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Highlights

Global:

IMF upgrades 2023 global growth outlook to 3% from 2.8% estimated in April.

Cooling inflation and the labour market in the US support bets of an end to Fed’s rate hike cycle.

US Nonfarm Payrolls rose 209K in June, the smallest increase in over 2 years.

US wage growth improved to 4.4% y-o-y in June from 4.3% prior.

Weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth and flatlining inflation in China raise calls for stimulus.

Domestic

Consumption signals mixed; rural consumption subdued. 

Kharif sowing marginally lower amid regional variations in rainfall.

Retail inflation rose to 4.8% in June snapping a four-month declining trend. 

Share of food inflation to overall inflation rose to 44% (June) from 36% a month ago.

CMIE investments completed and announced in Q1 FY24 were higher than a year ago period. 

Merchandise exports continued to disappoint; Services exports stayed upbeat. 

10-year bond yield rose on account of upside risks to inflation.

1-year OIS edged higher to 6.80% on bets of delayed RBI rate cuts.

Rupee appreciated amidst FPI inflows and waning dollar dominance.

We expect INR to remain within 81-83 range by end-FY24.

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