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Gold

Gold settled 0.54% higher at Rs1,50,120, supported by easing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month after US job growth slowed more than expected in September and prior-month payrolls were revised lower, although gains remained capped by a firmer dollar and elevated Treasury yields. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reached 24-year highs, reflecting persistent pressure in the bond market. Markets still price an 87% probability of a December rate hike, while September US services activity slowed, even as strong domestic demand strained supply chains and pushed input prices to their highest level in more than four years, highlighting continued inflation risks into 2027. HSBC reduced its average 2026 gold forecast to $4,490 per ounce from $4,560, citing expectations of further US rate hikes and higher oil prices, while its 2027 forecast was lowered to $4,825. Physical demand across key Asian markets improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers, with Indian demand expected to benefit from Dussehra and Diwali. Indian dealers quoted discounts of up to $14 per ounce, narrowing sharply from $43 last week, while China traded at $5-$10 premiums. Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan saw prices ranging from modest discounts to premiums. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at $1.2 trillion, equivalent to around 762,723 bars. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400, citing continued central-bank diversification as a structural bullish driver, although a more hawkish Fed could temporarily push gold toward $4,070. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.88% to 16,179 while prices gained Rs804. Gold has support at Rs1,49,025, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs1,47,925. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,50,900, and a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs1,51,675.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147925-151675.

* Gold prices gained amid easing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month

* The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields hit 24-year highs as negative sentiment in the bond market prevailed.

* Traders are still pricing an 87% probability of an increase in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Silver

Silver settled 0.51% higher at Rs2,27,242, supported by softer US jobs data and reduced expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike, although gains were limited by a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns. Markets now price around a 78% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighted fiscal and inflation risks, and New York Fed President John Williams said another rate hike by year-end remains reasonable. US services-sector cost pressures increased at the fastest pace in more than four years, while Treasury yields climbed to fresh 24-year highs amid the ongoing global bond selloff. COMEX silver speculators reduced net long positions by 5,278 contracts to 7,738 for the week ending September 29, indicating a more cautious positioning stance. London silver vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to around 940,423 bars. Despite weaker demand expectations, the global silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025, even as total demand declines 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is forecast to rise 18%. Total supply is also projected to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.41% to 16,517 while prices gained Rs1,155. Silver has support at Rs2,25,055, and a break below this level could lead to a test of Rs2,22,865. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs2,28,755, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs2,30,265.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 222865-230265.

* Silver gains amid support from softer US jobs data and reduced expectations for an October rate hike by Fed.

* The dollar strengthened largely as the euro weakened amid rising political uncertainty and fiscal concerns across Europe.

* Treasury yields climbed to fresh 24-year highs as the global bond selloff continued, driven by mounting fiscal risks.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.47% lower at Rs8,628, pressured by resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release that eased immediate supply concerns, although persistent security risks in the region limited the downside. Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, supported by stronger Saudi exports despite attacks on its infrastructure and escalating Iranian attacks on regional shipping, while Iranian exports fell to zero amid a US blockade. OPEC+ agreed to keep November production targets unchanged, suggesting further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year. However, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee noted that global oil markets remain volatile and tight, with supply shortages still present. US crude speculators reduced WTI net long positions by 17,317 contracts to 131,150 for the week ending September 29. EIA data showed US crude inventories rose 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels, against expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks increased 553,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs declined by 554,000 barrels per day, with utilization falling 1.5 percentage points to 92.5%. Gasoline inventories declined 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, supporting diesel futures, which gained 4.5% to $5.1175 per gallon. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA expects further pressure on supply and demand as Middle Eastern flows remain disrupted into 2027. The IEA warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could intensify market tightness. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.67% to 9,502 while prices fell Rs41. Crude oil has support at Rs8,446, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs8,264. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,752, and a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs8,876.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8264-8876.

* Crude oil prices fell as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns.

* Gulf oil flows excluding Iran surged to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, data showed.

