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Gold

Gold prices settled sharply lower by 2.86% at Rs1,48,897, extending selling pressure as rising oil prices heightened inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Fed recently raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4%, while markets are pricing a 68% probability of another hike in October. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighted concerns that persistent inflation could become entrenched, keeping monetary policy restrictive. Investors will closely monitor US job openings, ADP employment, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls for further clues on the Fed’s rate path. Physical demand in India improved modestly after the recent price correction, particularly ahead of the festive season, with discounts narrowing to as much as $43 per ounce from $60 last week. Asian demand remained broadly steady, with Singapore premiums at $1.70–$2.50, Hong Kong premiums at $1.70–$2.00 and Japan trading between a $0.25 discount and $0.50 premium. London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes by end-July 2026, valued at around $1.2 trillion and equivalent to approximately 762,723 gold bars. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central-bank diversification as a structural support, although it warned that a more hawkish Fed could trigger a correction toward $4,070 before recovery toward $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, gold remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 15.12% to 14,798 while prices declined Rs4,380, indicating increased participation during the downmove. The market is currently finding support near Rs1,47,570, and a sustained break below this level could open the way toward Rs1,46,245. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,50,610, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger recovery toward Rs1,52,325. Overall, near-term price action remains weak amid rising yields, hawkish Fed expectations and inflation concerns.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 146245-152325.

* Gold fell as a rise in oil prices heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

* US President Trump said he rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting. Oil prices drifted higher.

* Feds Hammack is concerned that persistently high inflation risks conditioning the American public to accept elevated prices as the norm.

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply lower by 3.09% at Rs2,27,442 as stalled US-Iran negotiations kept oil prices elevated and strengthened expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening to contain inflation. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran maintained that it would not soften its conditions, increasing uncertainty over energy supplies and global growth. Several Fed officials supported a hawkish stance, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack citing resilient economic growth, a robust labor market and rising government debt concerns, while New York Fed President John Williams said another rate hike by year-end was reasonable. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also highlighted broader inflation pressures beyond energy and tariffs. Markets now await the US PCE inflation gauge and key employment data for further clues on monetary policy. London silver vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July 2026, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion, equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. Despite the recent correction, the global silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, even as total demand is expected to decline 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%. Total supply is expected to decline 2%, providing underlying support to the market. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 10.14% to 16,422 while prices declined Rs7,254, indicating increased participation during the fall. Silver is currently finding support near Rs2,24,730, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs2,22,015. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs2,31,230, while a decisive move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs2,35,015.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 222015-235015.

* Silver dropped as stalled US-Iran negotiations kept oil prices elevated and reinforced expectations for additional Fed tightening.

* Several Fed officials cited resilient economic growth and a robust labor market as reasons additional rate hikes could be necessary.

* COMEX silver speculative net longs rose 385 contracts to 13,016.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.71% higher at Rs8,911 as US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping geopolitical supply risks elevated. Crude exports from key Middle East producers rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the war began in February, while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were projected at around 7.4 million bpd. Bank of America raised its Brent forecast for the second half of 2026 to $95 per barrel from $83, citing prolonged geopolitical tensions, while warning that prolonged disruptions into spring 2027 could push front-month Brent above $150. Libya’s Sharara-Zawiya pipeline closure is causing losses of around 130,000 bpd, adding to regional supply concerns. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 284.6 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982. EIA data showed US commercial crude inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels, while Cushing stocks rose 2.3 million barrels to 23.7 million barrels. Refinery runs declined by 519,000 bpd, with utilization falling to 94%. Gasoline inventories declined 1.7 million barrels to 206 million, while distillate stocks fell 0.4 million barrels to 107.4 million. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 bpd, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and constrained refining capacity could tighten the market further if Middle East disruptions persist into 2027. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising 8.89% to 14,187 while prices gained Rs63, indicating increased participation alongside the upward move. The market is currently finding support near Rs8,686, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs8,460. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs9,215, while a decisive move above this zone could open the way toward Rs9,518.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8460-9518.

