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Gold

Gold prices settled 1.9% lower at Rs 143,309 as rising crude oil prices heightened inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 policy meeting. Brent crude climbed to its highest level since May following renewed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about escalating regional conflict and potential disruptions to global oil supplies. US consumer and producer inflation exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy, although the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting. Goldman Sachs anticipates a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, with traders pricing in an 86% probability of an increase. Meanwhile, COMEX gold speculative net long positions declined by 3,741 contracts to 111,079 in the week ended October 13, indicating reduced investor bullishness. In physical markets, Indian gold premiums rose to as much as $7 per ounce over domestic prices as lower prices encouraged jewellery purchases, while September gold imports dropped sharply to $1.8 billion from $9.6 billion a year earlier. China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces in September from 76.73 million ounces in August, although the value of its reserves declined to $323.52 billion. Swiss gold exports increased 6% month-on-month to 165.2 tonnes in September, supported by record shipments to Britain since at least 2012, while exports to China and India declined. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as a key long-term driver, despite the risk of near-term corrections from tighter monetary policy. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 0.29% to 16,645 contracts while prices declined by Rs 2,770, indicating fresh position building alongside the price fall. Support is placed at Rs 142,520, followed by Rs 141,740, while resistance is seen at Rs 144,610 and Rs 145,910. A sustained break below immediate support could extend bearish momentum, whereas a recovery above Rs 144,610 may improve sentiment and open the way towards the next resistance level.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 141740-145910.

• Gold slipped as a rally in oil prices heightened inflation worries ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week.

• US consumer and producer inflation data came in hotter than expected, largely on higher energy costs.

• FOMC interest-rate decision, PCE data due next week

• Goldman Sachs expects one more 25-basis-point hike in December, lifting the peak policy rate range to 4.00%-4.25%.

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply lower by 4.57% at Rs 199,599 as profit booking, weakening speculative positions, and changing physical market dynamics weighed on sentiment. India has issued permits to import approximately 6,500 metric tons of silver over the next six months to meet festive-season demand after imposing restrictions on silver imports in May and tightening regulations in June. However, Indian silver premiums declined to $0.45 per ounce from as much as $2.50 last week, indicating easing immediate physical market tightness. Rising crude oil prices following a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field, renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and persistent energy-driven inflation concerns continued to influence monetary policy expectations. Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates at its October meeting, markets anticipate a possible December rate hike. COMEX silver speculative net long positions declined by 1,874 contracts to 5,735 in the week ended October 13, reflecting reduced bullish positioning. Meanwhile, London vaults held 28,985 tonnes of silver at the end of September 2026, up 1.95% month-on-month and valued at $56.6 billion. Despite recent price weakness, the global silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus estimate that cumulative stock drawdowns have reached 762 million ounces since 2021. However, total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial silver fabrication could fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker industrial and jewellery consumption. In contrast, coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, partly offsetting the industrial slowdown. Global silver supply is projected to decline 2%, reinforcing longer-term supply concerns despite improving market liquidity. Technically, silver is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 4.27% to 19,038 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 9,569, indicating the closure of existing positions rather than fresh short formation. Immediate support is placed at Rs 196,940, followed by Rs 194,290, while resistance stands at Rs 204,130 and Rs 208,660. A break below support could extend the correction, whereas a sustained recovery above Rs 204,130 may improve sentiment and open the way towards the next resistance level.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 194290-208660.

• Silver dropped as India has issued permits to import around 6,500 metric tons of silver over the next six months.

• Silver premiums over official ‌domestic prices fell to 45 cents per ounce on Thursday, down from up to $2.50 last week.

• Reports suggested that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.

• Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, after Chair Warsh’s remarks did little to alter expectations for a pause.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 3% higher at Rs 9,484 as renewed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over escalating Middle East tensions and potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Supply risks intensified after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported attacks on four vessels involved in illegal oil transfers in the northern Gulf, while three additional vessels reportedly collided with mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. In Libya, the shutdown of a pipeline valve connecting the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port reduced production at both fields. Supporting the market, US crude inventories declined by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, significantly exceeding expectations for a draw of 820,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks also fell by 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose 7.9% month-on-month to 4.451 million barrels per day in August, their highest level since March, despite production falling to 6.24 million barrels per day. OPEC revised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast downward to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but expects deferred demand to support growth in 2027 as depleted inventories require replenishment. Meanwhile, Russian crude production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although it remained below year-ago levels amid ongoing refining disruptions. The International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude exports rose to 5.3 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan’s crude and condensate exports declined by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.02% to 13,346 contracts while prices increased by Rs 276, indicating the closure of existing short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 9,355, followed by Rs 9,220, while resistance is seen at Rs 9,570 and Rs 9,655. A sustained move above Rs 9,570 could extend the recovery towards Rs 9,655, whereas a break below Rs 9,355 may renew selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9220-9655.

