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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 44218 as the dollar firmed with U.S. bond yields resuming their climb, denting bullion's appeal. Some support seen earlier in the day as a passage of the long awaited $1.9 trillion U.S. coronavirus relief package boosted the metal's appeal. The U.S. Senate passed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan. Fed’s Powell repeated his pledge to keep credit loose and said although the rise in yields was "notable", he did not consider it a "disorderly" move. Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation, likely from extensive stimulus. Further supporting bullion, U.S. 10-year yields held below a one-year peak hit on Friday, while the dollar eased. U.S. central bankers on Friday signaled they do not plan to touch the dial on their super-easy policy for some time, expressing little concern over the rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields in recent weeks. The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in February as falling new COVID-19 infections and additional pandemic relief money from the government boosted hiring. Retail consumers in India continued to buy up physical gold last week as prices retreated to a near one-year low, while lower rates also injected fresh activity in other hubs, especially Singapore. Speculators cut their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts in the week to March 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.59% to settled at 12105 while prices down -465 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 43986 and below same could see a test of 43753 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44616, a move above could see prices testing 45013.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 43753-45013.

* Gold prices retreated as the dollar firmed with U.S. bond yields resuming their climb, denting bullion's appeal.

* The U.S. Senate passed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan.

* Speculators cut their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts, the U.S. CFTC said

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 65852 as the dollar firmed up, as bond yields rose on growth and inflation expectations. The dollar index remained supported amid hopes for faster economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic after the US Senate has approved a sweeping pandemic relief package and now heads back to the House for final passage, which could come as early as this week. On the data front, the February US payroll report came in stronger than expected while Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily but still made a very dovish pledge to maintaining its current ultra-accommodative policy until the economy reaches full employment and inflation is at 2%. Eurozone retail sales declined more than expected in January as strict restrictions to contain the spread of the Covid-19 dampened demand for non-food products, data from Eurostat showed. Another official report showed that the jobless rate in the currency bloc remained unchanged in January. Germany's factory orders growth exceeded expectations in January underpinned by robust foreign demand, data from Destatis revealed. Factory orders expanded 1.4 percent month-on-month in January, reversing a revised 2.2 percent fall in the previous month. Orders were forecast to climb 0.7 percent. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.22% to settled at 12184 while prices up 249 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65189 and below same could see a test of 64525 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66575, a move above could see prices testing 67297.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 64525-67297.

* Silver prices pared gains as the dollar firmed up, as bond yields rose on growth and inflation expectations.

* The dollar index remained supported amid hopes for faster economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic

* The US Senate has approved a sweeping pandemic relief package and now heads back to the House for final passage, which could come as early as this week.

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.55% at 4769 as investors shrug off reports of attacks on oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, including a Saudi Aramco facility at Ras Tanura vital to petroleum exports. China's crude oil imports for the first two months of 2021 reached 89.57 million tonnes, up 4.1% from a year ago and up 9.5% from the same period in 2019, bolstered by solid fuel demand and expanded refining capacity in the country. Shipment of crude oil in January and February is equivalent to 11.08 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data published by the General Administration of Customs. Customs did not reveal a break down for individual months. Saudi Arabia's state oil producer Aramco set its April official selling price (OSP) for its Arab Light crude to Asia at plus $1.40 per barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average, up $0.40 from March, according to a statement. It set its Arab Light OSP to Northwest Europe at minus $2.20 per barrel against ICE Brent compared with minus $0.50 in March. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 3,323 contracts to 399,220 during the period. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.18% to settled at 4116 while prices down -75 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4691 and below same could see a test of 4613 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4907, a move above could see prices testing 5045.

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4613-5045.

* Crude oil dropped as investors shrug off reports of attacks on oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, including a Saudi Aramco facility at Ras Tanura vital to petroleum exports.

