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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 53760 as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy and growth. Surprisingly upbeat US economic data, including better-than-expected ISM services and payroll reports, dashed hopes for a Fed pivot while prompting bets on a higher terminal rate. A resilient US economy and fears of more interest rate increases are countering some optimism around the reopening of the Chinese economy. The US trade gap widened to a four-month high of $78.2 billion in October of 2022, following an upwardly revised $74.1 billion deficit in September and compared to market forecasts of $80 billion. Exports went down 0.7%, a second consecutive monthly fall, to $256.6 billion, the lowest value since May. Sales fell for natural gas, other petroleum products and pharmaceutical preparations but rose for crude oil, soybeans, travel, transport and business services. India’s trade ministry is discussing a reduction in import taxes on gold to rein in illegal shipments. The world’s second-largest consumer of the precious metal, almost all of which is purchased from abroad, has asked the Finance Ministry to consider reducing the tariff to about 10% from 12.5%, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.95% to settle at 16002 while prices are up 255 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53537 and below same could see a test of 53314 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53959, a move above could see prices testing 54158.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 53314-54158.
* Gold gained as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy and growth.
* Surprisingly upbeat US economic data, dashed hopes for a Fed pivot while prompting bets on a higher terminal rate.
* Investors also took stock of easing COVID restrictions in top bullion consumer China.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 65414 amid expectations for a slowdown in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Powell stated that it is likely that the US central bank will slow the aggressiveness of rate hikes this month, easing demand for the dollar and driving investors toward bullion. Besides bullion, softer rate hikes in the US and a cut in the reserve ratio by the PBoC supported expectations of higher demand for industrial silver usage as electricity conductors, tracking the rebound for copper. Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. India’s silver imports have topped a record high of 8,000 tonnes this year on the heels of a rise in jewellery consumption. Silver jewellery consumption, which made up over 50 per cent of the 21 per cent growth in global offtake last year, is expected to increase by 11 per cent this year, surpassing the levels seen in 2019, according to the Silver Institute. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.07% to settle at 17673 while prices are up 228 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65058 and below same could see a test of 64702 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65940, a move above could see prices testing 66466.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64702-66466.
* Silver rose amid expectations for a slowdown in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
* Fed Chairman Powell stated that it is likely that the US central bank will slow the aggressiveness of rate hikes this month.
* Eurozone retail sales dropped 1.8% mom in October, following an upwardly revised 0.8% growth in September


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.08% at 6153 as a stronger U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty offset the bullish impact of a price cap placed on Russian oil and prospects of a demand boost in China. U.S. services industry data indicated a strong U.S. economy. The data reinforced the belief among investors that the Federal Reserve might stick longer with aggressive interest rate rises, supporting the U.S. dollar index. In China, more cities are easing COVID-19-related curbs, prompting optimism for increased demand in the world's top oil importer. The country is set to announce a further relaxation of some of the world's toughest COVID curbs as early as Wednesday. The market was weighing the production impact of a price cap of $60/bbl on Russian crude imposed by the Group of Seven (G7), the European Union and Australia, contributing to market volatility. The price cap comes on top of the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan and Britain. Russia has declared its intention not to sell oil to anyone who signs up to the price cap. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 46.63% to settle at 16308 while prices are down -262 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6049 and below same could see a test of 5944 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6347, a move above could see prices testing 6540.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5944-6540.
* Crude oil prices fall on higher U.S. dollar, economic fears
* Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia might reduce oil production, but not by much.
* Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Oil production in Russia in December 2022 will remain at the November level.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.74% at 453.8 as forecasts for milder weather cast a shadow on demand outlook, hurt by the delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant. Freeport LNG again delayed the restart of the second-biggest U.S. LNG export facility, moving its forecast for resuming processing to year end, pending regulatory approval. The delay is further curtailing gas demand from the export sector. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States remains unchanged this week at 155, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed. At the same time, the US government is stepping up efforts to reduce the risk of a railroad worker strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to burn more gas. Still, US gas futures are up nearly 75% so far this year as overseas demand for LNG remains strong especially from Europe after the war in Ukraine has disrupted gas supply. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 115.7 bcfd this week to 121.4 bcfd next week and 129.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.71% to settle at 16258 while prices are down -12.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 445.4 and below same could see a test of 436.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 466.2, a move above could see prices testing 478.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 436.9-478.5.
* Natural gas extended weakness as forecasts for milder weather cast a shadow on demand outlook.
* Delayed restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant also weighing
* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States remains unchanged this week at 155


