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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -2.3% at 46715 as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields gained and markets awaited clarity on U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. Pressure also seen as solid ADP private payrolls data triggered hopes of a labor market recovery in the world's largest economy and the House's approval of a budget resolution cleared the path for the Covid-19 relief plan. Payroll processor ADP released a report showing a much stronger than expected rebound in private sector employment in the month of January. ADP said private sector employment jumped by 174,000 jobs in January after decreasing by a revised 78,000 jobs in December. A separate report released by the Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. service sector activity unexpectedly grew at an accelerated rate in the month of January. The ISM said its services PMI inched up to 58.7 in January from a revised 57.7 in December. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the budget resolution in a 218-212 vote on Wednesday, with the Senate vote scheduled later this week. After the passage in both chambers, Democrats will start crafting a budget reconciliation bill, which would allow them to push stimulus legislation. Investors remain hopeful after Democrats pushed ahead with a maneuver to pass U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package without Republican support. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.58% to settled at 14300 while prices down -1101 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46327 and below same could see a test of 45938 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47389, a move above could see prices testing 48062.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 45938-48062.

* Gold slipped as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields gained and markets awaited clarity on U.S. fiscal stimulus measures.

* Cleveland Fed President Mester: Optimistic about the economy once vaccines rolled out

* Fed's Evans: Optimistic on economy outlook however inflation remains far too low

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -2.55% at 66818 as prices continue to lose ground as rising inflation expectations, fiscal stimulus hopes and vaccine progress buoy yields. Renewed stimulus hopes led longer-dated US Treasury yields to climb as expectations for future demand, output and inflation rose. The US dollar traded higher against most of the major currencies on the back of better than expected data and uptick in Treasury yields. Ten year Treasury yields rose more than 4% while the 30 year rate rose to its highest level since March 2020. Vaccine optimism continues to keep US assets in demand but the sharp rise in ADP and higher ISM services report helps as well. The employment component rose to 55.2 from 48.7, a sharp improvement that represents a return of jobs. Euro extended its slide against the US dollar despite better than expected economic data which goes to show that once sentiment shifts, it can have a lasting impact on a currency. Eurozone PMIs were revised higher in the month of January but the big surprise was inflation which jumped at the start of the year. The annualized core inflation rate rose from 0.2% to 1.4%, easily surpassing the 0.9% forecast. With non-farm payrolls scheduled for release on Friday, today’s reports give us plenty of reasons to expect hiring to resume at the start of the New Year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at 12384 while prices down -1747 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66030 and below same could see a test of 65243 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67894, a move above could see prices testing 68971.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65243-68971.

* Silver prices continue to lose ground as rising inflation expectations, fiscal stimulus hopes and vaccine progress buoy yields.

* Renewed stimulus hopes led longer-dated US Treasury yields to climb as expectations for future demand, output and inflation rose.

* Fed's Evans: Important to "look through" temporary price increases

Crude oil     

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 4110 after the OPEC+ alliance of major producers stuck to a reduced output policy at a meeting, and as crude stockpiles in the United States fell to their lowest levels since March last year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, extended its current oil output policy at a meeting on Wednesday, a sign that producers are happy that their deep supply cuts are draining inventories despite an uncertain outlook for a recovery in demand as the coronavirus pandemic lingers. Oil has rallied from historic lows hit last year, thanks to record OPEC+ output cuts that the group is starting to unwind. Also supporting prices, U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 994,000 barrels last week to 475.7 million barrels, their lowest since March, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. While refinery utilisation rates rose by 0.6 percentage points to 82.3% of capacity, U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels, EIA said. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia is aiming to be 100% compliant with its deal with OPEC and other leading oil producers to reduce output to support the global oil market. Novak also said that it was important to watch the oil output of producers that are not members of the deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, known as OPEC+. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.01% to settled at 3259 while prices up 40 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4061 and below same could see a test of 4012 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4139, a move above could see prices testing 4168.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4012-4168.

* Crude oil prices rose after the OPEC+ alliance of major producers stuck to a reduced output policy at a meeting.

* U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 994,000 barrels last week to 475.7 million barrels, their lowest since March, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

* While refinery utilisation rates rose by 0.6 percentage points to 82.3% of capacity, U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels, EIA said.

