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Gold

Gold saw a modest decline of -0.52%, settling at 58626, influenced by a stronger dollar. The market remained cautious ahead of the U.S. inflation report, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The New York Fed reported that Americans' views on inflation remained largely unchanged in August. The European Central Bank was scheduled for a rate decision, with market expectations leaning towards a possible rate hike. The European Commission lowered its growth forecast for the euro zone, citing Germany's slide into recession as a contributing factor. China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, added approximately 29 tons of gold to its reserves in August, signaling a continued interest in gold. While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady this month, 45% of the market anticipates a final 25bps rate hike in November due to concerns about persistent inflation. In India, physical gold discounts reached their highest level in seven weeks due to strong domestic prices, while China saw higher premiums driven by optimism related to economic support measures. The market witnessed long liquidation, with a -2.21% drop in open interest and a -304 rupee price decline. Support for Gold is expected at 58435, with potential testing at 58240. Resistance levels may emerge at 58910, with the possibility of testing 59190.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58240-59190.
* Gold inched lower due to a slight uptick in the dollar
* Although prices held a narrow range ahead of a widely watched U.S. inflation print that could provide more clarity
* Americans' overall views on inflation were little changed in August, the New York Fed reported

Silver

Silver saw a minimal decline of -0.01%, settling at 71934, as the dollar strengthened. Investors awaited key U.S. inflation and macroeconomic data ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. In the United States, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 91.3 in August, below market expectations of 91.6. A notable 23% of small business owners identified inflation as their primary concern. Germany's current account surplus surged to EUR 18.7 billion in July 2023, a significant increase from EUR 7.8 billion in the same period last year. This was driven by a goods surplus of EUR 18.8 billion, with exports declining by 1.4% and imports falling by 10.7%. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause its recent rate hikes but uncertainty surrounds the November outlook, with a 42.6% chance of another quarter-point rate increase. The market experienced fresh selling, with a 0.74% increase in open interest and an -8 rupee price decrease. Support for Silver is anticipated at 71430, with potential testing at 70930. Resistance levels may emerge at 72340, with the possibility of testing 72750.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70930-72750.
* Silver edged lower as the dollar recovered some lost ground
* Investors looked ahead to the release of key U.S. inflation and other macroeconomic indicators this week
* Fed is likely to pause its recent series of rate hikes next week but the outlook for November remains a little more uncertain.

Crude oil

Crude oil recorded a significant gain of 1.89%, settling at 7385, driven by OPEC's positive outlook for oil demand growth. Despite ongoing U.S. sanctions on Iran and Saudi Arabia's voluntary cuts, OPEC reported an increase in oil production for August, primarily due to Iran's production recovery. OPEC maintained its optimistic forecasts for robust global oil demand growth in 2023 and 2024, citing positive economic signs in major economies. They expect demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, consistent with the 2.44 million bpd growth projected for 2023. China's reopening and rebounding demand contributed to increased oil consumption in 2023. OPEC's outlook for 2024 demand growth surpasses that of other forecasters like the International Energy Agency. OPEC anticipates that oil demand will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2023, driven by economic growth, tourism, air travel, and increased mobility. The market observed fresh buying, with a significant 41.46% rise in open interest and a 137 rupee price increase. Support for Crude oil is expected at 7292, with potential testing at 7200. Resistance levels may emerge at 7438, with the possibility of testing 7492.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7200-7492.
* Crude oil gains driven by OPEC's continued projection of strong oil demand growth.
* OPEC stuck to its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024
* World oil demand will rise by 2.25 mbpd in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023

