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Gold

Gold settled 1.1% higher at Rs1,52,470 as gains in oil prices and bond yields lost momentum ahead of the latest US Federal Reserve policy decision, while ongoing Middle East supply disruptions continued to provide support to oil prices despite a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Federal Reserve unanimously raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, marking its first rate hike since 2023. Policymakers highlighted elevated inflation and reiterated the objective of returning inflation toward the 2% target. Updated projections showed 16 of 18 officials see scope for at least one more 25-basis-point hike later this year, while four officials projected two additional increases, keeping the interest-rate outlook a key influence on gold. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise borrowing costs, whereas the Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged. Goldman Sachs retained its end-2026 fair-value forecast of $4,900/oz, citing net upside risk from continued strong central-bank demand, while warning that the path could remain volatile. Renewed ETF inflows and elevated call-option positioning could amplify rallies through dealer hedging, whereas stronger Fed rate-hike expectations could trigger sharper pullbacks. COMEX gold speculators reduced net longs by 1,263 contracts to 139,548 for the week ended September 8. Physical demand in India remained subdued amid volatile prices, with dealers offering discounts of up to $75/oz compared with $54 previously, while Chinese bullion traded at an $8 premium to the global benchmark, reflecting stronger investment demand. Singapore gold traded between a $1 discount and $1.70 premium, while Hong Kong prices ranged from a $0.50 discount to a $1.70 premium, and Japan traded between a $0.25 discount and $0.50 premium. London vault holdings reached 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at $1.2 trillion. Technically, gold remains under short covering as open interest declined 4.15% to 8,818 while prices gained Rs1,661. Support is placed at Rs1,51,630, with a break below opening Rs1,50,790, while resistance is seen at Rs1,53,130, above which prices could test Rs1,53,790.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150790-153790.

* Gold gained as gains in oil prices and bond yields lost momentum ahead of the latest US Fed policy decision.

* The Fed unanimously raised the target range by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026 as expected, marking first rate hike since 2023.

* Goldman Sachs said its fair-value forecast of $4,900/oz for gold at end-2026 is conditional on the assumption of continued strong central bank demand.

Silver

Silver settled 1.15% higher at Rs2,34,786 as a weaker dollar and softer oil prices supported sentiment, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision for further direction. The Federal Reserve unanimously raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, marking its first rate hike since 2023, with policymakers noting that inflation remains elevated and the move is aimed at supporting a timely return toward the 2% target. Updated projections showed 16 of 18 officials see scope for at least one more 25-basis-point hike this year, while four projected two additional increases, keeping monetary policy a key driver for precious metals. US retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month in August, the strongest increase in four months, while export prices increased 0.6% and import prices climbed 0.7%, indicating persistent price pressures. Crude oil prices retreated after an unexpected build in US inventories and reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. COMEX silver speculators increased net longs by 2,006 contracts to 14,176 for the week ended September 8, indicating improved speculative positioning. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion, equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. The silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity constraints. The global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand declining 2%, while supply is forecast to fall 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to decline 3%, whereas coin and bar demand could rise 18%. Technically, silver remains under short covering as open interest declined 7.96% to 12,504 while prices gained Rs2,668. Support is placed at Rs2,33,560, with a break below opening Rs2,32,330, while resistance is seen at Rs2,36,060, above which prices could test Rs2,37,330.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 232330-237330.

* Silver prices rose as the dollar weakened and oil prices slipped.

* Fed Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated, and the move aims to support a more timely return to the 2% target.

* Retail sales in the US increased 1.2% month-over-month in August 2026, the most in four months.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 3.82% lower at Rs9,819 as reports of additional Saudi crude supplies to Asian refiners eased concerns over the scale of Middle East supply disruptions, while European diesel prices remained near record highs. Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude loadings through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port after drone attacks damaged its oil pipeline to the Red Sea, helping reduce immediate supply concerns. US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories increased last week according to American Petroleum Institute data, with crude stocks rising by 7.1 million barrels in the week ended September 11. However, the Energy Information Administration reported a 640,000-barrel decline in US crude inventories to 423.4 million barrels, smaller than market expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks increased by 794,000 barrels to 207.7 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels to 107.9 million barrels. Crude stocks at Cushing declined by 342,000 barrels, while refinery crude runs fell by 256,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization dropped 1 percentage point to 96.8%. Net US crude imports declined by 1.18 million barrels per day. US domestic crude production increased by around 85,000 barrels per day to a record 13.95 million barrels per day in the week ended September 4, highlighting strong supply availability. OPEC lowered its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand growth forecast. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply and demand to decline further than previously projected, citing prolonged Middle East disruptions and shrinking inventory buffers. The IEA warned that stretched global refining capacity and reduced buffers could increase market tightening risks if geopolitical conflicts persist. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 27.28% to 12,715 while prices fell Rs390. Crude oil is finding support at Rs9,649, and a break below this level could open the way toward Rs9,479, while resistance is placed at Rs10,042, above which prices could test Rs10,265.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9479-10265.

