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Statement on CPI data By Mr. Vivek Goel, Co-founder and Joint Managing Director Tailwind Financial Service Pvt Ltd

CPI inflation as per latest release came in at 7.01%, easing from May's 7.04%. With another month of moderation from April's peak reading at 7.79%, there is some relief for the policymakers as Q1FY23 inflation print at 7.3% as opposed to the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) estimate of 7.5%. Despite that, with inflation continuing to remain above RBI target of 2-6% for the 6th consecutive month, MPC remained wary of risks in upcoming policy meetings.

There has been a decline in commodity prices globally, on the back of recessionary concerns amid Covid-led lockdowns in China and aggressive policy tightening by the US Fed. While this might provide some relief from inflation, strengthening US dollar is weighing on INR and would keep the MPC to maintain need for frontloaded policy action and accordingly continue with rate hikes of 75-90 bps in the next 3 meets till December.

Within this month's inflation reading, core inflation (excl. food, fuel, pan & tobacco) remained sticky, at 6.2% vis-a-vis May's reading of 6.4%. This was led by Clothing & Footwear at 9.5% and Household Goods & services at 7.5%. Further, rise in food inflation moderated to 7.7% (May: 8%) as prices fell in some categories including Eggs (-5.5%) & Pulses (-1.0%).

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