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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 47612 as prices held steady helped by speculation that a spike in coronavirus cases may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to defer its tapering of monetary stimulus. The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant has raised doubts about economic growth, with investors anticipating that the U.S. central bank might delay tapering. The dollar, also considered a ‘safe haven’ asset, stabilised after falling about 0.6%, with traders looking ahead to this week’s Jackson Hole Federal Reserve symposium. Data showed U.S. business activity growth slowed in August, while Asia’s robust economic recovery from last year lost steam. Gold’s latest uptick also came despite outflows from exchange-traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Trust. But physical demand from retail customers seems to be offsetting the gold ETF outflows. Physical gold demand moderated in top hubs as a rebound in domestic prices and a seasonal lull slowed market activity. Indian premiums fell to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies versus last week's $5 premiums. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said he could see the U.S. central bank eventually issuing its own digital currency, calling it the "last mile" in a digitalization of the payment system that is already in train. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.8% to settled at 11890 while prices up 28 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47479 and below same could see a test of 47346 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47738, a move above could see prices testing 47864.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47346-47864.
* Gold prices held steady helped by speculation that a spike in coronavirus cases may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to defer its tapering of monetary stimulus.
* The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant has raised doubts about economic growth
* Many officials present at the Fed meeting believed that inflation has reached target according to July Fed meeting minutes.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 63474 as investors remain concerned that weak economic data may delay the Federal Reserve plans to taper quantitative easing program. US private-sector growth slowed to an 8-month low as weaker recoveries were seen in both the manufacturing and service sectors due to capacity pressures, material shortages and the spread of the Delta variant. Meanwhile, investors' attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week when Fed Chair Powell is expected to announce some tips on the taper timeline. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased in July, but housing market momentum is slowing amid surging prices that are being driven by an acute shortage of properties on the market. New home sales rose 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. June's sales pace was revised up to 701,000 units from the previously reported 676,000 units. A call by China's central bank for more economic support and signs of falling COVID-19 infections in China and India also added to investor optimism over global growth. Amid increasing COVID-19 headwinds, market participants have scaled down their expectations that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this week will indicate a timeline for winding down the Fed's bond-buying program. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.98% to settled at 6324 while prices up 547 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62910 and below same could see a test of 62346 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63864, a move above could see prices testing 64254.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62346-64254.
* Silver remained supported as investors remain concerned that weak economic data may delay the Federal Reserve plans to taper quantitative easing program.
* US private-sector growth slowed to an 8-month low as weaker recoveries were seen in both the manufacturing and service sectors due to capacity pressures
* Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased in July

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.74% at 5021 on a bullish demand outlook as Mexico suffered a big production outage and U.S. regulators issued their first full approval for a COVID-19 vaccine. The U.S. Food and Drug AdministrationFDA, which last December authorised the Pfizer/BioNtech two-dose vaccine for emergency use, has now issued full approval for use in people age 16 and older. Also boosting prices, U.S. crude and gasoline inventories likely declined last week, while distillate stockpiles are expected to have increased. Indian refiners' crude throughput in July bounced to its highest in three months as fuel demand rebounded, which supported prices. Price gains were capped after the U.S. Department of Energy said it would sell up to 20 million barrels of crude from the emergency oil reserve to comply with legislation passed in recent years, with deliveries of the oil to take place between Oct. 1 and Dec. 15. The added supplies from the sale are expected to weigh on sour crude grades in the U.S. Gulf Coast, traders said. Mars crude, the main sour crude sold in the U.S Gulf Coast market, is already at the lowest levels in about a month on oversupply and slow global demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.43% to settled at 4795 while prices up 134 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4924 and below same could see a test of 4827 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5074, a move above could see prices testing 5127.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4827-5127.
* Crude oil rose on a bullish demand outlook as Mexico suffered a big production outage and U.S. regulators issued their first full approval for a COVID-19 vaccine.