* Crude oil rebounded after US President Trump rejects peace deal from Iran

* Yemen's Saudi-led coalition intercepts missiles, drones launch by Houthis

* Mideast crude exports rebound in September as Hormuz flows rise

Natural gas

Natural gas settled sharply lower by 3.41% at Rs300 as expectations of rising US production following the return of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline increased supply pressure. LSEG data showed average Lower 48 gas output at 112.3 billion cubic feet per day in September, matching the record high recorded in August, although daily production was temporarily expected to fall to 107.5 bcfd due partly to pipeline maintenance. TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission lifted the force majeure on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline, which had affected around 1.4–1.8 bcfd of flows from the Marcellus and Utica shale regions, paving the way for higher supplies. US natural gas inventories remained above the five-year average, supported by record production and relatively mild weather. Storage increased by 53 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 18, matching market expectations but remaining below the 77-bcf build recorded a year earlier and the five-year average increase of 76 bcf. Storage was estimated at 2.4% above normal for the week ended September 25, compared with 2.9% previously. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although maintenance at Freeport LNG prompted a slight downward revision. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 48.72% to 38,795 while prices declined Rs10.6, indicating increased participation during the fall. The market is currently finding support near Rs297.4, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs294.7. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs304.5, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger recovery toward Rs308.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 294.7-308.9.

* Natural gas fell on expectations daily output will soon rise with the return to service of the Mountaineer XPress pipe in West Virginia

* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September.

* EIA data showed inventories rose by 53 Bcf for the week ended September 18.

Copper

Copper settled 0.99% lower at Rs1,405.25 as weak economic data from China, rising oil prices and a stronger US dollar weighed on demand prospects. China’s industrial profit growth slowed further in August, with gains in technology manufacturing linked to the AI boom offset by persistently weak domestic demand. Higher Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening to contain inflation also pressured copper. Meanwhile, copper supply indicators remained mixed. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories fell 15.9% from the previous week to 47,147 tonnes, while the LME cash-to-three-month spread widened into a backwardation of $124.75 per tonne from $68.93, indicating tighter nearby availability. Chilean copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July, with Codelco output down 5% to 112,800 tonnes and Escondida production declining 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes, although Escondida operations are now being progressively resumed. Collahuasi production increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. Peru’s copper output rose 3.7% year-on-year to 236,515 tonnes in July, while January-July production increased 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. The ICSG reported a global refined copper deficit of 51,000 tonnes in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June, while the January-July market remained in a 32,000-tonne surplus. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, copper remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.95% to 9,066 while prices declined Rs14, indicating increased participation during the downmove. The market is finding support near Rs1,394, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs1,382.6. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,416.9, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger recovery toward Rs1,428.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1382.6-1428.4.

* Copper fell as weak economic data from China, rising oil prices and the stronger dollar reinforced weak demand prospects.

* China's industrial profit growth slowed further in August.

* Operations at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile are being resumed progressively as assessments continue.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.43% lower at Rs416.3 as softer Chinese economic data weighed on the demand outlook, with China’s industrial profits rising 15.7% year-on-year during the first eight months of 2026, slowing from 17.6% growth in January-July as subdued domestic demand offset strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. However, downside was limited by tightening supply concerns after Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations. China’s zinc production declined 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking its first annual contraction in nearly a year and the weakest performance since May 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories also fell 1.9% from the previous Friday, providing some underlying support. Global supply concerns were further highlighted by Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production falling 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in H1 2026, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter also raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, China’s central bank reiterated its commitment to an appropriately loose monetary policy, stronger counter-cyclical adjustments and ample liquidity to support economic activity. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the January-June market still recorded a surplus of 120,000 tonnes compared with 74,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Technically, zinc remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.16% to 2,527 while prices declined Rs6.05, indicating increased participation during the downmove. Zinc is currently finding support near Rs413.3, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs410.2. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs420.6, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger recovery toward Rs424.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 410.2-424.8.

