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Gold

Gold yesterday settled lower by 2.02% at 1,20,957 as optimism over progress in the US-China trade talks reduced safe-haven demand. After extensive discussions in Malaysia, both nations reached a preliminary agreement covering export controls, agricultural trade, and fentanyl regulation, with Presidents Trump and Xi expected to formalize the deal later this week. The easing geopolitical tensions prompted investors to shift towards riskier assets, weighing on bullion prices. Meanwhile, markets are closely watching key central bank meetings, with the US Federal Reserve widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep policy rates unchanged. The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 27th day, continues to add uncertainty, though its direct impact on gold has been limited by improving risk sentiment. On the macro front, lower inflation data and rising rate-cut expectations have reinforced the view that monetary easing will continue, potentially supporting gold in the medium term. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96.7% probability of a rate cut this week and 95.8% odds of another in December. In India, physical demand remained subdued ahead of Diwali as buyers awaited deeper price corrections, though festive buying lent some support. Swiss gold exports to China surged 254% in August, while shipments to India also rose. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 5.38% to 13,007. Support is seen at 1,19,740 and 1,18,515, while resistance lies at 1,22,540 and 1,24,115.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 118515-124115.

* Gold weakens as improved risk appetite dents safe-haven demand.

* US-China trade breakthrough boosts sentiment ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at APEC.

* The Fed is widely expected to deliver a second consecutive interest rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled lower by 2.78% at 1,43,367 as progress in US-China trade negotiations weakened demand for safe-haven metals. Optimism ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting, following constructive talks between trade representatives, reduced investor appetite for precious metals. The announcement that the US has dropped its 100% tariff threat and China has paused its rare earth export expansion further bolstered market sentiment, pressuring silver prices. Additionally, expectations of a 25bps rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, following softer inflation data, influenced price movement as investors rebalanced portfolios ahead of the policy decision. In London, silver market liquidity improved after large inflows from the US and China, easing the recent physical shortage that had driven spot prices to a premium over COMEX futures. According to the LBMA, London vaults held 24,581 tonnes of silver worth $36.5 billion at the end of September. On the investment front, global silver ETP holdings surged to 1.13 billion ounces in H1 2025, just 7% below the record peak of February 2021, supported by rising investor interest and stronger prices. Indian retail investment demand rose 7% year-on-year, reflecting positive price expectations. The Silver Institute projected the 2025 global deficit to narrow 21% to 117.6 million ounces as supply slightly outpaces demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling with open interest up 0.29% to 20,370. Support is placed at 1,40,610 and 1,37,855, while resistance is seen at 1,46,800 and 1,50,235.

Trading Ideas:

# Silver trading range for the day is 137855-150235.

# Silver prices fall as US-China trade optimism weakens safe-haven demand.

# Trump-Xi meeting expected to finalize progress made in weekend talks.

# Fed is widely expected to deliver a rate cut this week following softer-than-expected inflation data on Friday.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled slightly higher by 0.20% at 5,438 amid renewed optimism over a potential trade agreement framework between the U.S. and China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that both sides had outlined a “substantial framework” to avoid the imposition of 100% U.S. tariffs and secure China’s deferment of rare-earth export controls. This development bolstered global sentiment, lending mild support to oil prices. Meanwhile, Iraq indicated ongoing negotiations regarding its production quota within its 5.5 million barrels per day capacity, as OPEC+ continues adjusting output levels to regain market share. On the supply front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2025 global oil supply forecast following OPEC+ output increases but trimmed demand growth projections due to a weaker economic outlook. The IEA expects global oil demand to rise by around 700,000 barrels per day both this year and next. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 0.27 and 4.5 million barrels, respectively, reflecting mixed fundamentals. Refinery runs dropped by 1.2 million barrels per day, with utilization falling to 85.7%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 0.26% to 14,132 while prices edged higher by 11. Crude oil finds support at 5,374 and 5,311, while resistance is expected near 5,494 and 5,551. A breakout above these levels could indicate further bullish momentum ahead.

Trading Ideas:

# Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5311-5551.