* India's July refinery processing highest in three months
* U.S. to sell up to 20 mln barrels of SPR oil

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 288.9 as forecasts for lower demand this week offset an outlook calling for the hot weather and high air conditioning use to continue into early September. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 93.7 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for this week, however, was lower than Refinitiv projected on Monday due to lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and lower power generator demand. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the April-October injection season at 3.558 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on Oct. 31, the lowest since 2018. That compares with a four-year high of 3.929 tcf at the end of the summer injection season in 2020 and a five-year (2016-2020) average of 3.751 tcf. There was 3.326 tcf in storage at the end of October 2018, a 13-year low. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico slipped to an average of 6.1 bcfd so far in August from 6.6 bcfd in July and a record 6.8 bcfd in June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -57.62% to settled at 1872 while prices down -2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 286.5 and below same could see a test of 284.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.8, a move above could see prices testing 296.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 284.2-296.8.
* Natural gas remained in range as forecasts for lower demand this week offset an outlook calling for the hot weather
* Last week, gas speculators boosted their short positions in natural gas futures and options on NYMEX to the highest since June 2020.
* Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 bcfd so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 716.6 as the premium of LME cash copper to the three-month contract was $27.95 a tonne, its biggest since April 23, indicating tightening nearby supplies. The global world refined copper market showed a 2,000 tonnes surplus in May, compared with a 86,000 tonnes deficit in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 80,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 121,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in May was 2.09 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.09 million tonnes. On the macro front, U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s full approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine has eased the market’s worries over economy recovery. Data showed that US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August was both sluggish, with the slowest growth rate in eight months, lowering market expectations for an accelerated tapering monetary policy. US dollar index fell after recording largest weekly gains in two months, lifting non-ferrous metals to the positive territory. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 44.87% to settled at 3516 while prices up 4.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 709.3 and below same could see a test of 701.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 722.1, a move above could see prices testing 727.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 701.9-727.5.
* Copper prices rose as the premium of LME cash copper to the three-month contract was $27.95 a tonne, indicating tightening nearby supplies.
* US FDA’s full approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine has eased the market’s worries over economy recovery.
* The global world refined copper market showed a 2,000 tonnes surplus in May, compared with a 86,000 tonnes deficit in April

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 247.1 as the market’s worries over economy recovery eased after U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s full approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine. In spot market, inventories in two major markets in China added with processing charges rebounding slightly from low. Data showed that US Markit manufacturing and services PMI for August was both sluggish, with the slowest growth rate in eight months, lowering market expectations for an accelerated tapering monetary policy. China’s new home prices rose at the slowest clip in six months in July, as authorities further tightened rules in the red-hot property sector, including limits on some categories of purchases. Average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 0.3% in July from a month earlier, slowing from a 0.5% gain in June, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Separate showed property investment also rose at a slower pace in January-July from a year earlier, amid tightened financing rules. China’s property market rebounded quickly from the COVID-19 crisis last year, triggering concerns about financial risks in an overheated market. The global zinc market was undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June following a revised deficit of 23,500 tonnes in May. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 44.5% to settled at 1117 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 244.5 and below same could see a test of 241.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 248.7, a move above could see prices testing 250.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 241.9-250.3.
* Zinc gained as the market’s worries over economy recovery eased after US FDA’s full approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine.
* In spot market, inventories in two major markets in China added with processing charges rebounding slightly from low.
* China's new home price growth slows as speculative curbs bite

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 1432.7 after a smelter in north China has suspended refined nickel production recently due to high production costs. Demand and supply gap still exists on the fundamentals, and the market shall pay attention to the demand scenario of stainless steel and new energy sectors. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 20,100 tonnes in June compared a shortfall of 23,600 tonnes in May, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first six months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 86,700 tonnes compared with a surplus of 74,200 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. Jilin Jien Nickel, a nickel producer in northeast China, has halted output of nickel cathodes because they are no longer profitable. China, the world's biggest metals consumer, has very few companies still making nickel cathodes as smelters instead choose to produce nickel sulphate, a chemical used in the burgeoning electric vehicle battery sector. China’s central bank injected billions of yuan through medium-term loans into the financial system, which many market participants interpreted as an effort to prop up the economy, although the cost of such borrowing was left unchanged. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.03% to settled at 957 while prices up 10 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1420.4 and below same could see a test of 1408.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1445.3, a move above could see prices testing 1458.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1408.2-1458.