* China's crude oil imports for the first two months of 2021 reached 89.57 million tonnes, up 4.1% from a year ago

* Speculators cut U.S. crude oil net longs-CFTC

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.37% at 194.5 on forecasts for mild weather through late March. The fall came despite forecasts for higher-than-expected demand over the next two weeks as low gas prices prompt power generators to burn more gas and less coal to produce electricity. Forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in March prompted speculators to cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week for the first time since December. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states had averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March. That compares with a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise to 105.7 bcfd next week from 105.4 bcfd this week as power generators burn more gas instead of coal. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 10.3 bcfd in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd hit in December. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.23% to settled at 8428 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 191.6 and below same could see a test of 188.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.7, a move above could see prices testing 202.9. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 188.7-202.9.

* Natural gas slipped on forecasts for mild weather through late March.

* The fall came despite forecasts for higher-than-expected demand over the next two weeks as low gas prices prompt power generators to burn more gas

* Speculators cut their net long positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week for the first time since December.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 696.05 on expectations of a faster economic recovery and higher capital inflows into markets after the U.S. Senate passed a long-awaited $1.9-trillion coronavirus stimulus bill. China's copper imports rose 4.7% for the first two months of 2021 from a year earlier, customs data showed, indicating stronger demand for the metal than in a pandemic-depressed early 2020 despite a recent spike in prices. Arrivals of unwrought copper and products into top consumer China were 884,010 tonnes in January and February combined, up from 844,723 tonnes a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said. Customs combines data for January and February due to the distortion of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which this year fell in mid-February. Activity in China's manufacturing sector, a key copper consumer, rose less than expected in January and February as a slight resurgence in COVID-19 cases led to renewed restrictions. China's imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, totalled 3.79 million tonnes for the two months, up 0.9% year on year. High waves at ports in top copper producer Chile disrupted exports of concentrate and copper metal for most of January, while a 14.5% year-to-date rise in copper prices , which hit a 9-1/2 year high of $9,617 a tonne on Feb. 25, is set to hurt consumption. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.33% to settled at 3647 while prices up 5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 683.6 and below same could see a test of 671.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 702.8, a move above could see prices testing 709.6.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 671.2-709.6.

* Copper prices gains on expectations of a faster economic recovery and higher capital inflows into markets

* China Jan – Feb copper imports rise 5% y/y despite price spike

* Citi raises Q2 2021 copper price forecast to $10,000/t

Zinc      

"Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 219.35 as prices traded in range after Zinc inventories in China rose over the weekend while the growth rate narrowed. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 2,100 mt from last Friday March 5 to 261,000 mt as of Monday March 8. The stocks were down 3,400 mt. China's refined zinc output stood at 471,200 mt in February, falling 71,100 mt or down 13.1% on month and up 4.03% on year. For January-February, output totalled 1.01 million mt, up 3.26% from the same period last year. Zinc smelters produced 71,700 mt of zinc alloy in January, down 8.72% from the previous month. Among them, mineral zinc output stood at 394,745 mt in February, and secondary zinc output stood at 15,750 mt. Zinc treatment charges that miners pay to smelters to refine concentrate are expected to fall to $200 a tonne for 2021 from $300 a year ago due to tight mine supply. Treatment charges (TCs) fall when mine output decreases and smelters compete to get concentrate to process. Zinc is used to galvanise steel. The supply of concentrates fell when the coronavirus disrupted mining activity last year, creating a deficit that analysts expect to disappear this year. 

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.09% to settled at 1915 while prices up 1.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 217.1 and below same could see a test of 214.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.7, a move above could see prices testing 221.9."      

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.7-221.9.

* Zinc gains combined with the expectation that the US House of Representatives is expected to pass the US$ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill

* China's refined zinc output fell 13.1% on the month to 471,200 mt in February

*  Zinc treatment charges that miners pay to smelters to refine concentrate are expected to fall to $200 a tonne for 2021 from $300 a year ago

