Silver trading range for the day is 328645-378635 - Kedia Advisory
Daily comment as on Wednesday, 28 January 2026
Gold
Gold prices extended gains, settling higher by 1.07% at ?1,57,699, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating trade and geopolitical tensions. Fresh concerns emerged after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on autos, lumber and pharmaceuticals from South Korea, while increasing duties on other goods to 25%, reviving global trade uncertainty. Although interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, markets are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, especially amid mounting political pressure for rate cuts. Bullion has rallied nearly 17% so far this year, underpinned by robust central bank buying, sustained ETF inflows and investor rotation into real assets amid fiscal and currency concerns. On the demand side, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 24% month-on-month in December to 12.21 tonnes, though official-sector demand remained strong as the People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months. Global investment interest remains firm, with major banks turning increasingly bullish—Goldman Sachs, UBS, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank have all raised medium-term gold price forecasts. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 12.12% to 9,403 alongside a sharp price rise of ?1,662. Gold has immediate support at ?1,56,800; a break below could test ?1,55,905. Resistance is placed at ?1,59,205, and a decisive move above this level may open the door towards ?1,60,715.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 155905-160715.
* Gold climbed driven by strong haven demand amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions.
* President Trump threatened to raise tariffs from South Korea, with duties on other goods increasing from 15% to 25%.
* China's December net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by 24% from November
Silver
Silver prices surged sharply, settling higher by 6.45% at ?3,56,279, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical and trade risks. Market sentiment turned decisively bullish after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%, reviving global trade uncertainty. Investor confidence in sovereign bonds and currencies continued to erode, pushing funds into precious metals under the ongoing “debasement trade,” supported by heavy fiscal spending concerns in major economies. Expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve also added to volatility, with speculation that a more dovish Fed chair appointment could strengthen the outlook for easier monetary policy. Silver further benefited from a historic short squeeze, strong retail participation and tightening global supply conditions. China’s silver inventories have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, while large export shipments to London were required to ease supply stress. Despite record inflows into London vaults—silver holdings rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes—liquidity concerns persist. Major banks remain optimistic, with Commerzbank projecting silver at $95/oz by end-2026 and HSBC sharply upgrading its forecasts. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.65% to 10,323 alongside a steep price gain of ?21,580. Silver has support at ?3,42,460; a break below could test ?3,28,645. Resistance is seen at ?3,67,455, and a move above this level may open upside towards ?3,78,635.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 328645-378635.
* Silver surged as geopolitical and trade risks, along with investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.
* The rally in silver has also been fueled by a historic short squeeze and strong retail buying, as well as China's tightening export controls.
* US President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25%, citing delays by the ally’s legislature in approving a trade deal.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices edged higher, settling up by 1.33% at ?5,705, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Concerns intensified as U.S. naval forces built up near Iran, while Lebanese and Yemeni militias pledged support to Tehran, raising fears of potential supply disruptions across the region. Additional support came from temporary supply losses in the United States, where a severe winter storm is estimated to have curtailed nearly 15% of national oil output. However, gains were capped by the resumption of Kazakh crude exports, with the Tengiz field expected to restart and the CPC export terminal on the Black Sea returning to full-capacity operations. On the fundamentals front, markets remain cautious ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to keep output levels unchanged. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised higher its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd while trimming supply growth expectations, pointing to a slightly narrower surplus. The U.S. EIA also projected crude production to ease in 2026–27 after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, as open interest jumped 10.27% to 16,293 while prices gained ?75. Crude oil has support at ?5,549; a break below could test ?5,392. Resistance is seen at ?5,789, and a move above this level may push prices towards ?5,872.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5392-5872.
* Crude oil gains amid imminent war-threat in Middle East
* CPC said its export terminal on the Black Sea coast has returned to full-capacity operations.
