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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.8% to settle at Rs.1,56,803 amid improved global risk sentiment that supported equities, reducing safe-haven demand. Market participants are closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, which could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Expectations remain tilted toward two rate cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, downside in gold was limited by a weaker U.S. dollar, following reports that China has advised its banks to trim U.S. Treasury exposure. Additionally, China’s central bank extended its gold buying spree for the 15th consecutive month in January, lifting reserves to 74.19 million fine troy ounces, with total gold reserves valued at $369.58 billion. Physical market trends were mixed. In India, premiums more than halved to $70 per ounce from last week’s $153 as volatility dampened demand. In contrast, Chinese premiums firmed to $35 per ounce ahead of the Lunar New Year. China’s 2025 gold output rose 3.35% to 552.02 tons, while consumption fell 3.57%, reflecting weaker jewellery demand but strong investment buying. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation with marginal decline in open interest. Gold finds immediate support at Rs.1,55,570; below this, Rs.1,54,335 could be tested. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,58,470, with a breakout potentially targeting Rs.1,60,135.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 154335-160135.

* Gold eased as improved risk appetite lifted global equities, while investors awaited a series of U.S. economic data.

* The downside was capped by a weaker dollar after reports emerged that China has advised its banks to reduce U.S. Treasury exposure.

* Traders expect two rate cuts by the Fed this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Silver 

Silver tumbled 3.84% to settle at Rs.2,52,548 as traders opted to book profits ahead of key U.S. economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Sentiment remained cautious after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett indicated that job growth may slow in the coming months due to a declining population trend. While markets are still factoring in at least two rate cuts later this year, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged in March. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also attributed the recent sharp volatility in metals to speculative activity from Chinese traders, calling the rally a potential blowoff phase. Investors are now awaiting delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data for clearer policy direction. On the supply side, tightening physical conditions are drawing attention. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes—near a decade low and sharply down from their 2021 peak of over 3,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, London vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, marginally lower on the month. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.33%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.2,47,175, with further downside toward Rs.2,41,810. Resistance stands at Rs.2,60,830, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.2,69,120.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 241810-269120.

* Silver fell as traders locked in profits with investors awaiting crucial US economic data that could shape Fed’s rate path.

*US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed the extreme swings in the metals market to Chinese traders.

*Silver inventories on the SHFE have plunged to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, underscoring growing tightness

Crude oil

Crude oil slipped 1.19% to settle at Rs.5,800 as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on prices. The U.S. and Iran described their recent talks in Oman as positive, with negotiations set to continue, reducing immediate supply concerns. Adding to the pressure, Saudi Arabia cut prices for its key crude grade sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, pointing to ample supply in the market. However, the smaller-than-expected price cut hinted that demand remains relatively stable. Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia signaled deeper cooperation across multiple sectors, reinforcing their strategic alignment in energy markets. On the positioning front, money managers increased their net long positions in U.S. crude by over 34,000 contracts to 63,010, reflecting improved sentiment. U.S. inventory data offered mixed signals: crude stocks fell sharply by 3.45 million barrels, with notable drawdowns at Cushing, while distillate inventories posted their steepest drop since 2021. However, gasoline stocks edged higher. The IEA slightly raised its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd, while the EIA expects U.S. crude output to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.35%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.5,769, with further downside toward Rs.5,738. Resistance stands at Rs.5,848, and a break above could push prices to Rs.5,896.

Trading Ideas

*Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5738-5896.

*Crude oil dropped as negotiations between the US and Iran are set to continue.

*U.S. oil production fell in November to the lowest since July, while oil demand fell to the lowest since April.

*The global oil market will be in deep surplus in the first quarter of 2026, the International Energy Agency said.