* Crude oil fell as reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes via Oman eased concerns.

* Saudi Arabia is offering more loadings of crude oil to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfer off Oman's Sohar port.

* U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories all rose last week, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.82% lower at Rs277.9, pressured by near-record production, comfortable storage levels and forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Average Lower 48 output was expected to decline to a two-month low of 108.4 bcfd on Tuesday, while above-normal temperatures through September 30 are likely to sustain demand for air conditioning and gas-fired power generation. Storage remained 3.6% above the five-year average for the week ended September 11, narrowing from a 4.8% surplus in the previous week, indicating that the inventory cushion continues to moderate despite strong production. US energy firms added 40 bcf of natural gas to storage during the week ended September 4, exceeding market expectations for a 31-bcf build and compared with a 69-bcf injection a year earlier and a five-year average increase of 52 bcf. Total inventories rose to 3.254 tcf, 2.4% below the corresponding year-ago level but 4.8% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, average flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities increased to 18.3 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, providing additional demand support. Equinor expects European Union gas storage to reach around 75% capacity by November, while current storage stands at 68.2%, 16.2 percentage points below the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration expects both natural gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026. Dry gas production is projected at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd and 94.8 bcfd respectively. LNG exports are projected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 5.41% to 30,351 while prices fell Rs2.3. Natural gas is finding support at Rs275, and a break below this level could open the way toward Rs272, while resistance is placed at Rs283.4, above which prices could test Rs288.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272-288.8.

* Natural gas slid on near-record output, ample amounts of fuel in storage

* Equinor says it expects EU gas inventories to reach around 75% of capacity by November

* Average output across the Lower 48 states was expected to fall to a two-month low of 108.4 bcfd

Copper

Copper settled 0.64% higher at Rs1,374.35, supported by signs of active demand from China, the world’s largest consumer, although traders remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Chinese buyers have been using the recent price decline to replenish inventories, lifting the Yangshan copper premium by 7% to $118 per tonne, its highest level in almost four years. Inflows into US COMEX copper stocks have slowed as uncertainty persists over potential refined copper tariffs, while the COMEX premium over London prices has declined sharply. LME copper market tightness has eased, with spreads moving into contango, although the shift appears more sentiment-driven amid continued uncertainty over US tariff policy. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports declined to 19.49 million tonnes during the first eight months from 20.06 million tonnes a year earlier. Supply concerns remain relevant, with Chilean copper production falling 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes due to severe weather and operational disruptions. Codelco output declined 5% to 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida production dropped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes; however, Collahuasi output increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. The International Copper Study Group reported a 60,000-tonne refined copper deficit in June, compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the market remained in a 131,000-tonne surplus during the first six months of the year. Global refined copper output reached 2.37 million tonnes in June against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 4.76% to 8,936 while prices gained Rs8.8. Copper is finding support at Rs1,369.4, and a break below this level could test Rs1,364.4, while resistance is placed at Rs1,377.9, above which prices could test Rs1,381.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1364.4-1381.4.

* Copper rose supported by signs of active demand in China

* Chinese buyers are taking advantage of the recent price dip to restock copper, helping lift import premiums.

* The Yangshan copper premium, rose 7% to $118 per ton, its highest level in almost four years, on Wednesday.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.7% higher at Rs420.1, supported by tight inventories outside China, with the LME cash premium over the three-month contract holding around $124 per tonne, indicating firm nearby physical demand. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability, while heightened Middle East tensions have restricted Iranian ore shipments. Major mines such as Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska have reported lower output while processing lower-grade ore sections, while sharply reduced smelter treatment charges further indicate tight concentrate availability. LME warehouse inventories remain low by historical standards, keeping physical zinc availability particularly constrained outside China. However, gains were limited by a stronger US dollar and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate tightening, while expectations of increased Chinese zinc exports to the LME added pressure. Rising Chinese exports could provide some relief to supply conditions in other markets, although elevated prices have also weakened demand and discouraged buyers in China. On the supply side, Nexa reported second-quarter zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes, up 8% year-on-year, supported mainly by higher ore grades. Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 99,600 tonnes or 21% year-on-year, while maintaining its full-year guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden produced 74,200 tonnes of zinc concentrate, down 16.8% quarter-on-quarter, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, representing 48% of its full-year guidance range. The global refined zinc market recorded a 31,400-tonne deficit in June versus a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market remained in a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes a year earlier. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 3.19% to 2,185 while prices gained Rs2.9. Zinc is finding support at Rs417.7, and a break below could test Rs415.3, while resistance is placed at Rs422.5, above which prices could test Rs424.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 415.3-424.9.