* Zinc dropped as softening economic data from China weighed on the demand outlook.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.9% from last Friday.

* However downside seen limited amid supply fears after smelter Nyrstar said it was launching a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.62% lower at Rs346.5 as expectations of improving supply weighed on prices, with several smelters restarting and ramping up previously curtailed capacity while expansion projects could add further availability. Chinese exports also remained a key factor, although August exports declined to 626,000 tonnes from 643,000 tonnes in July, while cumulative exports during the first eight months increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. China’s aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August output increased 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes, despite the country’s longstanding 45-million-tonne annual capacity ceiling. However, downside remained limited by tight physical supply. Gulf Cooperation Council aluminium production fell 44% year-on-year in July amid disruptions from the US-Iran conflict, while Aluminium Bahrain was operating at an annualised rate of 1.3 million tonnes, 19% below pre-war capacity after production lines were shut. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE aluminium inventories declined 4.7% from the previous week, highlighting constrained availability. Global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year to 6.172 million tonnes in August. Japanese aluminium stocks at three major ports increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August. Alcoa also lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Technically, aluminium remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 10.96% to 3,998 while prices declined Rs2.15, indicating increased participation during the downmove. The market is currently finding support near Rs345.3, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs344.2. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs347.4, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger recovery toward Rs348.4. Overall, aluminium remains caught between expectations of higher Chinese production and improving supply against persistent regional disruptions and low exchange inventories.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 344.2-348.4.

* Aluminium dropped as the supply outlook could improve as several smelters restart and ramp up previously curtailed capacity.

* Increased Chinese exports could also help ease supply shortages from the Gulf.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.7% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled sharply higher by 3.26% at Rs21,426 amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and concerns that deficient rainfall and El Nino conditions could affect the crop currently being sown. Continued dry weather during early crop development has raised yield risks, while carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall availability buffer. However, the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate drought concerns, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are supporting water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following improved rainfall, with crop conditions showing recovery. These developments have moderated concerns over production and created a softer undertone, although the market continues to monitor whether favourable weather will persist. European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits have resulted in rejections of non-IPM-compliant lots, pressuring commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window has added some pressure, although reduced carry-forward inventories remain supportive. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, but cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes, highlighting strong demand from several destinations. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric prices rose 2.23% to Rs20,673.2. Technically, turmeric remains under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising 1.19% to 37,295 while prices gained Rs676, indicating increased participation alongside the upward move. Support is placed near Rs21,026, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs20,624. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs21,754, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger a recovery toward Rs22,080.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20624-22080.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of lower overall output for the upcoming harvest.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* India’s turmeric exports declined 10% YoY to 13,489 tonnes in July-2026 from 15,071 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20673.2 Rupees gained by 2.23 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.10% lower at Rs22,065 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season, while favourable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating deliveries. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders continued with hand-to-mouth buying rather than bulk purchases, keeping demand steady but limiting aggressive procurement. However, downside remained limited as supplies of premium-quality bold seeds tightened rapidly, with arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper. European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities. Middle East geopolitical instability continues to weigh on logistics and traditional export demand, while improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria are pressuring Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists are also reducing forward coverage. Current estimates put India’s cumin production at 90–92 lakh bags, below 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Internationally, China’s production estimate has declined to 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9–10 thousand, 10–11 thousand and 10–12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports fell 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April-July exports declined 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but China exports plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, limiting overall export growth. In Unjha, spot prices remained around Rs21,970.4. Technically, jeera is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.53% to 6,462 while prices fell Rs245, indicating position unwinding. Support is placed near Rs21,870, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs21,670. On the upside, resistance is seen near Rs22,320, while a decisive move above this zone could lead to Rs22,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21670-22570.

* Jeera prices declined as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21970.4 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views