Natural gas

Natural gas edged up 0.42% to settle at Rs.288.7, supported by bargain buying and near-record LNG export flows that kept overall demand firm. Earlier in the winter, an Arctic blast led to massive storage withdrawals, but the weather outlook has now turned milder. Forecasts call for above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S., particularly in central and southern regions, which is expected to gradually spread east. This shift is likely to curb heating and power demand, potentially weighing on prices in the near term. On the supply side, production in the Lower 48 states has averaged 106.99 bcfd so far in February, slightly higher than January levels, though still below December’s record. Demand, including exports, is projected to fall from 142.5 bcfd this week to 130 bcfd next week. LNG exports remain strong at 18.3 bcfd, close to December’s peak. Meanwhile, storage data showed a record 360 bcf withdrawal for the week ended January 30, significantly above seasonal norms. Looking ahead, the EIA expects output to hit fresh records through 2027, while domestic consumption is projected to ease slightly. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying with rising open interest. Support is seen at Rs.280.7, with further downside at Rs.272.6. Resistance stands at Rs.294.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.299.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.6-299.8.

*Natural gas rose on low level buying supported by near-record LNG export flows that boosted demand.

* Colder weather earlier in the winter in the U.S. drove heavy withdrawals from underground storage, but forecasts now point to easing demand.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.99 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

Copper

Copper slipped 1.28% to settle at Rs.1,233.65, pressured by rising exchange inventories and subdued trading ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday. LME warehouse stocks climbed to 189,100 tons, the highest level since May, following fresh deliveries in Taiwan and the U.S. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also rose sharply to 248,911 tons, their highest since March, while Comex inventories remain at record highs with continued daily inflows. The build-up in stocks reflects comfortable near-term supply and softer buying interest. That said, there are supportive undercurrents. China has signaled plans to expand its strategic copper reserves and explore a state-backed commercial stockpiling system. Meanwhile, Chile’s Cochilco raised its 2026 price forecast to $4.95 per pound, citing resilient demand, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks, with prices expected to average $5.00 per pound in 2027. On the supply front, Chilean output is projected to rise this year, while Peru reported an 11.2% drop in November production. Globally, the refined copper market posted a 94,000-ton surplus in November, widening from October. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 1.88%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.1,226.6, with further downside toward Rs.1,219.4. Resistance is placed at RS.1,244.5; a breakout above this level could lead to a test of Rs.1,255.2.

Trading Ideas:

*Copper trading range for the day is 1219.4-1255.2.

*Copper fell amid rising inventories and muted trading activity ahead of the Lunar New Year break in China.

*Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses are at 189,100 tons, their highest since May.

*Inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose to 248,911 tons of copper, their highest since March.

Zinc

Zinc ended almost flat, slipping just 0.02% to settle at Rs.325.75, as weak demand continued to weigh on sentiment. Buying interest has cooled after Chinese downstream consumers completed their pre–Lunar New Year restocking, and inventories are expected to build seasonally during the Spring Festival. Broader concerns about China’s economic momentum, following a series of soft data releases, have also kept risk appetite in check. The People’s Bank of China acknowledged ongoing imbalances in supply and demand but pledged stronger financial support to boost domestic consumption and innovation, while keeping financing costs low. That said, downside appears limited. Supply disruptions are emerging as some zinc mines in Southwest and Central China have suspended operations for the holiday period, potentially reducing concentrate output by over 2,000 metric tons combined. Globally, the zinc market posted a modest deficit of 7,700 tons in November, although the broader January–November period still reflects a surplus. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc output hit a record 675,000 tons in December, with full-year production up nearly 6%, as smelters capitalized on stronger prices. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 3.95%. Immediate support lies at Rs.322.8, followed by Rs.319.8. Resistance is seen at Rs.327.4, with a move above potentially targeting Rs.329.

Trading Ideas:

*Zinc trading range for the day is 319.8-329.

* Zinc prices dropped as sluggish demand continued to test investors' risk appetite.

*Demand has eased after Chinese downstream buyers wrapped up pre–Lunar New Year restocking.