* Crude oil speculators reduced their WTI net long positions by 17,317 contracts, bringing the total to 131,150 contracts.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.07% higher at Rs301.2, supported by lower US production in recent weeks due to pipeline disruptions and increased flows toward LNG export facilities, with expectations of a liquefaction train returning at Freeport LNG in Texas. US Lower 48 output averaged 111.7 billion cubic feet per day in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, while daily production was expected to fall to a four-month low of 108.9 bcfd due to force majeure events and pipeline issues across Kentucky, Texas and West Virginia. The December-November futures premium narrowed to a record low near 28 cents per mmBtu, indicating limited concern over winter supply availability. Lower 48 gas demand, including exports, is projected to decline from 106.3 bcfd this week to 104.5 bcfd next week. Average flows to nine major US LNG export plants fell to 16.9 bcfd in October from 17.9 bcfd in September and the April record of 18.8 bcfd. US natural gas inventories increased by 64 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 25, matching expectations, taking total stocks to 3.415 trillion cubic feet, 3.9% below last year but 2.4% above the five-year average. The latest injection exceeded last year's 56 bcf build but remained below the five-year average of 80 bcf. Preliminary estimates indicate another 79 bcf injection for the week ended October 2, below the five-year average of 96 bcf. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are projected to reach 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 15.95% to 34,932 while prices gained Rs6.1. Natural gas has support at Rs297.5, and a break below could test Rs293.8. Resistance is placed at Rs303.6, and a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs306.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 293.8-306.

* Natural gas rose on a drop in output due to pipeline problems and a recent increase in flows to LNG export plants

* Daily output drops to four-month low of 108.9 bcfd on Tuesday amid pipeline problems

* LNG feedgas rises to one-week high of 17.6 bcfd as Freeport flows are expected to increase

Copper

Copper settled 0.21% higher at Rs1,413.45 as fading prospects for a US Federal Reserve rate hike outweighed pressure from a stronger dollar. Supply concerns intensified after Chilean copper production fell 12.8% year-on-year in August to 369,500 tonnes, the lowest monthly output since February 2011, while workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine voted to strike and supervisors at Escondida rejected a collective contract offer, raising the risk of further disruptions. China’s manufacturing activity improved in September, with the official PMI rising to 50.1 from 49.8, while the RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5, indicating stronger industrial activity. Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 17.8% week-on-week to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024, as pre-holiday demand supported withdrawals. China’s domestic physical premium eased to 1,050 yuan per tonne from 1,375 yuan, while the Yangshan import premium rose to $119 per tonne. Bank of America raised its 2031 copper price forecast by 20% to $13,577 per tonne, citing tightening supply outside the US and persistent market tightness in China. COMEX copper speculators reduced net long positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709. The ICSG reported a refined copper deficit of 51,000 tonnes in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June, while the January-July market showed a 32,000-tonne surplus compared with 157,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s unwrought copper imports fell to 382,000 tonnes in August, with January-August imports down 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.19% to 8,308 while prices gained Rs2.95. Copper has support at Rs1,410, and a break below could test Rs1,406.4. Resistance is placed at Rs1,416.9, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,420.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1406.4-1420.2.

* Copper rose as fading prospects for a Fed rate hike outweighed pressure from a strong dollar.

* BofA raises long-term copper forecast on tightening supply outlook

* COMEX copper speculators lowered their net long positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.03% higher at Rs417.6, supported by tightening supply conditions and disruptions across major producing regions, although concerns over future Chinese export deliveries to the London Metal Exchange and weakness in LME copper limited further gains. Nyrstar announced a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, while Japan’s Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% year-on-year. China’s industrial profits increased 15.7% during the first eight months, moderating from 17.6% growth in January-July as subdued domestic demand offset strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. Chinese factory activity returned to growth in September, with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 from 49.8, while the RatingDog PMI climbed to a five-month high of 52.1 from 51.5, indicating improving manufacturing conditions. China’s zinc production declined 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking its first annual contraction in nearly a year and weakest performance since May 2025. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses also declined 1.8% from the previous Friday, providing additional support to prices. The global refined zinc market recorded a modest 13,000-tonne surplus in July as refined output of 1.190 million tonnes exceeded demand of 1.177 million tonnes. Demand increased 0.56%, ending three consecutive months of contraction, while refined production rose 0.3%. China remained the largest refined zinc producer with output near 629,000 tonnes. However, global zinc mine production fell for a fifth consecutive month, declining 8% year-on-year to around 995,000 tonnes, the steepest contraction since May 2024, highlighting tightening upstream availability. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 7.74% to 2,205 while prices gained Rs4.25. Zinc has support at Rs413.9, and a break below this level could lead to a test of Rs410.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs419.8, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs421.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 410.1-421.9.