Natural gas

Natural gas surged significantly, up by 5.94% and settling at 229.9. This gain was driven by forecasts predicting warmer weather and higher demand in the coming weeks, as well as a notable drop in daily U.S. gas output. Despite the price increase, concerns loom due to the ongoing reduction in feedgas to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track for a substantial 2.9 bcfd drop, hitting a preliminary 12-week low of 99.8 bcfd. This decline marked the largest one-day drop since December. Meteorologists predict near-normal weather from Sept. 12-18, followed by hotter-than-usual conditions from Sept. 19 through at least Sept. 27. Seasonal cooling weather is expected to reduce U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 99.7 bcfd this week to 96.2 bcfd next week. Gas flows to major U.S. LNG export plants slightly eased in September, with an average of 12.2 bcfd, down from 12.3 bcfd in August. The market experienced short covering, with a significant -39.24% drop in open interest and a 12.9 rupee price increase. Support for Natural gas is expected at 221, with potential testing at 212. Resistance levels may emerge at 234.8, with the possibility of testing 239.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 212-239.6.
* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for warmer weather and higher demand
* Prices rose on a big drop in daily in U.S. output
* Capping those gains, however, was the ongoing reduction in feedgas to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas


Copper

Copper experienced a slight decline of -0.18%, settling at 732.1. This drop was influenced by a stronger dollar and increasing copper inventories, although positive indicators from China, the leading metals consumer, limited the losses. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses saw a rise of 1,125 tons, reaching a total of 135,650 tons, marking the highest levels since last October. On-warrant inventories also climbed to 135,350 tons. The strengthening dollar index, ahead of U.S. inflation data that could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, weighed on copper prices. China's property market offered support to copper, with developer Country Garden gaining approval from creditors to extend bond repayments. China's copper cathode output in August exceeded expectations, increasing by 6.8% month-on-month and 15.5% year-on-year, contributing to overall growth of 11.52% year-on-year from January to August. The market saw long liquidation, with a -2.15% decrease in open interest and a -1.3 rupee price drop. Support for Copper is anticipated at 729.6, with potential testing at 727.1. Resistance levels may emerge at 735.1, with the possibility of testing 738.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 727.1-738.1.
* Copper prices fell amid a stronger dollar and rising inventories
* Though positive signals from China kept losses in check.
* Stocks of copper in LME-registered warehouses edged higher with 1,125 tons of arrivals into New Orleans

Zinc

Zinc declined by -0.7%, settling at 220.7. This drop was influenced by the increasing discount on near-term zinc contracts compared to the three-month contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME), indicating ample immediate supply. The discount, or contango, for cash zinc against the three-month contract reached its deepest level since March 2021, signaling abundant immediate supply. Zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses rose significantly by the end of August, reaching their highest levels since February 2022. However, they have since decreased slightly. Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also showed a substantial increase this year. In August 2023, China's refined zinc output decreased by 4.46% compared to the previous month but increased by 13.78% year-on-year. The market witnessed long liquidation, with an -8.68% drop in open interest and a -1.55 rupee price decrease. Support for Zinc is expected at 219.3, with potential testing at 217.9. Resistance levels may emerge at 222.7, with the possibility of testing 224.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 217.9-224.7.
* Zinc dropped as LME zinc price discount at highest since March 2021
* Zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses by the end of August had jumped to 153,575 metric tons.
* Stocks of zinc SHFE have shown two-fold growth so far this year to 46,579 tons.


Aluminium

Aluminium saw a slight decline of -0.27%, settling at 201.1. The market was influenced by robust aluminium production in China and increasing domestic and imported supply. In August 2023, China's aluminium production reached 3.623 million mt, marking a 3.9% year-on-year increase. The daily output in August also rose, averaging around 116,900 mt. China's total aluminium production from January to August reached 27.299 million mt, showing a 2.8% year-on-year increase. The proportion of liquid aluminium increased in some regions but decreased in others in August, leading to a modest overall rise in the domestic liquid aluminium ratio, reaching around 72.8%, a 4.8% year-on-year increase. Aluminium supply increased, with domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots surpassing 500,000 mt. Inventory pressure in September may continue to rise. Aluminium operating capacity growth in China slowed in August, and aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports and LME-approved warehouses remained relatively steady. The market observed long liquidation, with a -4.37% decrease in open interest and a -0.55 rupee price decrease. Support for Aluminium is expected at 200.5, with potential testing at 199.9. Resistance levels may emerge at 202, with the possibility of testing 202.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.9-202.9.
* Aluminium dropped as China's aluminium production up 3.9% in August.
* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose 2.9% to 360,700 metric tons as of end-August
* Russian aluminium in LME system steady at 81% in August