* China's central bank promises financial support to boost domestic demand

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped 0.42% to settle at Rs.311.5, weighed down by rising inventories, particularly in China where post–Lunar New Year social stocks are expected to reach their highest level in nearly three years. Shanghai exchange inventories jumped over 13% recently, while stocks at major Japanese ports also edged higher. This near-term inventory build has capped upside momentum. Still, losses were limited by tightening global supply and improving demand signals. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150 per ton, citing low global inventories, concerns over power availability for new Indonesian smelters, and firm demand growth. In China, refined aluminium output hit a record 3.87 million tons in December, taking full-year production above 45 million tons despite capacity caps. Manufacturing activity also showed signs of recovery, with PMI rising to 50.3, supported by stronger output and export orders. The PBOC has further eased policy, cutting its MLF rate and signaling more liquidity support in 2026. Globally, supply disruptions in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia have tightened availability, even as primary output rose modestly year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 5%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.310.5, followed by Rs.309.5. Resistance stands at Rs.312.6, with a move above potentially testing Rs.313.7

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 309.5-313.7.

* Aluminium dropped as inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and the peak social inventory.

* However downside seen limited as tightening global supply coincided with growing demand.

*Global primary aluminium output in December rose 0.5% year on year to 6.296 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices strengthened sharply, settling up 3.1% at Rs.16,114, supported by below-normal arrivals and firm domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remains positive as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their holdings, providing a solid base ahead of fresh crop arrivals. Supply concerns have also emerged after rains impacted yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, tightening near-term availability. However, the upside may be capped in the short term as arrivals in Erode are expected to rise sharply over the next 10–15 days. On the production side, India’s turmeric crop for the 2025–26 season is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate growth in output. Acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Unseasonal rains during August–September caused waterlogging and disease in parts of Marathwada, leading to yield losses in some pockets, though lower carry-forward stocks continue to limit overall supply growth. Demand fundamentals remain robust. Exports during April–November 2025 rose 4.88% year-on-year, with strong buying from Europe and the U.S. Lower-quality output in Indonesia has also supported Indian demand. Meanwhile, turmeric imports fell sharply over the same period, adding to domestic tightness. Spot prices in Nizamabad closed slightly lower, reflecting cautious near-term trade. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.94% to 17,105 as prices gained Rs.484. Immediate support lies at ?15,646, below which prices could test Rs.15,180. Resistance is seen at Rs.16,414, and a break above may open the path toward Rs.16,716.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15180-16716.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* However, upside seen limited as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15968.75 Rupees dropped by -0.54 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices ended almost flat, settling up 0.02% at Rs.23,525, as early profit booking capped gains after the start of new-crop arrivals in select markets. Arrivals are expected to gather pace from March, which, along with comfortable existing stocks and muted export interest, has kept prices under check. However, the downside remains limited due to weather-related challenges and delayed sowing, particularly in Gujarat, where fields were not ready on time. Jeera sowing in the state has fallen to 4.08 lakh hectares, down 14.34% year-on-year, tightening supply expectations. At Unjha, arrivals remain low and good-quality cumin continues to command premium prices. Fundamentals present a mixed picture. Export demand from the Gulf and China has shown some improvement but remains highly price-sensitive. Logistical and weather issues across India and the Middle East are restricting supply, lending support to prices. At the same time, the end of the retail season and cautious overseas buying are limiting upside. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced sowing. Carry-forward stocks are projected at around 16 lakh bags, which may temper any sharp rally. Exports during April–November 2025 declined 10.3% year-on-year, despite a pickup seen in November. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 1.82% to 5,178 while prices rose by Rs.5. Jeera has support at Rs.23,310, with a break below opening the way to Rs.23,100. Resistance is seen at Rs.23,710, and a move above could test Rs.23,900.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23100-23900.

* Jeera settled flat due to profit booking as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

*However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

*In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23380.4 Rupees gained by 0.24 percent.