355.
* Crude oil prices dropped as OPEC forecast that world oil demand will rise further next year, but at a slightly slower rate than in 2022
* Pressure also seen as fresh Covid-19 curbs in top importer China and mounting fears of a global economic slowdown weighed on the market.
* OPEC forecasts world oil demand will grow by 2.7 million bpd in 2023.

Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.91% at 497.8 as the gas market followed an 8% drop in oil prices. That gas price decline came even though daily gas output dropped and amid forecasts for hotter weather and more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Also weighing on gas prices, traders noted the ongoing outage at Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas has left more gas in the United States for utilities to refill low stockpiles for the winter. Texas's power grid operator warned of potential rolling blackouts amid predictions demand would hit all-time highs as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the extreme heat. Power demand also broke records in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and in several parts of the U.S. Southeast over the past week. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 96.2 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would rise from 97.9 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to 11.1 bcfd so far in July from 11.2 bcfd in June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.75% to settled at 2922 while prices down -14.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 473.2 and below same could see a test of 448.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 531, a move above could see prices testing 564.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 448.7-564.3.
* Natural gas fell as the gas market followed an 8% drop in oil prices.
* Texas's power grid operator warned of potential rolling blackouts amid predictions demand would hit all-time highs
* Power demand also broke records in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and in several parts of the U.S. Southeast over the past week.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -3.49% at 626.25 weighed down by mounting fears of a global economic slowdown and resurgent Covid-19 outbreaks in top consumer China. Prospects of a global recession continued to dominate sentiment as major central banks are racing ahead with aggressive rate hikes to combat surging inflation. Fresh virus outbreaks in China also raised fears of stricter lockdowns and a wider economic disruption in the country, adding downward pressure on copper prices. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities are doubling down on an infrastructure push as the country aims to build a total of 461,000 kilometers of the national highway by 2035, which could boost metal consumption. On the supply side, copper output at Peru’s huge Las Bambas mine has returned to normal levels after a two-month shut down due to protests that ended last month. China's copper cathode output in June was little changed from May, as some smelters shut down for maintenance even as others lifted output. Smelters in the northwestern region Xinjiang, as well as eastern Zhejiang and Anhui provinces, began planned maintenance last month, while some extended the periods they went offline amid poor margins in the world's top copper smelting nation. It expects July output to reach 803,000 tonnes as reasonable refining charges and high sulphuric acid prices will bolster smelters' willingness to ramp up their production. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.46% to settled at 6666 while prices down -22.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 616.9 and below same could see a test of 607.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 641.5, a move above could see prices testing 656.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 607.4-656.6.
* Copper fell weighed down by mounting fears of a global economic slowdown and resurgent Covid-19 outbreaks in top consumer China.
* Fresh virus outbreaks in China also raised fears of stricter lockdowns and a wider economic disruption in the country, adding downward pressure.
* Copper output at Peru’s huge Las Bambas mine has returned to normal levels after a two-month shut down due to protests that ended last month.

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 273.65 amid heightened risk aversion, as rising COVID case counts in several regions fueled talk of another round of painful lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai or Beijing. China aims to build a total of 461,000 kilometres (286,452 miles) of national highway by 2035, compared with 382,000 kilometres by the end of 2021, as authorities are doubling down on an infrastructure push, which means more metals consumption. New bank lending in China leapt in June, rising more than expected, while broad credit growth quickened amid efforts to revive the pandemic-hit economy. Russia's largest natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 was closed for a period of ten days, and potential energy shortage rattled the nerves of market players and pushed up metals prices. China's refined zinc output stood at 490,300 mt in June, down 24,900 mt or 4.84% MoM and 17,700 mt or 3.48% YoY. From January to June 2022, the combined refined zinc output was 2.973 million mt, a decrease of 1.49% year on year. Survey showed that the output of domestic refined zinc decreased in June and was less than expected. The output increment was mainly brought about by a smelter in Inner Mongolia which resumed the production after maintenance. In addition, a large smelter in Hunan resumed normal production in June after a minor overhaul. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.9% to settled at 1572 while prices down -2.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 271.5 and below same could see a test of 269.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 276.8, a move above could see prices testing 280.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.4-280.
* Zinc dropped amid heightened risk aversion, as rising COVID case counts in several regions fueled talk of another round of painful lockdowns in China
* New bank lending in China leapt in June, rising more than expected, while broad credit growth quickened amid efforts to revive the pandemic-hit economy.
* Refined zinc output declined more than expected amid the tight raw material supply and the rapid decline in profits