* Zinc prices gained supported by tight inventories outside China.

* The premium of the LME cash contract over the three-month contract at $124 per ton.

* Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.56% higher at Rs350.85, supported by concerns over the impact of the Iran war on Gulf supply and persistent tightness in physical inventories. Aluminium Bahrain is currently producing at an annualized rate of 1.3 million tonnes, around 19% below pre-war capacity, after shutting production lines 1, 2 and 3 when the Strait of Hormuz restrictions disrupted exports, followed by an Iranian attack on the plant in late March. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE stocks continued to decline, highlighting limited physical availability. Gulf Cooperation Council aluminium production fell 44% year-on-year in July, with the region accounting for around 10% of global production before the conflict. Emirates Global Aluminium reported its Al Taweelah smelter operating at 18% capacity and expects output to return to previous levels in early 2027. However, supply conditions could improve as several smelters restart curtailed capacity and pursue expansions, while higher Chinese exports may ease shortages. China exported 626,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in August, down from 643,000 tonnes in July, although January-August exports increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. China’s aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August output rose 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. Upside remained capped by stronger oil prices, renewed Middle East supply concerns and a firmer dollar as hotter US inflation increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 2.31% to 3,322 while prices gained Rs1.95. Support is placed at Rs349.1, with a break below opening Rs347.1, while resistance is seen at Rs353, above which prices could test Rs354.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 347.1-354.9.

* Aluminium gained due to worries about the effect of the Iran war on supplies from the Gulf producers.

* Aluminium Bahrain is producing aluminium at an annualised rate of 1.3 million tons, down 19% from its pre-war capacity.

* China aluminium production up 4.7 % to 3.98 mln metric tons in Aug – stats bureau

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.87% lower at Rs20,710 as renewed monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over dry weather and improved prospects for the upcoming crop. Reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh also improved, ensuring water availability during the vegetative phase and reducing immediate crop failure fears. Re-sowing in North Karnataka was completed following rainfall, while improved crop conditions created a softer undertone in the market. However, downside remained limited by structurally tight supplies, lower carry-forward stocks and concerns over possible El Nino impacts on the newly sown crop. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the overall supply buffer. Lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key growing regions has also raised concerns over production potential, while continued dryness during early crop development could adversely affect yields. Farmers increased selling during the peak harvest window, adding temporary pressure, while stockist activity remained steady but cautious. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations resulted in rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, while increasing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric supported compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes, supported by strong growth in several destinations. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes, Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes, Switzerland jumped 3,263% to 27 tonnes and Zambia increased 507% to 9 tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs20,232.4, gaining 0.37%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined marginally by 0.01% to 36,110 while prices fell Rs182. Turmeric is finding support at Rs20,556, and a break below could test Rs20,400, while resistance is placed at Rs20,928, above which prices could test Rs21,144.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20400-21144.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity eased dry-weather fears.

* Filling up of key reservoirs ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20232.4 Rupees gained by 0.37 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.37% higher at Rs21,685, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as supplies of export-grade high-purity seeds are declining faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering significantly, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable volumes. However, upside remained limited as farmers actively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow for the upcoming season, while favorable weather in North-West India allowed harvesting and drying to progress faster. NCDEX warehouse stocks continued to build, reducing urgency among traders for spot procurement, while large spice grinders remained cautious on bulk purchases and preferred hand-to-mouth buying. European and North American buyers have returned, particularly for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, but geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers. Improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists have reduced aggressive forward coverage. Current estimates place Indian cumin production at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China production is estimated at 70-80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, Libya rose 450% to 341 tonnes and Georgia increased 37% to 81 tonnes, but China exports declined 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs21,456.65, up 0.01%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 5.01% to 7,539 while prices gained Rs80. Jeera is finding support at Rs21,550, and a break below could test Rs21,420, while resistance is placed at Rs21,760, above which prices could test Rs21,840.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21420-21840.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21456.65 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views