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 1201.2 as investors reacted to last week's US jobs report that trounced expectations and fueled hopes for a faster economic recovery. US nonfarm data for February was released, and the employment population increased by 379,000. The nonfarm data far exceeded expectations, which boosted the prospects of economic recovery. The market hoped that Biden would launch a 1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and investors' confidence in sustained economic recovery helped prices. China’s nickel sulphate output declined 5.86% from January but surged 132.91% on the year, to 68,500 mt or 15,100 mt in nickel content in February. This included 60,900 mt of battery-grade materials and 7,600 mt of electroplating materials. Output slid at some nickel salts plants in February due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday or shortages of raw materials. A large nickel salts plants which had previously suspended its nickel sulphate lines due to accidents did not recover till the end of February. China’s nickel sulphate output to increase 15.19% from February and 65.22% from a year ago to 17,400 mt Ni in March, as nickel salts plants have resumed production. In addition, premiums of battery-grade nickel sulphate against nickel briquette hit a new high in nearly three years as nickel prices tumbled recently, which prompted nickel sulphate downstream buyers to purchase nickel briquette. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.27% to settled at 1789 while prices up 9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1183.5 and below same could see a test of 1165.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1210.8, a move above could see prices testing 1220.4.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1165.8-1220.4.

* Nickel prices gained as investors reacted to US jobs report that trounced expectations and fueled hopes for a faster economic recovery.

* China’s nickel sulphate output declined 5.86% from January but surged 132.91% on the year, to 68,500 mt

* China’s nickel sulphate output to increase 15.19% from February and 65.22% from a year ago to 17,400 mt Ni in March

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.22% at 174.6 as inflation expectations and strong nonfarm data have further provided momentum for the dollar to rise. China's exports of unwrought aluminium and products, which last year slumped to their lowest since 2017 as the pandemic sapped demand for Chinese metal, rose 25.9% in the January-February period to 842,125 tonnes. Chinese exports rose in February, continuing a surge recorded in the first two months of 2021. The upward trend reflects strong global demand for manufactured goods, but the figures are partly skewed by the low base in 2020 when the economy shut down due to COVID-19. General Administration of Customs data said that exports climbed 60.6% year-on-year in February, above the 38.9% growth in forecasts and the 18.1% growth recorded in January. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, rose 91,000 mt from the prior week to 1.17 million mt as of March 4, and stocks in Wuxi, Nanhai and Gongyi mainly contributed to the increase. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China rose 7,000 mt from the previous week to 246,300 mt as of March 4. Stocks dropped by 6,700 mt in Nanchang, but increased in other areas. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.43% to settled at 945 while prices down -2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 172.8 and below same could see a test of 170.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 177.1, a move above could see prices testing 179.5.           

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 170.9-179.5.

* Aluminium prices dropped as inflation expectations and strong nonfarm data have further provided momentum for the dollar to rise.

* China's exports of unwrought aluminium and products, rose 25.9% in the January-February period to 842,125 tonnes.

* Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, rose 91,000 mt

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 955.2 on low level buying amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1095.4 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.92% to settled at 49 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.2 and below same could see a test of 951.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 958, a move above could see prices testing 960.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.2-960.8.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1095.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.

*  Mentha oil gains on low level buying amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

*  The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean       

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.92% at 5142 as dry weather in key supplier Argentina buoyed the market. Concerns increased over crops in Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter, as Commodity Weather Group said a rain deficit was seen "leading to severe yield loss" for 30% of the soy belt in the coming 10 days. Weather firm Maxar said below-normal rains are forecast in Argentina over the next 15 days, stressing second-crop soybeans. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, cut their net long position in soybeans. World’s soybean exports were raised by 0.6 million tons to 169.7 million on higher exports from the United States and Russia. Higher imports for Argentina were partially offset by reductions for the EU-27+UK, Canada, and Bangladesh. Global soybean stocks were reduced 1.0 million tons to 83.4 million as lower stocks in the United States and Brazil more than offset higher stocks in Argentina. The major global soybean supplies are tight on soybeans therefore it will be important to asses that whether there will be scope for increasing US or world’s export estimate in the upcoming report, and further lowering of the US or global soybean carryover. Last month’s estimate for US soybean carryover was 120 million bushels. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5404 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.76% to settled at 141535 while prices up 97 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5101 and below same could see a test of 5061 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5192, a move above could see prices testing 5243.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5061-5243.

*  Soyabean gained as dry weather in key supplier Argentina buoyed the market as concerns increased over crops in Argentina

* World’s soybean exports were raised by 0.6 million tons to 169.7 million on higher exports from the United States and Russia.