• Crude oil rose after more Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns over an escalation of the Middle East conflict.

• US plans to withdraw family members from regional missions, US officials say

• Saudi Aramco asks staff to evacuate headquarters in Dhahran, sources say

• Saudi Arabian crude oil exports in August rose by about 7.9% from July to 4.451 mbpd, the highest level ‌since March

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled marginally higher by 0.07% at Rs 305 as a smaller-than-expected increase in US storage inventories provided support, although expectations of stronger production and a comfortable supply-demand balance limited gains. The US Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 16, below market expectations of 79 billion cubic feet, the year-earlier increase of 86 billion cubic feet, and the five-year average of 87 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.644 trillion cubic feet, remaining 4% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average. Average natural gas production across the Lower 48 states declined to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day in October from record highs of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September, while average gas flows to major US liquefied natural gas export facilities increased to 18.1 billion cubic feet per day from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected to increase to 92.4 billion cubic feet per day and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. LNG exports are forecast to reach 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, supporting demand growth. However, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and expectations that US supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. The bank expects the market to remain well supplied in the near term, limiting the potential for a sustained price recovery. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 9.54% to 38,508 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs 0.20, indicating the addition of new positions amid rising prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 301, followed by Rs 297.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 308 and Rs 311.50. A sustained move above Rs 308 could extend the recovery towards Rs 311.50, whereas a break below Rs 301 may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 297.50-311.50.

• Natural gas steadied after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected weekly increase in storage inventories.

• US energy companies added 77 bcf of natural gas to storage, falling short of market expectations for an injection of 79 bcf.

• Total gas inventories rose to 3.644 tcf, standing 4% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

• LSEG said average gas output was down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 111.5 bcfd so far in October.

Copper

Copper prices settled 1.99% lower at Rs 1,362.70 as rising inventories on the London Metal Exchange eased immediate supply concerns, despite persistent risks of regional supply bottlenecks outside the United States. LME copper stocks increased by 29,050 tonnes to 272,950 tonnes, the highest since July 24, with approximately 62% of inventories held in the United States amid expectations of potential import tariffs from next year. US warehouse stocks reached 169,475 tonnes, their highest level in 12.5 years. However, strong Chinese import demand supported the market outlook, with September copper imports rising 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes, while the Yangshan import premium climbed to $148 per tonne, its highest since October 2022. Supply disruptions remained a concern as BHP reported a 19% decline in quarterly copper output to 400,700 tonnes, while production at Peru’s mines fell 5% year-on-year in August. Chilean production also faced operational challenges, although Antofagasta reported a 7% increase in third-quarter output and workers at its Centinela mine ended their strike. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and projected deficits outside the United States. However, the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, with the surplus widening from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by expanding refinery capacity and mine production. Global refined copper production is forecast to increase 3.4% in 2027, while consumption is projected to rise 2.5%, supported by electrification, renewable energy, digitalisation, data centres, and semiconductor manufacturing. Technically, copper is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 13.24% to 5,169 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 27.70, indicating the closure of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,337, followed by Rs 1,311.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,386.50 and Rs 1,410.50. A sustained break below support could extend the correction, whereas a recovery above Rs 1,386.50 may improve sentiment and open the way towards the next resistance level.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1311.50-1410.50.

• Copper fell as further inflows into LME warehouses eased some supply fears.

• LME Copper stocks climbed for a fourth day after 29,050 tons of inflows, chiefly in the US storage hub of New Orleans.

• COMEX copper stocks have climbed for 23 days straight to a record 794,450 short tons, or 720,712 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.9% lower at Rs 415.05 as expectations of a global refined zinc surplus in 2027 weighed on sentiment, although tight nearby availability and declining Chinese inventories limited further losses. The London Metal Exchange cash contract continued trading at a premium to the three-month contract, indicating immediate supply tightness. Meanwhile, zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.5% from the previous Friday, reducing the inventory overhang in China, the world's largest zinc consumer. Supply concerns persisted in Western markets, where refined zinc production fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands added uncertainty over future production. China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, while its mine output is expected to recover in October as operations resume following accidents and safety inspections. However, expectations of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability and expanding global mine production could ease supply constraints. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group expects the global refined zinc market to shift from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027. Global refined zinc production is forecast to rise 2% to 14.21 million tonnes, while mine production is projected to increase 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Demand is expected to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, supported by consumption in Europe, India and the United States. However, Chinese demand growth is projected to slow to 0.3% from 1.8% this year due to weaker real estate investment. China's net imports of refined zinc plunged 79% year-on-year to 38,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, reflecting increased domestic smelting capacity and improving self-sufficiency. Technically, zinc is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 7.98% to 1,602 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 8.05, indicating the closure of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 412, followed by Rs 409, while resistance is seen at Rs 420.50 and Rs 425.50. A sustained break below Rs 412 could extend the decline, whereas a recovery above Rs 420.50 may improve sentiment and open the way towards the next resistance level.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 409.00-425.50.