# Crude oil gained amid optimism over a trade deal framework between the U.S. and China.

# Support for prices came from continued concerns over Russian supply, after the US imposed new sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil.

# IEA noted that the oil market is expected to remain in surplus, with production from the so-called “American quintet”, outpacing demand growth.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday surged by 7.62% to settle at 303.7, driven by forecasts of colder weather and expectations of higher demand over the next two weeks, coupled with strong LNG export activity. Flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export plants averaged 16.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, surpassing both September’s 15.7 bcfd and the previous record of 16.0 bcfd set in April. Daily LNG feedgas hit a new all-time high of 17.4 bcfd, largely supported by record flows to Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant in Louisiana at 3.9 bcfd. Production has remained steady near 108 bcfd, though October’s average has slightly dipped to 107 bcfd from 107.5 bcfd in September. Despite this, earlier record output helped boost storage, now about 4.5% above the five-year average and 0.9% higher than a year ago, reflecting comfortable supply levels. The latest EIA data showed an injection of 87 bcf into storage for the week ended October 17—exceeding both expectations and historical norms. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record natural gas output and demand in 2025, with dry gas production seen rising to 107.1 bcfd and consumption to 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are expected to hit 14.7 bcfd next year, up from 11.9 bcfd in 2024. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 44.36% to 5,265 while prices jumped 21.5. Support is at 290 and 276.3, with resistance at 311.7 and 319.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 276.3-319.7.

* Natural gas climbed driven by forecasts for colder weather and higher demand, alongside strong LNG export activity.

* Flows to the eight major US LNG export plants have averaged 16.6 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September.

* Daily LNG feedgas hit an all-time high of 17.4 bcfd, with flows to Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant in Louisiana reaching a record 3.9 bcfd.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled higher by 0.79% at 1002.45 amid optimism that the U.S. and China are nearing a trade deal to ease global economic tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Trump’s 100% tariff threat has been withdrawn, while China has paused plans to expand rare earth export controls for a year. The news boosted sentiment across base metals. Copper, already up nearly 25% this year, also found support from supply concerns due to mine disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo. Meanwhile, BHP Group projected global copper demand to surge by 70% by 2050, driven by the green energy transition. On the supply side, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 4.9% week-on-week, while China’s copper output dipped 2.7% month-on-month in September. Indonesia is considering allowing Amman Mineral International to resume concentrate exports, providing partial relief to tight global supplies. However, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a global refined copper surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, shifting to a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026, as demand continues to expand faster than mine growth. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 37.69% to 1,850 while prices gained 7.85. Copper is receiving support at 996.7, and a break below could test 990.7. Resistance is now seen at 1007.3, and a move above this may open the path for a test of 1011.9 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 990.7-1011.9.

* Copper prices rose as the US and China are close to finalizing a major trade deal to ease global economic tensions.

* Trump's 100% tariff threat is off the table, and China will pause plans to expand rare earth export controls for a year.

* Prices have been supported by mine disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia and Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled higher by 1.17% at 303.15 as easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and improved global growth sentiment lifted buying interest. Reports that both countries have outlined the framework for a trade deal expected to be finalized later this week boosted market optimism, with expectations that it could pause U.S. tariffs and China’s rare earth export curbs. Adding further support, China’s industrial profits rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years in September, signaling stronger industrial activity and potential demand recovery. Supply-side fundamentals also lent strength to prices. Zinc stocks in LME-approved warehouses fell to 37,050 tonnes, the lowest since March 2023 and down over 80% since mid-April. The tightness pushed the cash-to-three-month premium to around $250 per tonne after hitting a record $338.74 recently. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), global refined zinc production has declined over 2% this year despite a 6.3% increase in mined output, due to smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan. Meanwhile, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped 0.4% week-on-week, indicating steady Chinese demand. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 30.72% to 1,141 while prices gained 3.5. Zinc is finding support at 301.1, and a break below this level could test 299.1. Resistance is seen at 304.3, and a move above could push prices toward 305.5 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.1-305.5.