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.86% at 208.2 on forecasts for much colder weather in mid February and a big storage draw last week. That small increase comes despite forecasts for a little less heating demand this week and next than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled 192 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the colder than normal week ended Jan. 29. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.689 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which is still 7.9% above the five-year average of 2.491 tcf for this time of year. In the spot market, meanwhile, cold weather this week boosted next-day gas and power in New England to their highest since December 2019 for a second day in row. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.0 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise to 138.5 bcfd next week from 127.4 bcfd this week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.94% to settled at 7225 while prices up 3.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 201.9 and below same could see a test of 195.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.1, a move above could see prices testing 216.1.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 195.7-216.1.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for much colder weather in mid February and a big storage draw last week.

* That small increase comes despite forecasts for a little less heating demand this week and next than previously expected.

* EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 192 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the colder than normal week ended Jan. 29.

Copper     

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 596.55 as euro zone’s economic downturn deepened in January as coronavirus-induced lockdown measures hit the services industry. However downside seen limited boosted by easing liquidity worries in China and as solid economic data and progress on stimulus in the United States raised hopes of a global economic recovery. U.S. data showed private payrolls rebounding more than expected in January, while service activities also improved strongly, pointing to signs of a recovery in the world's biggest economy. Adding to the optimism, the U.S. Congress pushed ahead with a maneuver to pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. In China, a central bank official said the People's Bank of China will keep liquidity reasonably ample, easing money supply worries in the world's top metals consumer. Meanwhile, a recent coronavirus outbreak in China has dampened the country's economic activities in January, dragging factory output and service activities growth to multi-month lows. Yangshan copper premium rose to its highest since August 2020 at $73 a tonne, amid disrupted supplies from top producer Chile. LME cash copper was last at a $10-a-tonne premium over the three-month contract, a level unseen since September 2020, indicating tight supplies of nearby contracts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.56% to settled at 3285 while prices down -0.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 593.7 and below same could see a test of 590.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 600.1, a move above could see prices testing 603.7.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 590.9-603.7.

* Copper prices dropped as euro zone’s economic downturn deepened in January as coronavirus-induced lockdown measures hit the services industry.

* U.S. data showed private payrolls rebounding more than expected in January, while service activities also improved strongly

* Adding to the optimism, the U.S. Congress pushed ahead with a maneuver to pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package.

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 209.45 after data showed a steep drop in U.S. labor productivity in the fourth quarter and a sharp increase in unit labor costs. However downside seen limited amid tight zinc concentrate supply, strong demand for galvanised plate and optimism over zinc consumption after the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. In addition, Democrats in the US Congress took the first steps toward advancing President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan without Republican support, which also boosted market sentiment. Driven by upbeat US ISM services and ADP employment data, Fed officials expect unemployment rate to fall rapidly. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the zinc market was in surplus by 356 kt during January to November 2020 which compares with a deficit of 76 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Global refined production rose by 0.9% and demand was 2.7% lower than the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese apparent demand was, at 344.6 kt, 27 per cent below the equivalent total for January to November 2019. World demand was 340 kt lower than for January to November 2019. China's refined zinc output in December fell from November mainly due to smelters’ routine maintenance and decreased zinc products of smelters led by weaker hot-galvanising alloy orders. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.08% to settled at 1834 while prices up 0.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 208 and below same could see a test of 206.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.6, a move above could see prices testing 211.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 206.6-211.8.

* Zinc pared gains after data showed a steep drop in U.S. labor productivity in the fourth quarter and a sharp increase in unit labor costs.

* However downside seen limited amid tight zinc concentrate supply, strong demand for galvanised plate and optimism over zinc consumption

* The zinc market was in surplus by 356 kt during January to November 2020 which compares with a deficit of 76 kt recorded previous year.

Nickel     

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 1282.2 as prices traded in range as the dollar traded near a two-month high as investors looked to a widening disparity between the strength of the U.S. and Europe’s pandemic recoveries. The view was bolstered by moves in Washington toward fast-tracking more stimulus spending that contrasted with concerns about extended European lockdowns and expectations for a decline in euro zone growth this quarter. PT Vale Indonesia said in a statement its production of nickel matte in 2020 rose by 2% to 72,237 tonnes. In 2019 it produced 71,025 tonnes, it said. In the fourth quarter of 2020 to December 31 it produced 16,445 tonnes, down 16% from the third quarter due to scheduled maintenance, World Bureau Of Metal Statistics (WBMS) data showed that the global nickel market was in surplus during January to November 2020 with production exceeding apparent demand by 53.6 kt. In the whole of 2019, the calculated deficit was 27.6 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of November 2020 were 88.2 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to November 2020 totalled 2190.8 kt and demand was 2137.2 kt. Mine production during January to November was 2078.8 kt, 285 kt below the comparable 2019 total. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 1733 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1274.7 and below same could see a test of 1267.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1289.1, a move above could see prices testing 1296.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1267.2-1296.