* Losses were capped by supply disruptions in the US and elevated geopolitical risks.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices surged sharply, settling up by 7.33% at ?352.9, as an intense Arctic blast froze oil and gas wells and pipelines across the United States, pushing production to a two-year low. Freezing temperatures spanning large parts of the country lifted heating and power demand while straining electricity grids. The winter storm knocked out nearly 12% of U.S. natural gas output, with average Lower-48 production slipping to around 106.9 bcfd in January from a record 109.7 bcfd in December. Gas flows to U.S. LNG export facilities also fell to the lowest level in a year. PJM Interconnection declared a level-one emergency, mandating full readiness from power plants and allowing diversion of supply from industrial users to households and hospitals, underlining elevated supply risks. On the storage front, U.S. energy firms withdrew 120 bcf of gas for the week ended January 16, slightly above expectations. Inventories fell to 3.065 tcf, still 4.8% higher than last year and 6.1% above the five-year average, reflecting earlier mild weather. However, market focus has shifted to upcoming reports, with expectations of much larger withdrawals as severe cold boosts heating demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest jumping 21.3% to 14,952 as prices gained ?24.1. Natural gas has support at ?338.4; a break below could test ?324. Resistance is seen at ?360.8, and a move above may open the path towards ?368.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 324-368.8.
* Natural gas prices rose after an Arctic blast froze oil and gas wells and pipes, cutting gas production to a two-year low.
* Freezing temperatures continue to sweep across large parts of the US, lifting heating and power demand and straining electricity grids.
* Average output in the Lower 48 has fallen to around 106.9 bcfd so far in January from a record 109.7 bcfd in December.
Copper
Copper prices edged lower, settling down by 0.68% at ?1,307.5, as investors booked profits and adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. The downside, however, remained limited, supported by a weaker dollar amid persistent geopolitical, trade and monetary policy uncertainties. Structural demand themes also continue to lend support, with rising interest from retail investors and sustained industrial usage linked to renewable energy, electrification and artificial intelligence. Supply-side concerns added to the underlying tone after production at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in Chile was largely halted following the shutdown of its desalination plant due to a prolonged labor strike. On the inventory front, copper stockpiles rose sharply across major exchanges. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories climbed 5.8% to a record seasonal high, COMEX stocks crossed 500,000 tons for the first time, and LME inventories touched their highest level since May 2025, taking total global holdings above 900,000 tons. Meanwhile, mixed production trends were seen globally: Zambia’s output rose 8% year-on-year in 2025, while Peru, Codelco and BHP’s Escondida reported notable declines. The ICSG reported a widening refined copper surplus, reinforcing near-term supply comfort. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 34.34% to 17,249 as prices slipped ?9. Copper has support at ?1,300.1; a break could test ?1,292.7. Resistance is seen at ?1,319.9, and a move above may open the way towards ?1,332.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1292.7-1332.3.
* Copper dropped as investors booked profits and waited for the latest U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
* However downside seen limited due to weaker dollar amid geopolitical, trade, and monetary policy uncertainties.
* London Metals Exchange stockpiles reached their highest level since May 2025, pushing total global holdings above 900,000 tons.
Zinc
Zinc prices advanced sharply, settling up by 2.58% at ?324.4, supported by growing concerns over tight near-term supply. Refined zinc production is estimated to have fallen around 2% last year despite a 6.3% rise in mined output, reflecting continued output curbs among smelters, particularly in Kazakhstan and Japan, where the closure of the Toho Zinc Annaka plant has constrained capacity. Improving smelter economics were reflected in treatment charges, which rebounded toward $100 per tonne after plunging to negative $115 late last year. As a result, LME zinc stocks declined to about 110,000 tonnes, nearly half of the 230,500 tonnes seen at the start of last year, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories dropped 4.1% week-on-week. Further support came from expectations of tighter concentrate availability, with several Chinese mines entering routine maintenance. A southwest China mine is set to cut output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while a central China mine will also see reduced operating days. However, upside remained capped by lingering demand concerns linked to mixed Chinese macro data, despite December industrial output and Q4 GDP slightly beating expectations. ILZSG data showed the global zinc market deficit widened to 7,700 tonnes in November, although the refined market remained in surplus over the first 11 months of 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 10.25% to 4,357 as prices gained ?8.15. Zinc has support at ?319.5, with a break opening ?314.6, while resistance is seen at ?327.1; a move above could test ?329.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 314.6-329.8.