* Zinc gained as signs of easing trade tensions between the China and the U.S. and hopes for stronger growth

* LME zinc stocks warehouses at 37,050 tons, the lowest since March 2023 and down more than 80% since the middle of April.

* Worries about supplies on the LME market pushed the premium for the cash zinc contract over the three-month forward to a record high $338.74 a ton.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 266.55, tracking gains in LME prices which climbed above $2,870 per tonne in October — the highest in over three years — amid persistent supply tightness and firm long-term demand prospects. Supply concerns deepened after China reiterated its strict aluminium output cap of 45 million tonnes per year to curb overcapacity, a target that could be breached later this year. Additionally, production setbacks at major refineries, including the suspension of one potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and Alcoa’s decision to close its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, further tightened the market. Despite a 0.9% year-on-year increase in global primary aluminium output to 6.08 million tonnes in September, the supply outlook remains constrained. Aluminium stocks at Japan’s ports rose modestly by 1.8% to 341,300 tonnes, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 3.2%, reflecting steady demand. China’s unwrought aluminium exports declined to 521,000 tonnes in September, while imports surged 35.4% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes, showing strong domestic appetite. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its long-term price forecast downward to $2,350/t for Q4 2026, expecting a mild surplus as cost deflation and slower demand emerge later. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 19.84% to 1,224 while prices gained 1.05. Aluminium finds support at 265.1, with a break below likely testing 263.5, whereas resistance is seen at 268.8, and a move above could push prices towards 270.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 263.5-270.9.

* Aluminium gained tracking LME prices rose past $2,870, the highest in over three years amid tight supply.

* Troubles for key refineries also pressured supply, with one of two potlines in Iceland's Grundartangi smelter being suspended.

* Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 0.62% at 14,530 amid increased acreage supported by favourable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka were affected by excess rainfall. Erode reported a steady inflow of turmeric from these states, but continuous rains there have led to disease outbreaks and storage challenges due to high humidity. In Nanded, heavy rainfall damaged nearly 15% of the standing crop, while turmeric stocks in Warangal are almost exhausted, with limited new arrivals keeping market sentiment firm. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% to 3.30 lakh hectares in 2024–25, up from around 3 lakh hectares last year, as other crops offer lower profitability. Market activity remains active in Duggirala, where new crop arrivals are fetching a premium over older stock, supported by steady buyer interest and robust daily trading of 1,000–1,200 bags. Meanwhile, the Himachal Pradesh government has initiated turmeric procurement to promote natural farming, with farmer registration open from May 15 to June 15, 2025. On the export front, shipments during April–August 2025 rose 3.31% year-on-year to 80,156 tonnes, while August exports increased 7.27% from last year and 13.71% month-on-month. In Nizamabad, spot prices gained 0.69% to 14,370. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 4% to 12,095. Support is seen at 14,098 and 13,668, while resistance is likely at 14,904 and 15,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13668-15280.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled higher by 3.46% at 20,190 on value buying amid lower arrivals, as Diwali holidays in several markets restricted inflows. However, the upside remained capped due to sluggish export demand post the retail season. Support came after the GST Council reduced the GST rate to 5%, expected to boost FMCG exports and domestic consumption. Despite this, market sentiment stayed cautious as comfortable supplies and weak overseas interest continued to weigh on prices. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season-end, leaving an estimated carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly below last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing area. Gujarat’s output is projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production in China is pegged at 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are estimated to produce around 9,000–12,000 tonnes each. Despite reduced global supply, India’s exports during April–August 2025 declined by 17.02% to 85,977 tonnes from 1.03 lakh tonnes last year, reflecting muted foreign buying. In Unjha, a key spot market, prices fell 0.68% to 18,796. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.74% to 3,153. Support is seen at 19,790 and 19,380, while resistance is likely at 20,450 and 20,700 on the higher side.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19380-20700.

* Jeera prices gained on level buying amid low arrivals.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* The farmers still have about 20 lakh bags of cumin.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18796.35 Rupees dropped by -0.68 percent.

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