Commodity Article : Gold slips to 5-month lows; Crude likely to end its long weekly winning streak Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
Below is "Daily Commodity Article" by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currency, Angel One Ltd.
Gold slips to 5-month lows; Crude likely to end its long weekly winning streak.
GOLD
Gold prices hit a five-month low due to rising Treasury yields, a strong dollar, and a hawkish stance on interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed's recent meeting minutes revealed a focus on inflation control, though some noted economic risks from excessive rate hikes.
With U.S. interest rates anticipated to remain elevated, 10-year Treasury yields surged, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
The dollar's strength further impacted gold's performance, maintaining near a two-month peak. These factors collectively dented investor sentiment towards gold, contributing to the decline in its value.
Outlook: We expect gold to trade lower towards 58100 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 58010 levels.
CRUDE
Oil prices faced a setback, poised to end a seven-week winning streak due to apprehensions surrounding China's slowing economy and potential prolonged higher U.S. rates.
While major benchmarks displayed mixed results, Brent experienced a slight dip. The U.S. Federal Reserve's emphasis on curbing inflation amidst robust economic figures was tempering oil values.
Ongoing concerns revolved around rising borrowing costs hindering economic expansion and dampening overall demand, including for oil.
Adding to the unease, recent economic data from China – the world's second-largest oil consumer – highlighted a rapid decline in economic momentum since Q2.
China's economic turbulence has unsettled global markets, with investor worries compounded by property market issues and contagion fears.
Outlook: We expect crude to trade higher towards 6780 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 6510 levels.
BASE METALS
Copper prices rebounded from a 2.5-month low as China's currency recovered on support measures from its central bank, including liquidity injection and state-owned banks selling dollars.
Earlier, concerns over potential U.S. interest rate hikes driven by Federal Reserve minutes had caused copper's decline.
The metal had retreated over 8% since its August high due to these worries.
While July saw a copper surge based on expectations of Chinese stimulus, subsequent government measures' sluggish implementation led to a reversal in fortunes.
The market's response showcased the delicate balance between global economic factors and copper's performance, underscoring its sensitivity to monetary policy and demand dynamics.
Outlook: We expect copper to trade lower towards 720 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 717 levels.
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