* Zinc gained supported by tightening supply and disruptions across major producing regions.

* Smelter Nyrstar said it was launching a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations.

* Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 metric tons of refined zinc in second half of the 2026 fiscal year, up 32% from a year ago.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.86% higher at Rs341.4, supported by an improving demand outlook as fading expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate hike outweighed pressure from a stronger dollar. Markets now price an 18% probability of a rate hike this month, sharply lower than 64% a week earlier after weaker-than-expected US jobs data. However, gains were capped by easing concerns over Gulf supply disruptions and expectations of new Indonesian production capacity. Macquarie lowered its 2026 global aluminium deficit forecast to 820,000 tonnes from 940,000 tonnes, citing faster-than-expected Middle East smelter restarts, while still describing near-term conditions as relatively tight due to Chinese downstream restocking. The firm expects the market to shift to a 410,000-tonne surplus in 2027 and forecasts average prices of $3,050 per tonne in 2027 versus $3,325 this year. Emirates Global Aluminium restarted a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter, while Rio Tinto secured continued operations at its Bell Bay smelter through 2031. Chinese aluminium exports rose 17.2% year-on-year in August amid tepid domestic demand and elevated inventories, while Japanese port stocks increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes. Global aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in August, with GCC output plunging 43% to 299,000 tonnes, while Chinese production rose 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. SHFE aluminium stocks declined by 57,244 tonnes and LME inventories fell by 15,575 tonnes, indicating tighter available supplies. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and semis reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year, while January-July exports rose 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.97% to 4,837 while prices gained Rs2.9. Aluminium has support at Rs339.4, and a break below could test Rs337.5. Resistance is placed at Rs342.5, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs343.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 337.5-343.7.

* Aluminium rose supported by an improving demand outlook after cooling interest rate expectations.

* However upside seen limited amid easing worries about supply from Gulf and expectations of new production capacity in Indonesia.

* Macquarie downgraded their forecast for this year's deficit in global aluminium market to 820,000 tons, down 120,000 tons from June estimate.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.19% higher at Rs22,332, supported by severe drought conditions in Karnataka that have raised concerns over crop losses, production and future supplies. A joint drought survey by the Karnataka State Departments of Horticulture and Revenue and KSDMA estimated turmeric crop losses at 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs18,824 lakh, against total state cultivation of around 18,000-20,000 hectares. Prices also gained amid hand-to-mouth supply conditions, concerns over El Nino, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and declining carry-forward stocks accumulated over the previous three to four years. Continued dryness during early crop development could further affect yields, while industry estimates place carry-forward stocks near 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season. However, revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased immediate weather concerns, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh supported water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM-compliant lots, while rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Farmers increased selling during the peak harvest window, limiting gains, while cautious stockist activity managed immediate supply pressure. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, although April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes. In Nizamabad, the major spot market, prices fell 1.08% to Rs21,037.7. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.29% to 36,400 while prices gained Rs42. Turmeric has support at Rs22,148, and a break below could test Rs21,964. Resistance is placed at Rs22,558, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs22,784.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21964-22784.

* Turmeric prices rallied as drought conditions in Karnataka have severely affected turmeric cultivation, raising concerns over crop.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21037.7 Rupees dropped by -1.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.06% higher at Rs23,815, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade high-purity supplies are shrinking faster than overall physical availability. Arrivals across major markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started tapering, while European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to weigh on logistics and demand from traditional buyers. Upside remained limited as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the upcoming season, while favorable weather in North-West India accelerated harvesting and drying. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced urgency for spot procurement, while industrial spice grinders continued hand-to-mouth purchases instead of bulk buying, keeping demand steady but cautious. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat regions have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are weighing on Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists have also reduced forward coverage. National jeera production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Overseas production is also under scrutiny, with China output estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, Syria at 9,000-10,000 tonnes, Turkey at 10,000-11,000 tonnes and Afghanistan at 10,000-12,000 tonnes. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, while Libya rose 450% to 341 tonnes, but exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices declined 0.05% to Rs23,642.1. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.04% to 4,395 while prices gained Rs250. Jeera has support at Rs23,480, and a break below could test Rs23,150. Resistance is placed at Rs24,070, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs24,330.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23150-24330.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23642.1 Rupees dropped by -0.05 percent.

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