• Zinc dropped as global refined zinc market is expected to swing to a surplus of 25,000 metric tons in 2027 from a deficit.

• Chinese mine output is expected to rise month-on-month in October as operations resume.

• LME cash contracts traded at a premium to three-month contracts, signalling tightness in immediate availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.57% lower at Rs 323.10 as expectations of rising global supply in 2027 weighed on sentiment, despite declining exchange inventories and persistent physical market tightness. Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027 following the March shutdown. Meanwhile, London Metal Exchange opening stocks stood at 238,375 tonnes, their lowest level of the 21st century, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 11% from the previous Friday, providing underlying support. However, supply concerns eased as restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of relaxation, Gulf smelters gradually restored operations, and Indonesian production expanded. Indonesia's aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year-on-year, helping offset supply losses from the Gulf. China produced 11.84 million tonnes of primary aluminium in the third quarter, up 2.2% year-on-year, while September output rose 3.1% to 3.91 million tonnes. Production during the first nine months reached 35.03 million tonnes, up 3.8% year-on-year, supported by strong smelting margins and high operating rates. Nevertheless, the International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production of 6.014 million tonnes in September, down from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier. Looking ahead, the global aluminium market could move into a surplus exceeding one million tonnes in 2027 as Indonesian capacity expands and Gulf production recovers. China's primary aluminium output is projected to reach 45.7 million tonnes in 2027, while approximately six million tonnes of annual smelting capacity is expected to be added outside China between 2026 and 2028. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October to December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting improved supply expectations. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 27.43% to 2,722 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 1.85, indicating the closure of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 322, followed by Rs 320.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 324.50 and Rs 326. A sustained break below Rs 322 could extend the decline, whereas a recovery above Rs 324.50 may open the way towards the next resistance level.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 320.50-326.00.

• Aluminium dropped as EGA has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity.

• China's primary aluminium production hit a record quarterly high in July to September.

• Aluminium is expected to swing into a surplus in 2027, potentially of more than 1 million metric tons

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled sharply higher by 4.09% at Rs 26,596 amid renewed demand, reduced stockist selling, and tight spot availability as traders withheld stocks following earlier liquidation phases. Concerns over deficient rainfall, El Niño-related weather risks, and potential yield losses supported prices, particularly as carry-forward stocks have declined substantially. Karnataka's joint drought survey reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs 18,824 lakh, against state cultivation of approximately 18,000–20,000 hectares. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks have fallen to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall supply buffer. However, an assessment projected India's turmeric production to increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop stress concerns. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, although traders remain cautious about the impact of weather conditions on yields. Export trends remained mixed, with India's turmeric exports declining 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April–July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes last year, supported by strong demand from Turkey, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, and other destinations. Stricter European Union maximum residue limits have pressured non-compliant commercial-grade turmeric, while growing demand for Integrated Pest Management-certified stocks has provided support to compliant varieties. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices rose 6.26% to Rs 24,229.95. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.27% to 17,970 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs 1,046, indicating fresh position building amid rising prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 26,040, followed by Rs 25,480, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,940 and Rs 27,280. A sustained move above Rs 26,940 could extend the rally towards Rs 27,280, whereas a break below Rs 26,040 may trigger profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 25480-27280.

• Turmeric prices gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation in some turmeric growing states

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24229.95 Rupees gained by 6.26 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 1.6% higher at Rs 26,595 amid tight nearby supplies, declining arrivals, and expectations of improved export demand during the lean season. Farmers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window, while tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds has supported the market. Although overall physical availability remains relatively stable, export-grade, high-purity cumin supplies are shrinking faster than anticipated, particularly as arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering off. However, upside remained limited by aggressive farmer selling to generate cash for the upcoming season, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks, and cautious procurement by industrial spice grinders. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while renewed interest from European and North American importers in residue-compliant, high-specification lots provides selective support. Expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. India's cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, including 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan. Adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's production estimates to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes, and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. Export performance remains weak, with India's jeera exports declining 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative April–July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes last year. Strong cumulative export growth to Singapore, Libya, and Georgia was insufficient to offset an 88% decline in shipments to China. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices declined 0.13% to Rs 26,120.35. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.38% to 9,276 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs 420, indicating fresh position building. Immediate support is placed at Rs 26,120, followed by Rs 25,650, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,870 and Rs 27,140. A sustained break above Rs 26,870 could extend the recovery towards Rs 27,140, whereas a decline below Rs 26,120 may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25650-27140.

• Jeera prices rallied amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring sowing and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26120.35 Rupees dropped by 0.13 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views