* Nickel prices rose after a smelter in north China has suspended refined nickel production recently due to high production costs.
* Chinese nickel producer Jien halts cathode output
* China cbank offers more medium-term loan than expected to cushion economic slowdown

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 207.35 as prices for alumina have hit their highest in almost six months after a blaze at the Jamalco refinery in Jamaica led to fears of tighter supply. COMEX alumina futures , assessed free-on-board (FOB) from key producer Australia, rose to $302.14 per tonne, up from $300.48 a tonne on Friday and the highest since Feb. 25. Alumina prices have been climbing since mid-April amid strong demand for aluminium and disruption in China due to flooding. One global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $230 per tonne for October-December primary metal shipments, up 24% from the current quarter. Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. For the July-September quarter, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $185 per tonne , up 24-25% from the prior quarter and the highest in more than six years as global demand picks up after a pandemic-induced slump. Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.747 million tonnes in July from an upwardly revised 5.558 million tonnes in June, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 31.21% to settled at 1589 while prices up 1.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.1 and below same could see a test of 204.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.6, a move above could see prices testing 209.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.7-209.7.
* Aluminium prices remained supported as prices for alumina rose after a blaze at the Jamalco refinery in Jamaica led to fears of tighter supply.
* Prices have been climbing amid strong demand for aluminium and disruption in China due to flooding.
* One global aluminium producer seeks Q4 premiums of $230/T

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 924.2 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -21.5 Rupees to end at 1025.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 51.73% to settled at 1050 while prices down -9.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 918.2 and below same could see a test of 912.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 933, a move above could see prices testing 941.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 912.3-941.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -21.5 Rupees to end at 1025.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 8713 as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. Soybean growers from Amravati, Latur and Osmanabad districts have reported the attack of mosaic virus. Meanwhile, soybean has now overtaken cotton to become the number one crop in the state and has been sown on 44.73 lakh hectares. Last year, soybean was sown on some 42 lakh hectares. However upside seen limited amid weakness in overseas prices as forecasts of rains in parts of the U.S. Midwest boosted hopes for better yields. China's soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell in July from the previous year, customs data showed, as poor crush margins weighed on demand. China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, brought in 7.88 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in July, down 3.7% from 8.18 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. For July, China's soybean shipments from all origins totalled 8.67 million tonnes, down 14.1% from the previous year. China also imported 42,277 tonnes of soybeans from the United States in July, up from 38,331 tonnes in the same month a year earlier, according to customs data. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 293 Rupees to 9801 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.14% to settled at 20780 while prices up 83 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 8590 and below same could see a test of 8466 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8893, a move above could see prices testing 9072.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 8466-9072.
* Soyabean prices remained supported as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
* However upside seen limited amid weakness in overseas prices as forecasts of rains in parts of the U.S. Midwest boosted hopes for better yields.
* China's July soybean imports from Brazil drop on poor crush margins
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  293 Rupees to 9801 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 1410.7 supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1420 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.55% to settled at 29750 while prices up 4.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1398 and below same could see a test of 1384 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1423, a move above could see prices testing 1434.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1384-1434.
* Ref soyoil gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier.
* Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1420 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 1185.3 on some low level buying after prices dropped weighed down by industry estimates of an increase in August production amid weak exports. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association forecast an 11.5% month-on-month rise in Aug. 1-20 production. Malaysia's exports during Aug. 1-20 fell 9.9% from the same period in July, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Export shipments during the first half of August had plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month, cargo surveyors data showed. Indonesia's palm oil exports fell 26.8% in June from the same month a year earlier to 2.03 million tonnes due to volatile prices, the country's palm oil association GAPKI said in a statement. Demand from buyers in the European Union, Middle East, India and Pakistan also dropped, GAPKI said. Crude palm oil output rose 9.4% in June from a year earlier to 4.48 million tonnes, according to the data. Indonesia, the world's largest palm exporter, had enjoyed greater demand than Malaysia over July and August, partly due to lower export taxes and higher discounts for its crude and refined palm oil. Top buyer India is also expected to raise their import tax structure for crude and refined palm oil from end-September as subscriptions for the Diwali festival are finalized. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 2 Rupees to end at 1196.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.34% to settled at 3742 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1176.1 and below same could see a test of 1166.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1191.6, a move above could see prices testing 1197.8.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1166.8-1197.8.
