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Published on 2/06/2020 9:01:08 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 02 June 2020 - Geojit Financial

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SPICES

* Jeera June futures on NCDEX inched up on Monday to hit its highest level in more than two weeks on dip in arrivals in the spot market. However, subdued demand weighed on, keeping gains under check.

* According to the Spices Board, exports rose 27 per cent during Apr-Dec 2019 to 167000 compared to same period last year.

* Coriander June futures on NCDEX ended rather flat on Monday. Dip in arrivals along with improvement in demand lend support.

* Govt. pegs 2019-20 coriander output at 762000 tonnes.

* According to Spices Board of India data, coriander exports were at 36750 tonnes during Apr-Dec 2019, up by one per cent compared to same period last year.

* Rise in arrivals in the key spot market of Nizamabad put downwards pressure on Turmeric prices on Monday. The most active June futures on the bourse inched down, stretching previous week’s losses.

* The agricultural mandis in Nizamabad, Telengana, have resumed trade on Wednesday after remaining shut for over two months due to a nationwide lockdown imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus pandemic

* Telangana pegs 2019-20 turmeric crop at 307,000 tn vs 294,000 tn

* Govt. pegs 2019-20 turmeric output at 913000 tonnes.

For the period Apr-Dec 2019, India exported 101,500 tn of turmeric, marginally up compared to 101,000 tonnes exported during the same period in 2018. However, in the value terms it showed a three per cent fall.

* Cardamom June futures on MCX was not traded on Monday while, July futures was unchanged. Prospects of better crop in the upcoming season weighed on.

* Spices Board India has sought permission to resume the electronic auction of small cardamom at its centre in Bodinayakanur, Tamil Nadu, the board said in a circular. Auctions at this centre were suspended since Mar 16 to contain the rapid spread of novel coronavirus.

* Small cardamom auctions in Puttady, another e-auction centre in Kerala, will resume from May 28, the board said in a circular. The board will hold one auction at this centre on alternate days between 1030 IST to 1600 IST till it gets approval to conduct two auctions daily.

 

OILSEED

* All commodities in the edible oil seed basket rose on Monday.

* MCX June CPO futures traded higher due to firm local demand from hotels and restaurants as government allowed some relaxations in lockdown. However, major gains were capped by weakness in benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures prices. NCDEX June Soy oil futures also lifted due to domestic demand .

* NCDEX June Soybean futures traded higher due to lower arrivals in the spot markets because of lean supply season. June Mustard seed also settled the day at positive note on back of lower supplies in the spot market.

* IGC reported that global soybean production is now seen at 363 mln tn in 2020-21 against 364 mln tn pegged last month.

* The Union Cabinet approved a hike in minimum support price for 14 major kharif crops.MSP for soybean hiked by Rs.170 to 3880 from 3710 per 100 kg.

* The US Department of Agriculture has revised palm oil production for Indonesia for 2019-20 at 41.5 mln tn, against the earlier estimate of 42.5 mln tn as plantation authorities may scale down production or cease harvest looking at the current higher stocks.

* The US Department of Agriculture has pegged global oilseed production in 2020-21 at 605.9 mln tn, compared with its estimate of 575.2 mln tn for 2019-20, primarily due to higher soybean production in its report for May. The report has pegged global soybean output 26.6 mln tn higher on year at 362.8 mln tn. For Brazil, soybean output is seen rising by 7.0 mln tn to 131.0 mln tn. Production of the oilseed in the US, is also seen rising by 15.5 mln tn to 112.3 mln tn. In Argentina, another key grower, soybean output is expected to be 2.5 mln tn higher at 53.5 mln tn. Global production of high-oil content seeds is projected up 3% from 2019- 20 on increased canola production for Canada, Australia, and Ukraine, and higher sunflower seed production for Argentina and Ukraine. Partly offsetting is lower sunflower seed production for Turkey. Demand for protein meal from China is also seen higher on year in 2020-21. Global protein meal consumption outside of China is projected to increase 2% in 2020-21, down from the prior five-year average of 3% due to the slowing global economy. Given the higher demand for protein meal, global soybean exports are expected to increase by 8.0 mln tn to 161.9 mln tn during the period. Of these stocks, China is seen buying the largest share at 96.0 mln tn.

* India's edible oil imports fell around 34% on year at 790,377 tn in April compared to 1,198,763 tons in April 2019 , The Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in a release. The overall import of edible oils during Nov-2019 to April 2020 is reported to down by 14 percent at 6,182,184 tons compared to 7,203,830 tons during the same period of previous year.