* Zinc prices rallied due to concerns of tight supply.
* Refined zinc production was on track to fall 2% last year, despite the 6.3% jump in mined output.
* Treatment charges for zinc rose toward $100 per ton after being negative $115 in the end of last year.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged higher, settling up by 0.2% at ?318.7, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and strength across the broader base metals complex. The dollar posted its steepest weekly decline since June as geopolitical tensions and abrupt policy signals unsettled investors, lending support to dollar-denominated commodities. Sentiment was further underpinned by expectations of tightening supply and steady global demand, alongside early signs of economic stabilization in China following policy support for key sectors. The People’s Bank of China reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary stance in 2026, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and support growth. On the supply side, global primary aluminium output rose marginally by 0.5% year-on-year in December to 6.296 million tonnes, according to the IAI. Despite this, the market remains structurally tight, with a global supply deficit of 108,700 tons recorded in October and a cumulative shortfall of 955,500 tons over the first ten months of the year, as consumption continued to outpace production. Inventory trends were mixed, with aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports rising 1.5% month-on-month to 316,800 tonnes, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased 6% week-on-week. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 8.46% to 4,267 as prices gained ?0.65. Aluminium finds support at ?316.2, below which ?313.6 may be tested. Resistance is seen at ?321.2, and a break above could push prices toward ?323.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 313.6-323.6.
* Aluminium rose as prices getting support from a weaker dollar, growth in other metals.
* PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 and will utilize tools such as RRR cuts to ensure sufficient liquidity.
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.0% from last Friday.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined by 2.19% to settle at 17,178, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favorable rainfall during the ongoing sowing season. For the 2026 harvest, India’s turmeric crop is shaping up with increased planted area, though overall supply growth is expected to remain moderate due to weather irregularities and localized disease incidence. Unseasonal heavy rains during August–September caused waterlogging and disease in nearly 15% of the crop area in parts of Marathwada, leading to yield losses of 15–20% in affected pockets across Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Despite the price correction, downside appears limited. Market arrivals remain below normal, and both farmers and stockists are reported to have significantly reduced inventories, providing a firm base ahead of new crop arrivals. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with dried output projected at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season. Lower carry-forward stocks are restricting the overall increase in availability. Demand remains strong, supported by robust exports to Europe and the U.S., while Indonesia’s season-ending crop quality has been reported below normal. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.89% alongside a ?384 price fall. Turmeric has immediate support at 16,940; a break below could test 16,700. Resistance is placed at 17,480, and a move above this level could push prices toward 17,780.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16700-17780.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.
* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16545.6 Rupees dropped by -1.8 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices slipped modestly on Wednesday, settling lower by 0.97% at ?24,020, pressured by comfortable near-term supplies and subdued export demand amid adequate existing stocks. Spot prices at Unjha, the key benchmark market, eased by 0.4% to ?23,768.15. However, downside remains limited as weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing are supporting sentiment. Gujarat is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, with jeera acreage down sharply by 16.31% at 3.98 lakh hectares compared to 4.76 lakh hectares last year. Low arrivals at Unjha and premium pricing for good-quality cumin are also lending support. Fundamentally, demand remains mixed. Export interest from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement but remains price-sensitive, while logistical and weather challenges across India and the Middle East are tightening supplies. The conclusion of the retail season and weak overseas buying have capped upside. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded, implying a large carry-forward stock. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced sowing. On the technical front, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 4.82% to 5,511 alongside a price drop of ?235. Jeera has support at ?23,660; a break below could test ?23,290. Resistance is seen at ?24,460, and a sustained move above may push prices towards ?24,890.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23290-24890.
* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23768.15 Rupees dropped by -0.4 percent.
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