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01-01-1970 12:00 AM | Source: Angel One Ltd
Commodity Article : Gold crawls back up; Crude oil settles lower Says Prathamesh Mallya, AngelOne
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Below is "Daily Commodity Article" by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currency, Angel One Ltd.

Gold crawls back up; Crude oil settles lower.

 

GOLD

Gold surged above the $1,900 mark, buoyed by declining U.S. bond yields as investors readied for insights from monetary policymakers at the Jackson Hole symposium.

This rise offers relief to gold, which had reached a five-month low recently, following a pullback from the 16-year high in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields seen on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the euro's decline due to deepening euro zone business activity downturn pushed euro-denominated gold to a two-week peak.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized the Fed's need to remain open to the possibility of an economic re-acceleration rather than slowdown, potentially impacting the ongoing inflation battle.

Outlook: We expect gold to trade higher towards 58970 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 59030 levels.

 

CRUDE

Oil prices slid due to feeble manufacturing data from key economies, offsetting the positive impact of a larger-than-anticipated decline in U.S. crude inventories.

The focus remains on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, where insights into the duration of prevailing interest rates are sought.

Perturbing manufacturing data emerged from various purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys, casting a gloomy outlook on global economies and raising demand worries.

Japan saw its factory activity contract for a third consecutive month in August, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, witnessed a more significant decline than anticipated.

The UK's economy is on the verge of recession as its activity shrinks, and the U.S. registered sluggish growth, nearing stagnation, with the weakest expansion since February.

Despite ongoing U.S. sanctions, Iran anticipates reaching a crude oil output of 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of September, as reported by the country's oil minister via state media.

Outlook: We expect crude to trade lower towards 6470 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 6390 levels.

 

BASE METALS

Copper prices in London climbed as demand prospects from China, the top consumer, brightened, coupled with a retreat of the U.S. dollar following a survey indicating a dip in U.S. consumer demand.

The metal's positive momentum is attributed to surprisingly favorable copper consumption data in China, speculations of additional support measures from the Chinese government, and yuan's strengthening against the dollar due to currency intervention.

With monitored stockpiles hovering just above a 15-year low, copper, used notably in power and construction, receives added backing.

However, the Eurozone witnessed a deeper-than-anticipated downturn in business activity, particularly in Germany, while the U.S. experienced sluggish growth, nearing stagnation in August, marked by contraction in the service sector's new business demand.

S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI index, which tracks manufacturing and services, aligns with the Federal Reserve's desire for cooled activity to address inflation concerns.

Outlook: We expect copper to trade higher towards 743 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 745 levels

 

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