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Indian markets ended higher with decent gains on Friday as investors pinning hopes that the Federal Reserve will not follow through with more rate hikes. Today, start of the new week is likely to be cautious amid mixed cues from other global markets. Traders will be concerned with a private report warning that with the delayed monsoon, there is no scope for complacency on inflation even though official data for May has shown a cool-off. It expects the average Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for FY24 to come to 5.2 per cent against the 5.1 per cent estimate of the Reserve Bank of India. Also, there will be some cautiousness as the Reserve Bank of India said India’s forex reserves dropped by $1.318 billion to $593.749 billion for the week ended June 9. However, some respite may come as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued to invest in Indian equities for a fourth straight month as they injected Rs 16,405 crore in June so far on the country’s strong economic rebound and positive growth outlook. Besides, according to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) net purchased shares worth net Rs 794.78 crore on June 16. Traders may be taking encouragement as the Finance Ministry said net direct tax collection till June 17 this fiscal rose by 11.18 per cent to Rs 3.80 lakh crore on higher advance tax mop up. The Advance Tax collections for the April-June quarter of 2023-24 stood at Rs 1,16,776 crore as of June 17, reflecting a growth of 13.70 per cent over the same period last fiscal. Meanwhile, India made a strong pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade with Moody’s and also questioned the parameters based on which the US-based agency accords ratings, sources said on Friday. Ahead of its annual review of the sovereign rating, Moody’s Investors Service representatives met Indian government officials during which the officials highlighted the reforms and strong fundamentals of the Indian economy. Defense stocks will be in focus on anticipations that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to the U.S. this week would result in more cooperation across sectors, including defense and critical technologies. There will be some buzz in the primary market this week, as four IPOs hitting Dalal Street with one on the main board and three in the SME segment. 

The US markets ended lower on Friday as comments from two Federal Reserve officials curtailed optimism that the central bank is nearing the end of its aggressive interest rate hikes. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as investors looked ahead to China's loan prime rate decision.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended higher with gains of more than half percent on Friday, following gains in Financial Services, Banking and Capital Goods stocks. Benchmarks made an optimistic start and stayed in green for whole day as provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth Rs 3,085.51 crore on June 15. Some support came in as Moody's Investors Service said India's fast-growing gross domestic product (GDP) is going to be a key driver in bringing down the debt burden and debt affordability is going to be the key determinant of the country's credit profile and fiscal strength. Adding more comfort among traders, a private report stated that foreign portfolio investors from the US and Europe are optimistic on India, as reflected in their equity inflows that have recovered to $9.5 billion since March 2023. The buying momentum picked up in the late afternoon session, taking support from Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran’s statement that the average capital investment in many sectors is growing at more than 20 per cent, and there are multiple indicators pointing to a momentum in the economy. Also, he exuded confidence that the finance ministry's target of narrowing the fiscal deficit to 5.9 in the current financial year and to 4.5 percent in 2025-26 would be achieved. Some support also came with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stating that Indian companies are looking at business opportunities in Africa as the continent holds huge potential to boost trade and investments. Traders also got support after CBIC Chief Vivek Johri said that India and the US are working to 'quickly conclude' the mutual recognition agreement (MRA) for authorised economic operators of both countries to expedite customs clearances. The two countries in September 2021 entered into an MRA to recognise the AEOs of both countries. Besides, a strengthening rupee and firm trend in the global markets further bolstered sentiments. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 466.95 points or 0.74% to 63,384.58 and the CNX Nifty was up by 137.90 points or 0.74% to 18,826.00.

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