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GOLD

It was the last week of the year 2022, as gold traded on a higher note, which helped the yellow metal to conclude the year on a marginally higher note, recouping the loss from the previous year.

Gold has increased by approximately $200 as a result of expectations that the US central bank will slow the rate of interest rate hikes after retracing to more than two-year lows in September. Gains in bullion were constrained because the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rises reduced demand for the non-yielding metal.

In Egypt, the price of gold has risen to previously unheard-of heights as frightened depositors look for refuge from a declining currency, and some business sell bullion to raise cash-strapped dollars to pay for imports.

Outlook: Gold prices are expected to remain elevated given the uncertainties arising from China. However, the US Fed's rate hike trajectory would likely limit the upside.

CRUDE OIL

It was a holiday-shortened week, as most of the markets remained closed for trading. However, the benchmark crude index, NYMEX continued to extend the winning streak, as it ended the week on a higher note and subsequently ended the year on a high too.

Gains have been linked to a rosy rebound in fuel demand as a result of China loosening COVID-19 restrictions. China anticipates that demand for oil will increase as it prepares to reopen its borders next month following three years of severe restrictions to stop the spread of COVID.

Oil prices were on track to post a second consecutive annual gain in a year that saw constrained supply due to the Ukraine crisis, a strong dollar, and sluggish demand from China, the world's largest petroleum importer. Oil prices, which spiked in the first half of this year, fell sharply in the second half as central banks around the world raised interest rates to combat inflation and strengthened the US dollar.

Outlook: Crude prices are likely to remain higher, as China is set to loosen its strict Covid policy and re-open its borders, which might see an increase in demand for crude.

BASE METALS

After a week of positive returns, the metals pack was back in negative territory. Except for Lead, all the other metals ended on a lower note.

Due to the markets' extended holiday weekend break, it was a light trading week. However, when it resumed, the downside pressure pertained, as the metals slipped lower. Following a rise in COVID-19 infections in China and worries about a global economic slowdown, copper prices fell from their two-week highs.

Base metals have largely underperformed for the year ending in 2022 after a robust 2021. On the LME and MCX, Nickel was the only commodity to end the year on a higher note.

The leading copper smelters in China have decided to hold firm on the treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) guiding price for copper concentrate in the first quarter of 2023. To offset the expense of the ore, miners pay TC/RCs to smelters to convert copper concentrate into metal. Charges decrease when the supply is limited and increase when there is more concentration available.

Outlook: Demand optimism on the back of promised stimulus in order to revive the economy, would likely see an uptick in demand for metals. 

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