* Crude palm oil gained on some low level buying after prices dropped amid an increase in August production amid weak exports.
* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association forecast an 11.5% month-on-month rise in Aug. 1-20 production.
* Malaysia's exports during Aug. 1-20 fell 9.9% from the same period in July, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 2 Rupees to end at 1196.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 8156 on profit booking after prices seen supported as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. A European Union Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of canola/rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22, 200,000 mt higher than the previous crop year. However, mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. Production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 8123.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.89% to settled at 31740 while prices down -9 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8105 and below same could see a test of 8053 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8205, a move above could see prices testing 8253.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 8053-8253.
* Mustard seed dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported s USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production down as drought in the Prairies intensifies.
* EU weekly rapeseed imports jumped by 70% to 127k mt, total at 414k mt
* EU Oilseeds situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 8123.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 8262 as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. However upside seen limited as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7592.5 Rupees gained 42.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.46% to settled at 12960 while prices up 190 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8076 and below same could see a test of 7888 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8376, a move above could see prices testing 8488.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7888-8488.
* Turmeric rose as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains.
* However upside seen limited as the lockdown restrictions were eased reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7592.5 Rupees gained 42.5 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 4.98% at 15395 as a geo-political crisis in the Afghanistan could turn the heat as supply of spices has been halted suddenly. With lower customs duty on products from Afghanistan and long-term supply arrangements in place, traders have refrained from reaching out to alternate destinations, but fear domestic prices might soar. Only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 321.05 Rupees to end at 14584.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.43% to settled at 6144 while prices up 730 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14870 and below same could see a test of 14350 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15690, a move above could see prices testing 15990.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14350-15990.
* Jeera prices rose as a geo-political crisis in the Afghanistan could turn the heat as supply of spices has been halted suddenly.
* Only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 321.05 Rupees to end at 14584.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 26420 as outlook remains supportive amid higher demand from the textile industries. In the domestic market prices are capped as higher supplies in the Gujarat & Maharashtra spot markets due to easing lockdown. Spot prices have not shown any major movement, because monsoon recoveries led to pick up of sowing in various states. Weather may impact soyabean, cotton, sugarcane and paddy crops. High-value and sensitive crops such as soyabean, cotton, sugarcane, and paddy have been affected, he said. In Madhya Pradesh, soyabean crop could be 20 percent in some areas. Cotton sowing is progressing across India for the coming 2021-22 season. Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time. Global Cotton stock for the 2021-22, has been revised lower by 50,000 bales. In the other estimates for 2021-22, as largely offsetting changes in production and consumption do little to offset lower estimated beginning stocks. Exports are 200,000 bales lower than in July, and ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower, equating to 17% of expected use, the same as in 2020/21. Lower production is reducing this month's 2021-22 global ending stocks forecast slightly. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -300 Rupees to end at 26820 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.97% to settled at 1130 while prices up 120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26110 and below same could see a test of 25790 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26640, a move above could see prices testing 26850.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25790-26850.
* Cotton outlook remains supportive amid higher demand from the textile industries.
* Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time.
* Exports are 200,000 bales lower than in July, and ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower, equating to 17% of expected use, the same as in 2020/21.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -300 Rupees to end at 26820 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 5304 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -12.5 Rupees to end at 5300 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.04% to settled at 77840 while prices up 15 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5272 and below same could see a test of 5241 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5322, a move above could see prices testing 5341.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5241-5341.
* Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -12.5 Rupees to end at 5300 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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