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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 60180 after Fed officials flagged the need for another interest rate hike. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested the Fed could hike by another 25 basis points (bp) next month. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in an 86% chance of a 25 bp hike in May. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) fell by the most in nearly three years last month, coming a day after inflation data pointed to moderation in consumer prices. Commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) officials including President Christine Lagarde will be on investors' radar this week, along with speeches by New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. A rally in prices made physical gold buying unattractive across major Asian hubs, dampening sentiment ahead of a key gold-buying festival in India. In top buyer China, bullion changed hands at premiums of $1-$5 an ounce on spot prices, down from the $26-$40 premiums charged last month. In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $22 an ounce over official domestic prices, versus the $32 discounts last week. India’s gold imports, which have a bearing on the current account deficit, fell about 30 percent to USD 31.8 billion during April-February 2023. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.57% to settle at 17558 while prices are down -149 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59825 and below same could see a test of 59471 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60579, a move above could see prices testing 60979.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59877-60955.
* Gold prices climbed buoyed by a weaker dollar
* Investors looked for more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike path.
* China’s jewellery, precious metals sales up 37.4% y-o-y in March

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 74812 as the dollar index rose toward 102 as the American economy’s resilience and strong earnings from major US banks bolstered market expectations for another interest rate hike in May. US retail sales fell more than expected in March, but core retail sales remained solid. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment unexpectedly increased in April and inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to a five-month high of 4.6%. CME Group's Fedwatch tool indicates the Fed will raise the federal fund rate by 25 basis points in May, with rate cuts seen in the back half of the year to boost consumer spending and growth. It appears the European Central Bank is also moving towards a smaller 25-bps rate hike in May. Traders also digested a slew of other U.S. economic data, including a report from the Commerce Department showing retail sales fell by much more than expected in the month of March. The Commerce Department said retail sales slumped by 1% in March after dipping by a revised 0.2% in February. A separate report from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. industrial production increased by more than expected in March, although the increase was largely due to a spike in utilities output. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.32% to settle at 11847 while prices are down -865 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74042 and below same could see a test of 73273 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75940, a move above could see prices testing 77069.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74122-76170.
* Silver gains amidst weak dollar triggered by hawkish comments from Fed officials
* US housing starts went down 0.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.42 million in March of 2023
* US building permits tumbled 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million in March 2023

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.99% at 6632 as investors mulled over a possible May interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could dampen economic recovery hopes, though Chinese GDP data was expected to augur well for demand growth. The IEA also warned in its monthly report that output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers risked exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of this year and could hurt consumers and a global economic recovery. Further tightening supplies, oil exports from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain at a standstill almost three weeks after an arbitration case ruled Ankara owed Baghdad compensation for unauthorised exports. Russia's oil production is forecast to remain stable until 2025, its Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said, while Moscow plans reserves in order to make its supplies more resilient. Russia has decided to cut its crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) until the end of the year in order to prop up the price of oil, a key contributor to its budget revenues. Russian oil production has proved resilient in the face of Western sanctions, defying forecasts of a steep decline. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -28.3% to settle at 3938 while prices are down -135 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6574 and below same could see a test of 6515 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6731, a move above could see prices testing 6829.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6529-6781.
* Crude oil gains as China’s economy grew, boosting the demand outlook.
* US Strategic petroleum reserve dived sharply to the lowest level in nearly four decades last week.
* Russia forecasts stable oil output to 2025, to set up stockpiles

natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 8.85% at 188.2 helped by forecasts for colder weather than previously expected. The latest data showed US utilities put a near-normal 25 bcf of gas into storage last week, compared with a five-year average rise of 28 bcf. US natural gas prices are more than 40% lower this year, pressured by below-average demand and ample inventories. As a result of the mild winter and persistently low natural gas demand in both residential and commercial sectors, the EIA expects over 2% less natural gas consumption in 2023 than in 2022. At the same time, according to the latest data from NOAA, the US has experienced 8% fewer heating degree days than usual. Hence, natural gas inventories have risen, and the EIA projects them to remain above average through the summer. Meanwhile, US natural gas exports will likely average around 12 Bcf/d in 2023, up 14% from last year. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had risen to 100.1 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal from April 17-25 before turning near normal from April 26-May 2. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.15% to settle at 31269 while prices are up 15.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 180 and below same could see a test of 171.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 193.2, a move above could see prices testing 198.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 179.3-203.7.
* Natural gas edged up on a preliminary daily output decline and forecasts for more cool weather
* Prices also gained support as the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants remained on track to hit a record
* Natural gas inventories have risen, and the EIA projects them to remain above average through the summer.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 780.5 after dollar rose as Fed policymaker warned that the Fed needs to continue raising interest rates to reduce inflation. However, upside seen amid hopes of strong demand, and persistent concerns over low supply. Softer-than-anticipated inflation in China raised hopes that Beijing will increase stimulus to support growth and infrastructure activity, adding to bullish data after the credit rise beat expectations in March. In the meantime, data from the London Metal Exchange showed inventories fell to 56,000 tonnes, the smallest amount since 2005. The development tracked stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which lost over one-third since their peak in February. To add, Chile’s state-owned Codelco said the output in 2023 is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022. Depleting stocks worldwide drove Trafigura to forecast copper prices at a record high this year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs projected a global shortage of visible copper inventories by September. On the fundamentals, as of April 14, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese markets decreased 4,600 mt from last Monday to 190,100 mt, down 12,200 mt from two Fridays ago. Due to the expansion of import losses, the inflows of imported copper decreased last week, helping digest warehouse inventories. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.93% to settle at 3302 while prices are down -8.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 773.9 and below same could see a test of 767.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 792.4, a move above could see prices testing 804.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 774.4-787.
* Copper seen supported amid falling inventories in LME warehouses.
* Top copper miners contributed to the surge in Peru's copper production in February
* The US economic data cooled down, and the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates in May.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 251.25 after zinc ingot social inventory across seven major Chinese markets rose to 150,000 mt last week. China's March CPI recorded 0.7%, lower than expectations, and March PPI fell 2.5% year-on-year as anticipated, suggesting that the recovery of Chinese consumption was relatively mild. However, the operating rates of downstream companies stood low on poor demand. In the meantime, overseas demand was less likely to improve. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March as expected. The alloy output registered 82,610 mt, up 16,900 mt on the month. The output totalled 1.57 million mt from January to March, up 6.62% year-on-year. The production cuts in Yunnan caused by power rationing contributed to most of the decline in output. Meanwhile, the Henan Jinli Zinc Smelter successfully reached full capacity in March, bringing additional growth. Yi Gang, Governor of the People's Bank of China said at the meeting that China's economy is stabilising and recovering, inflation remains low, and the real estate market has undergone positive changes. He expected that the GDP growth rate will reach about 5% this year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.95% to settle at 2926 while prices are down -0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 249.6 and below same could see a test of 247.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 253.6, a move above could see prices testing 255.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 249.6-256.4.
* Zinc gains after data revealed faster than expected economic growth in China
* Data showed that Chinese GDP grew by 4.5% year on year in the first three months of 2023
* Shanghai's refined zinc inventory fell in March.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 209.15 as data shows that China's aluminium output was 3.41 million mt in March (31 days), a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 935,000 mt as of April 17, down 31,000 mt from last Thursday and 105,000 mt from the same period last year. So far this month, the inventory has dropped by 153,000 mt. The weekly decline was in line with expectations. The current inventory is the lowest since 2018 when comparing with the same period of previous years. Stocks fell across all major markets. The inventory in Wuxi has fallen more than 100,000 mt since early April, and that in south China has fallen below 200,000 mt. The current inventory in Gongyi area is about 180,000 mt, and the decline in local inventory was smaller than that in Wuxi and south China. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total of CNY 170 billion via a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) to some financial institutions and held the interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on Monday while rolling over MLF policy loans for the fifth consecutive month. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.09% to settle at 2628 while prices are down -0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.8 and below same could see a test of 206.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.3, a move above could see prices testing 211.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208-217.8.
* Aluminum gains as Chinese economy is recovering, boosting the market.
* China March aluminium output growth slows on power issues in Yunnan
* China industrial output growth accelerates to 3.9%

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 991.4 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1169.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.16% to settle at 552 while prices are down -5.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 986.6 and below same could see a test of 981.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 996, a move above could see prices testing 1000.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956.5-1006.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.9 Rupees to end at 1170.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 6854 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6820.9 Rupees gained 50.35 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.24% to settle at 14920 while prices are down -54 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6794 and below same could see a test of 6734 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6904, a move above could see prices testing 6954.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6706-6886.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6820.9 Rupees gained 50.35 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -5.03% at 39750 on profit booking from all time high levels reached on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -679.8 Rupees to end at 40191.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.15% to settle at 8139 while prices are down -2105 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 39070 and below same could see a test of 38385 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40745, a move above could see prices testing 41735.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 39285-41225.
* Jeera prices gained on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 320.1 Rupees to end at 40511.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

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