* India's oilmeal exports plunged 54% on year to 177,003 tn in March due to tepid purchases by major buyers, according to data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. For the year ended March, oilmeal exports were at 2.4 mln tn, against 3.3 mln tn the previous year. The export of soybmeal reduced to nearly half, mainly due to disparity in export and better realisation in domestic market. In March, soymeal exports slumped to 32,818 tn from 214,788 tn a year ago.

* Rapeseed-mustard meal exports fell 4.3% on year to 89,235 tn, while exports of rice bran oil fell 90% on year to 30,620 tn in March, according to SEA.

* The demand for the vegetable oil is likely to decline further in the second half of 2020 due to disruption in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, said Dorab Mistry, director of London-based Godrej International.

* Crushing of mustard seed by mills in India fell 21% on year to 750,000 tn in March, data from the Mustard Oil Producers Association of India showed. Mustard crushing during the same period last year was at 950,000 tn.

* Mustard crop for 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is pegged at 9.1 mln tn as against 9.3 mln tn produced a year ago, farm ministry data. Farmers across the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha as of Thursday, down 0.4% on year, farm ministry data showed.

* According to Government 2nd advance estimate, castor production in 2019-20 is expected at 2.0 mln tn, up from the previous estimate of 1.7 mln tn. Castor seed output in India is estimated at 2.1 mln tn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun), up from 1.1 mln tn pegged last year, according to a survey conducted by Indian Agribusiness Systems Ltd and commissioned by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* India's castor oil exports fell 6% on year to 38,199 tn in January, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India's data. For Apr-Jan, exports were also down at 441,030 tn, compared with 472,192 tn during the year-ago period. In 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), India's castor oil exports slipped to 571,985 tn in 2018-19 from 651,326 tn in the previous year.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output rose 18.3% on month in April to 1.7 mln tn, according to data from Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The country's total palm oil inventories rose 18.3% to little above 2.0 mln tn in April. Stocks of processed palm oil in the country were at 999,744 tn in April against 899,931 tn a month ago, and those of crude palm oil were at little above 1.0 mln tn compared with 829,649 tn in March. Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 4.4% higher at 1.2 mln tn, and its biodiesel exports fell 90.6% to 6,427 tn.

* Private cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported palm oil exports at 1.03 mln tn during May 1-25, up 10% on

 

Cotton

* Cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange are trading at their highest level since mid-March, currently trading up 3.8% at roughly 59.8 cents a pound--this after breaking the 60c barrier for the first time since March 16. The reason for today's uptick is the belief China may not opt to cut its purchasing of US cotton, even if it does stop purchasing US soybeans and other agricultural products.

* Arrivals of cotton in spot markets across the country today rose to 73,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 55,800 bales on Friday, sources said. In Gujarat, the shankar-6 variety was sold at 32,000-33,300 rupees per candy (1 candy = 355.62 kg) and in Maharashtra, the 29-30 mm variety was sold at 32,500-35,000 rupees per candy.

* UK-based Cotton Outlook has cut its global cotton consumption estimate to 22.2 mln tn for 2019-20 (AugJul), from 22.5 mln tn projected last month. Consumption has considerably declined in major markets lead to a rise in ending stocks on in its May report. Global ending stock of cotton in the current season is pegged at 3.6 mln tn compared with 3.56 mln tn projected in the previous month. The agency cut its projection for global production to 25.8 mln tn in 2019-20, due to a likely fall of output in India.The country's 2019-20 cotton production is seen at 6.04 mln tn, compared with 6.29 mln tn projected in the previous month.

* The Cotton Association of India has revised downward its crop estimate for India in the 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) season to 33.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), from 35.45 mln bales projected in the previous month.The association has also lowered its estimate for domestic consumption to 28.0 mln bales for the current year, compared with 33.1 mln bales a month ago.The estimate for imports has also been lowered to 1.5 mln bales, from 2.5 mln bales. Considering the opening stock of 3.2 mln bales, the cotton body expects the total supply in the current season to be around 37.7 mln bales. It has revised upward its export estimate at 4.7 mln bales, from 4.2 mln bales a month ago. The closing stock of cotton for the 2019-20 season is now pegged at 5.0 mln bales.

* Govt ups 2019-20 cotton output view to 36.05 mln bales vs 34.89 mln.

* USDA has pegged India's cotton acreage at 12.5 mln ha for the coming season, compared with 13.3 mln ha in 2019-20.