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 699.1 as hopes grew that demand will rebound in top consumer China after more cities eased COVID-19 restrictions. The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 46.7 in November 2022 from 48.4 in October, pointing to the 3rd straight month of drop. More cities in China announced an easing of COVID-19 restrictions, with a weak U.S. dollar also lending support to the metal. Amid Beijing's changing narrative on COVID-19's health risks, more cities announced an easing of curbs, lifting large-scale lockdowns, reducing regular tests and ending checks for negative results in public spaces. Chile's total copper production rose 1.4% in October to 477,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said. Production from state-owned giant Codelco fell 5.8% on a yearly basis to 135,800 tonnes, Cochilco said, while output from BHP-controlled Escondida rose 17.7% to 99,700 tonnes. China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, supplementing 20 unveiled in November that set off a wave of COVID easing steps nationwide. Three years of zero-tolerance measures, from shuttered borders to frequent lockdowns, have battered China's economy, fuelling last month the mainland's biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.8% to settle at 5323 while prices are up 5.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 695 and below same could see a test of 690.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 703.9, a move above could see prices testing 708.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 690.8-708.6.
* Copper rises as China COVID easing sparks demand hopes
* China may announce 10 new COVID easing steps on Wednesday
* Chile copper production up 1.4% in October


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.17% at 277.8 as the market confidence was boosted by the signs of relaxing pandemic control measures in China. Zinc ingot social inventory across the seven markets in China totalled 54,500 mt, up 3,400 mt from last Friday, but was still at a low level. China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, supplementing 20 unveiled in November that set off a wave of COVID easing steps nationwide. Three years of zero-tolerance measures, from shuttered borders to frequent lockdowns, have battered China's economy, fuelling last month the mainland's biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012. The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 46.7 in November 2022 from 48.4 in October, pointing to the 3rd straight month of drop. This was also the steepest contraction in the service sector since May, amid anti-COVID containment measures that weighed on demand and operations. The Caixin China General Composite PMI fell to 47.0 in November 2022 from 48.53in October, pointing to the lowest print since May as the Chinese economy was currently bracing for the third wave of COVID infections. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.8% to settle at 3375 while prices are up 3.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 274.5 and below same could see a test of 271.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 281.2, a move above could see prices testing 284.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 271.3-284.7.
* Zinc rose as the market confidence was boosted by the signs of relaxing pandemic control measures in China.
* China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday
* Zinc ingot social inventory across the seven markets in China totalled 54,500 mt, up 3,400 mt from last Friday


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 215.35 as the market confidence was boosted by signals of loosening pandemic control measures. On the supply side, domestic operating aluminium capacity rose but slightly. On the demand side, slowing global economy resulted in few orders received by aluminium fabricators. China may announce 10 new COVID-19 easing measures as early as Wednesday, supplementing 20 unveiled in November that set off a wave of COVID easing steps nationwide. Three years of zero-tolerance measures, from shuttered borders to frequent lockdowns, have battered China's economy, fuelling last month the mainland's biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012. The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 46.7 in November 2022 from 48.4 in October, pointing to the 3rd straight month of drop. New orders fell the most in six months, employment shrank at the steepest rate since the survey began in November 2005, while backlogs rose at the fastest rate in six months. The Caixin China General Composite PMI fell to 47.0 in November 2022 from 48.53in October, pointing to the lowest print since May as the Chinese economy was currently bracing for the third wave of COVID infections. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.48% to settle at 6795 while prices are up 0.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 213.8 and below same could see a test of 212.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217, a move above could see prices testing 218.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 212.1-218.5.
* Aluminum gains amid declining inventories and Smelters in northern China are cutting output to reduce pollution during the winter.
* However, risk appetites dimmed after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November
* Globally, factory output fell in countries including China, Japan and South Korea, although the downturn eased in Europe.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 945.3 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.4 Rupees to end at 1094.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.2% to settle at 902 while prices are up 3.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 939.7 and below same could see a test of 934 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 951.5, a move above could see prices testing 957.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 934-957.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.4 Rupees to end at 1094.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 7868 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7314.65 Rupees dropped -62.6 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.51% to settle at 5100 while prices are down -82 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7828 and below same could see a test of 7788 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7930, a move above could see prices testing 7992.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7788-7992.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7314.65 Rupees dropped -62.6 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 25700 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera sowing around 75% to 80% sowing has been completed in Rajasthan Jeera growing regions, last year till date sowing completed around 85% to 90%. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 81.55 Rupees to end at 24917.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.21% to settle at 4890 while prices are up 65 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25430 and below same could see a test of 25155 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25970, a move above could see prices testing 26235.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 25155-26235.
* Jeera gained amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 81.55 Rupees to end at 24917.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 31690 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales. According to the Punjab Mandi Board data, cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018. Punjab is expected to have produced 20 lakh quintals against 29 lakh quintals produced in the 2021-22 season. Arrivals are lower as farmers are holding cotton in anticipation of higher prices in the near term. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. The latest US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton production and lower global demand estimates for 2022/2023. Production in the US, the world’s largest exporter of cotton, was seen about 1.5% higher, at 14.0 million bales, as a decrease in the Southwest is more than offset by increases elsewhere. Meanwhile, global cotton consumption is projected to be 650,000 bales lower this month, with a 300,000-bale cut to mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -710 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.02% to settle at 2531 while prices are down -80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31600 and below same could see a test of 31520 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31780, a move above could see prices testing 31880.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31520-31880.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales.
* USDA cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton
* Punjab’s cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -710 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.

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