* The major global soybean supplies are tight on soybeans

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5404 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil     

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.22% at 1227.3 amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1236.4 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.66% to settled at 45135 while prices up 26.7 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1213 and below same could see a test of 1199 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1238, a move above could see prices testing 1249. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1199-1249.

*  Ref soyoil prices gained amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil

*    Very heavy rains remain in the forecast for Brazil's northern soybean belt, where farmers are trying to harvest the soybean crop.

*    A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. 

*   At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1236.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 1097.6 buoyed by a rally in rival soyoil, crude and world markets on passage of a U.S. stimulus package, while investors also awaited the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data. The market is now awaiting for the February supply and demand data by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, and cargo surveyor data on March 1-10 exports due Wednesday. India has imported more than 500,000 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia last month out of its overall edible oil imports of about 1.07 million tonnes. According to figures released by an industry group, the imports from Malaysia comprised 497,337 tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO), 9,204 tonnes of crude palm kernel oil and 2,701 tonnes of RBD palm oil. India's CPO imports from Malaysia last month were more than 23 per cent higher than the December purchase, the Solvent Extractors' Association said. The palm oil import was 58 per cent in December last year. However, there was a sharp drop in the soybean import that resulted in the reduction of the share of soft oils versus palm oil in January. Edible oil imports fell to 1.07 million tonnes last month from about 1.32 million tonnes in December. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 39.1 Rupees to end at 1106 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.31% to settled at 6920 while prices up 19.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1091.2 and below same could see a test of 1084.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1104.5, a move above could see prices testing 1111.4.

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1084.8-1111.4.

* Crude palm oil gains buoyed by a rally in rival soyoil, crude and world markets on passage of a U.S. stimulus package

* The market is now awaiting for the February supply and demand data by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, due on Wednesday

* India has imported more than 500,000 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia last month out of its overall edible oil imports of about 1.07 million tonnes.

*  In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 39.1 Rupees to end at 1106 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.14% at 5588 due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. However upside seen limited as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5791.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.09% to settled at 53890 while prices up 117 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5495 and below same could see a test of 5403 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5682, a move above could see prices testing 5777.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5403-5777.

* Mustard seed gained due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.

* However upside seen limited as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.

* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5791.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.99% at 8894 as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8018.4 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.81% to settled at 8685 while prices down -370 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8708 and below same could see a test of 8524 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9262, a move above could see prices testing 9632.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8524-9632.

* Turmeric dropped as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

* The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8018.4 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera       

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 14015 as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13516.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.19% to settled at 3510 while prices down -10 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13925 and below same could see a test of 13840 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14125, a move above could see prices testing 14240.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13840-14240.

* Jeera settled flat as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content.

* However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature.

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13516.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 22240 as global cotton stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as consumption is set to outpace production. The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2m tonnes to 24.5m tonnes, and while the projected 7% year-over-year increase is not nearly enough to offset the losses caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is expected to outpace production, thus drawing stocks down by the end of the season. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), stock levels are forecast to be down 1% on last year. Meanwhile, the Secretariat is projecting an increase in global trade. Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton and the latter due to a decrease in domestic production. Cotton prices in the country have risen by more than 15 per cent from its MSP after the price of cotton in the global market and farmers are no longer dependent on the purchase of government agencies. Atul Gantra, president of the Cotton Association of India, says that white gold has really become gold for farmers this year. In spot market, Cotton gained by 100 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.42% to settled at 7848 while prices up 90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22190 and below same could see a test of 22140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22290, a move above could see prices testing 22340.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 22140-22340.

* Cotton prices gained as global cotton stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1m tonnes by the end of 2020/21

* The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2m tonnes to 24.5m tonnes

* Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 100 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees.

Chana      

Chana yesterday settled down by -1.33% at 4967 as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year. However downside seen limited due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. This time the heat started to rise from February itself and the high temperature is adversely affecting the growth of the gram crop. Average yield rates and quality of grains are likely to be affected in important producing areas. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4909.8 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.25% to settled at 54440 while prices down -67 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4922 and below same could see a test of 4877 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5041, a move above could see prices testing 5115.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4877-5115.

* Chana prices dropped as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available.

* There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season.

* Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased to a record 11.2 million hectares.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4909.8 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

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