Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5600-5804 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold surged 2% to settle at 155,895, supported by softer Treasury yields and growing debate over the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. Yields hovered near two-month lows after U.S. existing home sales fell to their weakest level in over two years. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran cautioned that policy may already be tighter than necessary and warned of risks to growth, reiterating his call for further rate cuts while downplaying inflation threats. Adding to the bullish tone, ANZ raised its second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 per ounce, describing bullion as a hedge against mounting uncertainties. Physical markets showed mixed trends. In India, gold traded at discounts of up to $12 per ounce as volatile prices dampened buying and traders anticipated concessional imports from the UAE. In contrast, demand in China remained firm ahead of the Lunar New Year. According to the China Gold Association, China’s total gold output rose 3.35% in 2025, while ETF holdings and central bank reserves increased sharply, even as overall consumption declined. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.49%. Support is seen at 153,970, with a break below targeting 152,040. Resistance stands at 157,015, and a move above could extend gains toward 158,130.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 152040-158130.
* Gold prices ended up on dwindling hopes for Fed rate cuts.
* The current policy stance risks slowing U.S. growth, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said.
* China's gold market saw robust demand heading into the Lunar New Year holiday, while in India, gold flipped to a discount.
Silver
Silver rallied sharply, gaining 3.35% to settle at 244,360, as U.S. Treasury yields slid to their lowest level since early December. The move followed a softer-than-expected inflation report, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates later this year. U.S. annual inflation eased to 2.4% in January 2026, below forecasts, while core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Although strong jobs data earlier in the week reduced the chances of an immediate rate cut, markets still anticipate around two 25-basis-point reductions by year-end. Fed officials remain cautious. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan signaled that meaningful labor market weakness would be required before further easing, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested rates could stay elevated for some time. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments also lent support after President Donald Trump indicated progress in talks with Iran. On the physical side, supply tightness is becoming more visible. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to their lowest level since 2015, dropping to around 318 tonnes—down more than 88% from their 2021 peak. London vault holdings also edged lower in January. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 6.71%. Support is placed at 239,255, with further downside toward 234,155. Resistance stands at 249,120, and a break above could target 253,885.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 234155-253885.
* Silver rose as US 10-year yields hit early-Dec lows after soft CPI boosted Fed cut bets.
* President Trump said negotiations with Iran could conclude within a month as he seeks a diplomatic deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear program.
* Data showed the United States added 130,000 jobs in January, compared to analysts' estimates of 70,000.
Crude oil
Crude oil edged higher by 0.65% to settle at 5,723, supported by softer U.S. inflation data that eased macro concerns and helped offset worries about rising supply. Sentiment remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions, particularly around U.S.-Iran relations, which could disrupt flows. At the same time, OPEC+ is reportedly considering resuming production increases from April, with key members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE looking to reclaim market share as summer demand approaches. The demand outlook remains mixed. In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency trimmed its global demand growth outlook but later revised 2026 growth slightly higher to 930,000 bpd, pointing to a narrower surplus. OPEC, meanwhile, expects India’s oil demand to rise steadily to 5.9 mbpd this year, though domestic production is seen flat at around 0.8 mbpd. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported a sharp 8.5 million-barrel build in crude inventories, alongside higher gasoline stocks, while distillates declined. Production is expected to ease slightly after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 32.23%. Support lies at 5,662, with further downside toward 5,600. Resistance is seen at 5,764, and a break above could push prices toward 5,804.
Trading Ideas
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5600-5804.
* Crude oil gains after data showed an overall slowdown in U.S. inflation, helping offset supply concerns
* OPEC estimates India’s crude oil demand to rise steadily while output stays flat.
* IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 850,000 bpd, though this is still higher than last year’s growth of 770,000 bpd.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices were largely unchanged, slipping just 0.03% to settle at 294.1, as forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks weighed on demand expectations. After a period of extreme cold, meteorologists now expect temperatures across most of the U.S. to trend warmer through February 25, though the Northeast may stay below normal for a few more days. Supply remains robust. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 107.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, and not far from December’s record high. According to the Energy Information Administration, producers withdrew 249 bcf from storage in the week ended February 6, following a record 360 bcf draw the week prior during an Arctic blast. Total inventories now stand at 2.214 trillion cubic feet, about 4.2% below last year and 5.5% under the five-year average. Demand, including exports, is expected to fall sharply from 141.1 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. gas production will climb to a record 110 bcfd in 2026, while consumption holds near current highs. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 15.33%. Support is seen at 285.2, with further downside toward 276.2. Resistance stands at 300.6, and a break above could test 307.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 276.2-307.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* US energy firms withdrew 249 bcf of natural gas from storage as extreme cold continued to drive strong heating demand.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.