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 205.7 as the repeating pandemic in China affected the market sentiment to some extent, while the investors also weighed the rate hike expectations and energy shortage. The Fed officer Bostic reiterated his support for another 75 basis point rate hike as the primary goal is to get rates to a more neutral position. In other words, the immediate priority is to get inflation back down to 2%. Pessimism loomed over the aluminium market amid steadily rising aluminium supply as well as seasonal low across the downstream, especially when the supporting policies have not yet materialised. China produced 3.361 million mt of aluminium in June (30 calendar days), up 4.48% on the year. The daily output stood at 112,000 mt, up 1,231 on the month and 4,790 mt on the year. The output totalled 19.559 million mt from January to June 2022, an increase of 0.47% on the year. The domestic aluminium supply in June continued to increase. The production resumption and the new capacity in Guangxi, Gansu, Yunnan and other regions totalled around 450,000 mt, contributing the major increase. As of early July, Chinese aluminium production capacity reached 41.05 million mt, the effective built-up capacity scale was 44.57 million mt, and the operating rates stood at 92.1%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.28% to settled at 2931 while prices down -1.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.5 and below same could see a test of 203.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.6, a move above could see prices testing 209.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.2-209.4.
* Aluminium seen under pressure as the repeating pandemic in China affected the market sentiment to some extent.
* The investors also weighed the rate hike expectations and energy shortage.
* China produced 3.361 million mt of aluminium in June (30 calendar days), up 4.48% on the year.

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 1006.9 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -3.7 Rupees to end at 1118.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.93% to settled at 1062 while prices up 5.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1000.1 and below same could see a test of 993.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1011.7, a move above could see prices testing 1016.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 993.2-1016.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -3.7 Rupees to end at 1118.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha gains amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.5% at 7990 as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. However upside seen limited amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices. Turmeric exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has improved by 4 percent at 1.78 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.72 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of March 2022 around 15,751.54 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,361.20 in March 2021 showing an increase of 22%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,282.53 in April 2021 showing an increase of 4%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8061.85 Rupees gained 83.05 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.46% to settled at 13040 while prices up 118 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7852 and below same could see a test of 7716 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8092, a move above could see prices testing 8196.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7716-8196.
* Turmeric gained as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses.
* However, upside seen limited amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India.
* In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8061.85 Rupees gained 83.05 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.66% at 22795 as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low. Big traders and stockiest have been holding to stocks anticipating further increase in prices. Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has declined by 32 percent at 2.17 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.86 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of April 2022 around 10,707.38 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 14,595.43 in March 2022 showing a decline of 27%. In view of the international situation of cumin seeds, all the countries of the whole world are not in a position to get cumin from a single country except India. Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought. Turkey has exited the international cumin market for the last 2 years. In Afghanistan, cumin has grown by 40 to 50% of the current year. Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival. China's demand for cumin is currently sporadic, with China buying 300 containers of Indian cumin in the month of June, the demand is very low at the moment. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 160.45 Rupees to end at 22092.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.74% to settled at 11736 while prices up 805 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22170 and below same could see a test of 21550 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23180, a move above could see prices testing 23570.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21550-23570.
* Jeera prices gained as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low.
* Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought.
* Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 160.45 Rupees to end at 22092.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.69% at 42400 amid concerns of weak demand after China adopted fresh covid curbs, adding to the already existing global slowdown concerns caused by the aggressive monetary tightening from central bankers. Meanwhile, the USDA slashed the world demand projections by 450 thousand bales in its June report, due to lower consumption from Mexico and Bangladesh, the two major producers of clothing. While on the supply side, it revised higher its production estimates to 121.2 million bales in the next harvest season. Cotton sowing dropped by nearly -0.18% to 84.6 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 84.75 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton sowing in Gujarat fall by nearly -6% with 1,556,683 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 1,650,463 hectares. Cotton sowing in Rajasthan witnessed a gain of 8.11% with 598.14 thousand hectares as against 553.26 thousand hectares on the same day last year. India has extended deadline to import cotton without paying import taxes until Oct. 31 from the earlier cut-off date of Sept. 30, the government said in a notification, as the sowing of the fibre crop delayed in some regions due to patchy monsoon rainfall. In spot market, Cotton gained by 230 Rupees to end at 42630 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.53% to settled at 1312 while prices down -1170 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41710 and below same could see a test of 41030 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43660, a move above could see prices testing 44930.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 41030-44930.
* Cotton dropped amid concerns of weak demand after China adopted fresh Covid curbs, adding to the already existing global slowdown concerns.
* The USDA slashed the world demand projections by 450 thousand bales, due to lower consumption from Mexico and Bangladesh.
* Cotton sowing dropped by nearly -0.18% to 84.6 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 84.75 lakh hectares in 2021.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 230 Rupees to end at 42630 Rupees.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

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