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy saw a 0.56% increase, settling at 61400, driven by concerns over supply from vital U.S. growing regions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a slight dip in cotton crop conditions (31% in good to excellent condition) following Hurricane Idalia. In China, heavy rainfall in Xinjiang could affect cotton quality and quantity, contributing to a reduction in cotton production for 2023/24. The USDA's August WASDE report adjusted production and consumption figures, with a decrease of 2.7 million bales in production and a 500,000 bales increase in consumption for 2023/24. India's cotton sowing dropped by 3.65 lakh hectares due to poor monsoon conditions, mill closures, and low stock of old cotton crops, leading to tight local supplies. Fresh buying activity is observed in the market, with a 1.09% increase in open interest and a 340 rupees price increase. Support levels for Cottoncandy are projected at 61180, with potential testing at 60960. Resistance is expected at 61560, with potential price testing at 61720.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60960-61720.
* Cotton gains on some concerns over supply from key U.S. growing regions.
* However, heavy rainfall in China's Xinjiang region is expected to impact cotton quality and quantity.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29569.9 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a -3.07% decline due to profit booking following recent gains attributed to increased buying activity, particularly driven by rising festive demand. This dip comes against the backdrop of reduced turmeric supplies and grim production prospects. Notably, turmeric cultivation has decreased in Maharashtra, which is contributing to limited supply and price volatility. The upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall in Maharashtra and Telangana, which could potentially bolster turmeric crop growth. Adding to the price pressure is the subdued demand for turmeric at current levels, especially in the export market. Farmers' shifting focus has also led to expectations of a significant 20-25% decrease in turmeric sowing this year, particularly in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. This shift in agricultural focus further complicates price trends and supports higher prices. In the export market, turmeric fared better during April to June 2023, with a notable rise of 16.87%, reaching 57,775.30 tonnes compared to 49,435.38 tonnes during the same period in 2022. However, domestic factors continue to impact the market dynamics. From a technical perspective, the turmeric market is currently undergoing long liquidation, indicated by a significant -2.7% drop in open interest, settling at 14,800. Turmeric prices experienced a decline of -434 rupees. Support levels can be found at 13,408, with the potential to test 13,128. Resistance levels may be encountered at 14,116, and a breakthrough could lead to testing at 14,544.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13128-14544.
* Turmeric dropped due to profit booking after prices gained as buying activities has improved.
* Supplies are down whereas production prospects are also looking bleak
* The upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to Maharashtra and Telangana
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13598.3 Rupees dropped by -1.59 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices experienced a -1.49% decline driven by profit booking following recent gains attributed to a decrease in local market supplies. As the demand for jeera surges during festivals, stockists have shown increased interest, especially with millers holding dwindling stockpiles. However, the current price competitiveness of Indian jeera does not favor exporters, resulting in subdued export activity. Notably, China, a major buyer of Indian jeera, has reduced its purchases in recent months, impacting overall Indian jeera exports. Weather conditions in Gujarat, a key jeera-producing region, are expected to remain dry, leading to a rise in arrivals, which may limit upward price movements. Jeera exports during April-June 2023 showed a notable increase of 13.16%, reaching 53,399.65 tonnes compared to 47,190.98 tonnes during the same period in 2022. However, the month of June witnessed a significant decline in exports, with only 10,411.14 tonnes exported, compared to 25,903.63 tonnes in May 2023, reflecting a drop of 59.81%. In comparison to June 2022, when 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera were exported, June 2023 saw a drop of 51.78%. From a technical standpoint, the jeera market is currently witnessing fresh selling, with a notable 7.76% increase in open interest, settling at 4,125. Jeera prices experienced a decline of -930 rupees. Support levels can be found at 60,460, with the potential to test 59,330. Resistance levels may be encountered at 63,090, and a breakthrough could lead to testing at 64,590.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 59330-64590.
* Jeera dropped due to profit booking after prices gained due to a decrease in supplies.
* The increased demand for jeera during festivals has piqued the interest of stockists
* Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 61408.55 Rupees gained by 0.05 percent.