Copper
Copper edged up 0.27% to settle at 1,209.5, supported by optimism around global manufacturing, the green energy transition, and AI-led demand growth. Ongoing supply constraints at major mines also lent support. However, gains were capped by a broader risk-off mood in global markets and soft physical demand in China ahead of the February 15 holiday. Spot premiums in China slipped to a 60 yuan per ton discount, while the Yangshan import premium held at a relatively subdued $34 per ton, reflecting cautious buying interest. SHFE warehouse inventories rose 9.5% week-on-week, adding to near-term pressure. On the supply side, Chilean output remained weak. Production at Collahuasi fell 12.1% year-on-year in December, while Escondida dropped 16.5%. Peru also reported an 11.2% annual decline in November output. Despite this, the International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-ton surplus in November, with the market remaining in surplus for the year to date. China’s refined production continues to expand, with December output up 9.1% year-on-year, even as unwrought imports for 2025 fell 6.4%. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 1.55%. Support is placed at 1,185.8, with a break below targeting 1,162. Resistance stands at 1,229.4, and a move above could extend gains toward 1,249.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1162-1249.2.
* Copper gains as investors bet on rising demand from global manufacturing while constrained mine output supports prices.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 9.5 % from last Friday, the exchange said.
* Physical demand is falling in China ahead of the nine-day break to start on February 15.
Zinc
Zinc inched up 0.08% to settle at 323.6, supported by lingering concerns over tight concentrate supply. However, gains were limited as broader market sentiment weakened ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, with Chinese participants stepping to the sidelines. Adding pressure, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumped 23.1% week-on-week, signaling softer near-term demand. Supply dynamics remain mixed. While mined output rose 6.3% last year, refined production fell about 2% due to smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of the Annaka plant. Seasonal mine suspensions in Southwest and Central China are expected to trim concentrate availability by over 2,000 tonnes in the near term. Meanwhile, Boliden’s Tara mine in Ireland has resumed operations, and Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project continues ramping up, pointing to improving global supply. China’s refined zinc output reached a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, bringing full-year production to 7.41 million tonnes, nearly 6% higher than last year. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global market showed a modest 7,700-tonne deficit in November, though it remains in surplus for the year overall. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 34.23%. Support lies at 320.5, with a break below targeting 317.5. Resistance is seen at 325.6, and a move above could test 327.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 317.5-327.7.
* Zinc recovered all losses amid persistent concerns of tight supply.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 23.1% from last Friday, the exchange said.
* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year.
Aluminium
Aluminium rose 0.5% to settle at 309.25, supported by tightening supply conditions, particularly news that South32 will place its Mozambique smelter on care and maintenance next month after drought-related power shortages. The looming shutdown reinforced concerns over constrained global output. However, gains were capped by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump may scale back some steel and aluminium tariffs, a move that could ease supply flows into the U.S. and prompt additional metal to be released from LME warehouses. In China, smelters are operating close to the government’s capacity ceiling, while steep U.S. tariffs have already disrupted trade flows. Still, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed 21.3% last week, pointing to near-term supply pressure. On the demand side, optimism persists. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half aluminium price forecast to $3,150 per ton, citing low global inventories and power constraints in Indonesia. China’s December aluminium output reached a record 3.87 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year, while manufacturing activity improved, with PMI rising to 50.3. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary output edged up 0.5% in December. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 15.09%. Support lies at 305.2, with further downside toward 301. Resistance is seen at 312.4, and a move above could test 315.4
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 301-315.4.
* Aluminium gains as Australia’s South 32 confirmed that it would wind down a smelter in Mozambique.
* However, upside seen limited after a report the U.S. may trim some tariffs and other industrial metals.
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 21.3% from last Friday.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices slipped 2.15% to settle at 15,026, pressured by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next two weeks. Improved sowing conditions and higher acreage also weighed on sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric area is estimated at around 3.02 lakh hectares, up roughly 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried production is seen at about 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. That said, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both farmers and stockists are holding relatively low inventories, which should cushion the impact of new crop supplies. Weather disruptions, including heavy rains and disease pressure in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, have trimmed yields in some pockets. Export demand remains firm, with shipments during April–November 2025 rising 4.88% year-on-year to 127,530 tonnes, while imports fell sharply by 44.5%. In Nizamabad, prices eased 1.37% to Rs.15,555.35. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.87% as prices fell Rs.330. Immediate support is seen at 14,832, with a break potentially testing 14,636. On the upside, resistance stands at 15,362, and a sustained move higher could target 15,696.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14636-15696.
* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.
* However, downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15555.35 Rupees dropped by -1.37 percent.
Jeera
Jeera slipped 0.48% to settle at 22,845 as fresh crop arrivals began trickling into select mandis, with supplies expected to gather momentum from March. Comfortable old stocks and subdued export buying also weighed on prices. Still, the downside remains cushioned. Delayed sowing and weather-related challenges, particularly in Gujarat, have kept supply concerns alive. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, one of the slowest seasons in recent years. At Unjha, arrivals remain thin and premium-quality cumin continues to command better rates, even though overall spot prices eased marginally to Rs.22,924.80. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with nearly 16 lakh bags likely to be carried forward. Production this season is pegged lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced acreage. Globally, output concerns in Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and lower-than-expected production in China are supportive, but export demand from India remains price-sensitive. April–November exports declined 10.3% year-on-year, despite a pickup in November shipments. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.32% and prices falling Rs.110. Immediate support is seen at 22,660, with further weakness toward 22,470. Resistance stands at 23,110, and a breakout could test 23,370.
Trading Ideas
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22470-23370.
* Jeera settled down as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22924.8 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.
