Add Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd For Target Rs.95 - Centrum Broking
Await recovery n iEXIM container cargo
Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited’s (GPPL) Q1FY23 recurring PAT grew by 70% YoY to Rs669m (estimate: Rs707m; consensus: Rs602m) on low base impacted by cyclone Tauktae. Reported PAT grew by 79% YoY to Rs575m and it includes exceptional expense of Rs125m pertaining to repair works for cyclone damages (PY PAT included repair works of Rs109m). Improvement in container cargo was mainly driven by addition of transhipment service from Maersk line and improved EXIM cargo. Average realisation and EBITDA margins remained constrained by adverse cargo mix (higher transhipment volumes). GPPL’s strong balance sheet and dividend yield of 7% on FY23E basis restricts downside but a meaningful recovery in EXIM container cargo is still awaited. Maintain ADD with price target of Rs95.
Earnings grow on a low base; higher transhipment cargo keeps margin in check
Revenue/EBITDA grew by 30%/29% YoY on a low base (impacted by cyclone led disruption in PY) to Rs2.1bn/Rs1.13bn in Q1FY23. Average realization grew by 1% YoY to Rs570/MT (estimate: Rs566/MT) influenced by ~6% tariff hike in earlier quarters but constrained by higher transhipment cargo. EBITDA margin declined 0.5%YoY (down 6% QoQ) to Rs310/MT (estimate: Rs325/MT) and remained impacted by adverse cargo mix. In % terms, EBITDA margin at 54.4% was down 70bp YoY
Cargo growth robust on low base; improved container volumes led by transhipment
Cargo grew by 29% YoY to 3.7mt in Q1FY23 on low base. Container volumes improved 14.4% QoQ to 187k TEUs led by addition of transhipment service from Maersk line (to continue till atleast Dec 22). Cargo improvement was also supported by lower skipped calls/higher EXIM cargo amid reduction in ocean freight rates from peak levels. Bulk cargo volumes were weak QoQ due to lower mineral cargo (ex coal) as Q4FY22 saw higher volume due to build up of inventory. Also Ultratech has been gradually taking some of the diverted cargo back to its capital jetty impacting bulk cargo volumes. Coal cargo saw strong growth. The upgraded liquid jetty (capable of handling VLGCs) will be ready by Sept 22 and will further boost liquid cargo volumes.
Proposing capex for container terminal upgradation; exploring warehousing space
GPPL has internally laid out capex plans for upgradation of container terminal. Also, the company is looking at opportunities in the warehousing space and plans are likely to get formalised in the near future. Consultant (A T Kearney) has given its recommendation to the GMB regarding the concession extension and the same is under evaluation.
Strong balance sheet and high dividend yield restrict downside; Maintain ADD
While GPPL’s container cargo improved QoQ amid lower skipped calls and higher EXIM cargo, major improvement was led by addition of transhipment service from Maersk line. We have upgraded our FY23E/24E earnings by 4.6%/2.5% YoY factoring in improved volumes in Q1FY23. GPPL’s strong balance sheet and dividend yield of 7% on FY23 basis restrict downside. However, a meaningful recovery in EXIM container cargo is still awaited. Stock trades at PE of 12.6x and 5.7x EBITDA on FY24E basis. Maintain ADD.
Valuations
While GPPL’s container cargo improved QoQ amid lower skipped calls and higher EXIM cargo, major improvement was led by addition of transhipment service from Maersk line. We have upgraded our FY23E/24E earnings by 4.6%/2.5% YoY factoring in improved volumes in Q1FY23. GPPL’s strong balance sheet and dividend yield of 7% on FY23 basis restrict downside. However, a meaningful recovery in EXIM container cargo is still awaited. Stock trades at PE of 12.6x and 5.7x EBITDA on FY24E basis. Maintain ADD.
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