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Bullion –

Spot gold and silver surged to fresh record highs on Monday, with gold climbing to $4,630/ Oz and silver to $86.2, up about 2% and 6.5% respectively driven by strong safe-haven inflows amid rising concerns over the Fed’s independence and escalating geopolitical tensions. Fed Chair Powell disclosed that he faced threats of criminal charges related to his Senate testimony, intensifying market unease over political pressure on monetary policy. Moreover, Iran’s parliament speaker warned the US and Israel against intervention following deadly domestic unrest. Investors are also monitoring the gold–silver ratio, now nearing its long-term average of 50–53. Today, Gold steadied near $4,595 on sustained safe-haven demand, with markets focused on upcoming US CPI, ADP jobs, housing data, and Fed remarks, while expectations remain unchanged for Jan 2025 meeting and two cuts later this year.

Crude Oil –

WTI crude oil extended gains for a third consecutive session on Monday, rising to $59.91/bbl, supported by elevated geopolitical risks. Tensions increased after Trump warned of a “hard” response if Iranian authorities kill anti-government protesters, while Iran signaled it could act preemptively if it detected clear threats, mounting concerns over potential supply disruptions from OPEC’s 4th-largest producer. Additional support came from ongoing Russia-Ukraine strikes and annual commodity index rebalancing. Oil prices edged slightly higher today to a onemonth high of $59.99/bbl after Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran, effective immediately, though details on the scope and implementation remain unclear. However, expectations that Venezuela may soon resume oil exports could limit further upside.

Natural Gas –

NYMEX natural gas futures surged 8% on Monday to settle above $3.40/mmBtu, driven by a shift toward colder mid- to late-January weather forecasts and a rebound in LNG export flows.

Base metals –

Base metals finished on a strong note, with the metals rising over 1% and copper closing above $13,200/ton despite some late-session profit-taking. Prices had earlier surged to fresh highs on a weaker dollar and growing concerns that potential U.S. tariffs could divert more metal into American warehouses, tightening supply elsewhere. The rally has also been underpinned by ongoing mine disruptions and structurally strong demand from electrification, renewable energy, and data-center expansion. However, index rebalancing flows and elevated volatility trimmed gains across the complex. With inventories increasingly concentrated in the U.S. and supply growth struggling to keep pace with demand, the market continues to show signs of tightness, even as near-term price swings remain elevated.

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