* Nickel prices traded in range as the dollar traded near a two-month high as investors looked to a widening disparity between the strength of the U.S.

* PT Vale Indonesia said in a statement its production of nickel matte in 2020 rose by 2% to 72,237 tonnes.

* WBMS data showed that the global nickel market was in surplus during January to November 2020

Aluminium       

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 162.15 boosted by easing liquidity worries in China and as solid economic data and progress on stimulus in the United States raised hopes of a global economic recovery. Markit’s final composite PMI reading for January, a useful gauge for economic health, came in at 47.8 last month compared to 49.1 in December. Investors looked to a widening disparity between the strength of the U.S. and Europe’s pandemic recoveries. The view was bolstered by moves in Washington toward fast-tracking more stimulus spending that contrasted with concerns about extended European lockdowns and expectations for a decline in euro zone growth this quarter. According to a latest update from the World Bureau Of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the calculated market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to November 2020 was a surplus of 2081 kt which follows a surplus of 448 kt recorded for the whole of 2019. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2020 was 59.11 million tonnes, 583 kt less than in the comparable period in 2019. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.43% to settled at 801 while prices up 0.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 161.8 and below same could see a test of 161.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 162.6, a move above could see prices testing 162.9.

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 161.3-162.9.

*  Aluminium gained boosted by easing liquidity worries in China and solid economic data raised hopes of a global economic recovery

*  Market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to November 2020 was a surplus of 2081 kt - WBMS

* Investors looked to a widening disparity between the strength of the U.S. and Europe’s pandemic recoveries.

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 964.6 due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1092.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 74 while prices down -0.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959.7 and below same could see a test of 954.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 968.6, a move above could see prices testing 972.7. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 954.9-972.7.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1092.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 4632 as prices seen supported following improved demand from China, dry weather in Brazil, slower than expected pace of harvest in the US due to crop damage. Rising export demand for Soymeal and healthy domestic demand for Soy oil against lower mandi arrivals supported positive market sentiments. Arrival of new season crop has started. However, the pace of arrival is slower than expected. SOPA slashed down Soybean production estimates for 2020-21 season by 15% to 104.55 lakh tonnes from its first advance estimates of 122.47 lakh tonnes released on 21 August 2020 based on the survey conducted by their teams at various locations between 1-7 October 2020. Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2020-21 marketing year (February 2021 - January 2022) has made the slowest progress in a decade as unrelenting rains hampered field activities. Soybean farmers in the South American nation had been able to harvest only 1.9% of the projected acreage as of Jan. 28, compared with 8.9% last year. As per USDA report global soybean production is estimated to increase by 8% to 3621 lakh tonnes, while world soybean consumption is also expected to increase by 4% to 3697 Lakh tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4715 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.85% to settled at 84915 while prices up 33 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4609 and below same could see a test of 4587 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4654, a move above could see prices testing 4677.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4587-4677.

* Soyabean gained as prices seen supported following improved demand from and US crop damage

* Arrival of new season crop has started, however the pace of arrival is slower than expected.

* Brazilian soybean harvest at slowest pace in a decade on incessant rains

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4715 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref soyoil     

Ref soyoil settled flat amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1104.55 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.38% to settled at 35270 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1096 and below same could see a test of 1092 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1107, a move above could see prices testing 1114.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1092-1114.

* Ref soyoil settled flat as amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. 

* Government of India, lowered basic import duty on soybean oil to 15% from 35%. 

*  Export of Oilmeals Doubled in December 2020

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1104.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 976 tracking rise in Malaysian palm oil as traders anticipated further inventory declines in January. Palm prices have risen in the past year due to a supply crunch in Malaysia brought about by poor weather and infrastructure issues. Indonesia produced 47 million tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO) last year and exported 34 million tonnes of the vegetable oil and its refined products, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), said. The CPO output from the world's top palm oil producer was down 1% from a year earlier while exports fell 9%, the group said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January fell between 32% and 37% from December, cargo surveyors said. January shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season rose to 3.38 million tonnes by Jan. 31, compared with 3.29 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 12.3 Rupees to end at 979.2 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.35% to settled at 6322 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 968.4 and below same could see a test of 960.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 985.5, a move above could see prices testing 994.9.  

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 960.7-994.9.

* Crude palm oil gains tracking rise in Malaysian palm oil as traders anticipated further inventory declines in January.