* US Department of Agriculture expects global production of cotton to fall by 3% to 118.95 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) in the season starting August. The agency has pegged 2020-21 world consumption at 116.5 mln bales, up from 105.0 mln bales expected in pandemic-hit 2019-20. Global exports for the coming season is pegged at 42.9 mln bales, up from 40.1 mln bales estimated for 2019-20.Global ending stocks in 2020-21 was pegged at 99.4 mln bales, up for the second consecutive year. Output in the US is likely to fall to 19.5 mln bales in 2020-21, compared with the estimate of 19.9 mln bales in 2019-20.

* The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service has projected India's 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) cotton crop to fall 3% to 36.5 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg).The expectation of lower production stems from likely fall in acreage to 12.64 mln ha from 13.3 mln in the ongoing year. Yields may though improve by 2% if rains remain normal as projected, it said in a report.India's 2020-21 cotton consumption is seen at 29.5 mln bales, higher from 28.9 mln bales in the current year. "The marginal increase is expected as textile industry operations restart and begin the process of recovery after the impact of the lockdown in marketing year 2019-20.Exports are forecast to rise to 4.5 mln bales in the coming season, while imports are expected to decline to 1.3 mln bales due to weakening.Opening stock of cotton in India is estimated at 19.6 mln bales in 2020-21. The closing stock is estimated at 23.5 mln bales, higher from 19.6 mln bales projected for the current year.

*  According to the initial planting survey report by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, acreage under cotton is seen at 5.6 mln ha. The largest increase in sowing area is expected in Texas. National Agricultural Statistics Service is the statistical branch of the USDA. The International Cotton Advisory Committee has revised downward its 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) forecast for global prices due to a sharp fall in consumption as containment measures for COVID-19 have shut business activity, in its May report. With the opening stock of 18.6 mln tn for 2019-20 season, global supply of cotton is projected at 44.9 mln tn. The committee has scaled down its global cotton consumption to 22.9 mln tn, from 24.6 mln tn projected in the previous month.Global export is projected to fall 11% to 8.3 mln tn, compared with 9.3 mln tn estimated a month ago. Ending stock for the current season is seen at 21.9 mln tn, higher than 19.7 mln tn projected a month ago.For India, the committee sees consumption declining 4.75 mln tn in 2019-20 season, from 5.13 mln tn estimated in the previous month. Cotton output in India is estimated at 6.2 mln tn, higher from 6.0 mln tn estimated in April.

 

OTHERS

* Government has purchased 6.73 lakh MT Chana under PSS Rabi-2020 as of 21st May2020. Out of the total, maximum has been purchased in Rajasthan-153452.41MT, followed by Andhra Pradesh-127915.1 MT, Karnataka-97858.32 MT, Maharashtra-95191.24 MT, Madhya Pradesh-78294 MT, Gujarat-62903.85 MT, Telangana-47600 MT, Uttar Pradesh-5651.73 MT and Harayan-4546 MT.

* Gujarat State Cooperation Marketing Federation Ltd ended procurement of chana at 35 of the 96 centres, as it achieved its target of procuring 25% of the total produce, according to the federation's chairman Dilip Sanghani. The federation have procured about 62,000 tn of chana out of 112,000 tn planned for this year.

* The Rajasthan State Co-operative Marketing Federation has procured 264,505 tn mustard and chana from 104,467 farmers at the minimum support price for 12.3 bln rupees, the government said in a press release.

*  Government cuts 2019-20 chana output view to 10.9 million tons from 11.2 million tons.

* The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange has extended the event-based additional surveillance margin of 5% on guar gum contracts till Jun 10, the bourse said in a circular.

* As per trade sources, export of guar split has declined in the month of February-20. Exports in the month of February-20 are lower by around 40% compared to previous month. India exported around 2020 tonnes of guar split in the month of February-20.

* As per trade sources, export of guar gum has increased in the month of Janaury-20 by 30.37 percent compared to previous month. India exported around 23178.89 tonnes of guar gum at an average FoB of $ 1710.37 per tonne in the month of January-20 compared to 17779.68 tonnes in December-19 at an average FoB of $ 1830.69 per tonne. Exports are expected to increase in February-20 on firm demand.

* Stretching gains, ICEX June rubber futures inched higher on Monday, hitting its highest level in more than six weeks on expectation of improvement in demand. Cues from the overseas market supported the sentiments as well.

* The Directorate General of Trade Remedies has recommended provisionally raising import duty on polybutadine or synthetic rubber from South Korea to those imported from other countries, according to reports. Currently, the basic customs duty on the product is 10%, but imports from South Korea attract concessional duty under the pact. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies has suggested provisional safeguard duties for 200 days, by when it will come up with its final report.

* The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said it has revised its estimate for global output of natural rubber in 2020 downward to 13.4 mln tn from 14.1 mln tn

 

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