* Indonesia's 2020 palm oil exports down 9% – palm oil association

* Palm prices have risen in the past year due to a supply crunch in Malaysia brought about by poor weather and infrastructure issues.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 12.3 Rupees to end at 979.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 4% at 5876 as mustard crop is delayed due to cold over northern India. New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis. In Rajasthan, due to excess moisture in the new crop, milling is not happening because for adulteration millers nor having old mustard crop. The most important oilseed crop-mustard production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare, which is significantly higher than last year's sowing area of 69.08 lakh hectare and the normal average area of 59.44 lakh hectare. Earlier, the area under mustard was 69.17 lakh hectare in 2018-19 season, 67.04 lakh hectare in 2017-18, 70.67 lakh hectare in 2016-17 and 64.61 lakh hectare in 2015-16. Mustard crop is in good condition in most of the major producing states and its average yield rate and quality are expected to improve. As a result, the total production of mustard can reach a new record level. The chairman of a leading industry organization has estimated the gross production to reach 100 lakh tonnes, while the possibility of production is generally 80–90 lakh tonnes. The government (Ministry of Agriculture) has set a target of producing 125 lakh tonnes of mustard, but there is doubt about its achievement. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6474.25 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.38% to settled at 13140 while prices up 226 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5744 and below same could see a test of 5612 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5942, a move above could see prices testing 6008.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5612-6008.

* Mustard prices ended with gains as mustard crop is delayed due to cold over northern India.

* Mustard production expected to reach new record level

* Mustard production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6474.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric       

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.81% at 6662 as apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6483.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.22% to settled at 8980 while prices up 182 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6500 and below same could see a test of 6336 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6758, a move above could see prices testing 6852.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6336-6852.

* Turmeric prices remained supported as apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.

* But apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6483.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.93% at 13075 as arrival quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more. The season progresses in Gujarat, the increase in Rabi sowing continues. The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up. The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare, but its 15.50 percent more than 4.06 lakh hectare as per Five Year Average Area. The production area of cumin in Rajasthan has increased from 6.41 lakh hectare to 6.85 lakh hectare. The weather condition is good this time in both the provinces of Gujarat and Rajasthan and till now the crop has not faced any natural disaster. The average yield rate of cumin may increase if the weather is favorable in February-March. Prices have remained largely stable due to better domestic and export demand in cumin. The total production of cumin is likely to be around last year. An average daily arrival of 10-20 bags of new cumin seeds and 30-40 bags of new fennel is coming in Unjha Mandi. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12870.6 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.86% to settled at 1182 while prices up 120 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 12990 and below same could see a test of 12905 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13140, a move above could see prices testing 13205.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 12905-13205.

* Jeera prices gained as arrival quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more.

* The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare

* The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 12870.6 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 21240 as support seen after CAI said India's imposition of 10% duty on cotton imports is unlikely to dent buying. The 10% import duty imposed by the world's biggest cotton producer was announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget speech. Indian textile mills have already imported 600,000 bales of cotton in the 2020/21 marketing year that started on Oct. 1, with a further 800,000 bales likely to be sourced from outside the country during the rest of the season, Ganatra said. The country is expected to produce 36 million bales in the current marketing year, against local demand of 33 million bales, though supply of extra long staple cotton is negligible, the CAI says. A committee on cotton production and consumption of the Central Textile Ministry has revised the data of cotton crop. According to the committee, production of 371 lakh bales is estimated in 2020-21. Earlier it was estimated to produce 358.50 lakh bales. Last year, in 2019-20, production of 365 lakh bales was done. According to the latest estimates, in Gujarat, the highest cotton project of 90.5 lakh bales has been done in 2020-21. Production per hectare is also high in Gujarat. According to the projection, Gujarat will produce 676.86 kg of cotton per hectare, while India's average cotton yield is estimated at 486.76 kg per hectare. In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 20920 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 6590 while prices up 110 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21140 and below same could see a test of 21040 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21300, a move above could see prices testing 21360.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21040-21360.

* Cotton prices gains as support seen after CAI said India's imposition of 10% duty on cotton imports is unlikely to dent buying.

* The 10% import duty imposed by the world's biggest cotton producer was announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman

* Production of 371 lakh bales is estimated in 2020-21. Earlier it was estimated to produce 358.50 lakh bales.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 20920 Rupees.

Chana      

Chana yesterday settled up by 2.44% at 4656 on short covering after prices dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4580.65 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.16% to settled at 33330 while prices up 111 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4566 and below same could see a test of 4475 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4709, a move above could see prices testing 4761.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4475-4761.

* Chana prices gained on short covering after prices dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. 

* In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. 

*  Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4580.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com