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Gold

In yesterday's trading session, gold exhibited a modest uptrend, closing 0.3% higher at 62476. The market's focus remained on interpreting the monetary policy landscape, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance. There's a prevailing sentiment that the Fed's tightening cycle has concluded, and attention is shifting towards potential interest rate cuts in the coming year. Traders are assigning a substantial 65% probability to the first cut occurring as early as March. Contrastingly, the Bank of Japan maintained its existing policy without indicating any imminent adjustments. Similarly, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England opted to keep interest rates unchanged in their final meeting of 2023, refraining from explicit comments on rate cuts. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams dismissed immediate discussions about rate cuts, emphasizing the need to be cautious and ready to tighten policy if inflation progress falters. From a technical perspective, the market indicates a fresh buying interest, evidenced by a 2.57% increase in open interest, settling at 15141. Current prices, up by 185 rupees, find support at 62140, and a breach below could test 61805. On the upside, resistance is anticipated around 62740, and a breakthrough could propel prices toward 63005.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 61805-63005.
* Gold prices steadied as investors look forward to key US inflation data due later this week
* Fed’s Williams said that we aren't really talking about rate cuts right now and it's premature to speculate about them.
* The flash PMI prints released showed that business activity in Germany deteriorated during December

Silver

In yesterday's trading session, silver experienced a 0.56% increase, closing at 74824. This movement was influenced by mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials and anticipation of crucial U.S. data releases. The consensus is that the Fed has concluded its tightening cycle and may reduce interest rates in 2024, with speculation on the first rate cut in March. While the ECB and BoE resisted monetary easing, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy without offering future guidance. New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pushed back against market expectations of imminent rate cuts, emphasizing that it's premature to speculate. Despite this, investors anticipate the Fed to roll back restrictive monetary policies earlier. However, global silver demand is projected to decrease by 10% in 2023, primarily due to a 22% decline in silver jewelry demand and a 47% decrease in silverware, with India playing a significant role in this decline. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, indicated by a 2.15% increase in open interest to 14005. Silver prices rose by 414 rupees, finding support at 74350. A breach below this level could test 73880, while resistance is anticipated at 75195, with a potential move above leading to a test of 75570.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73880-75570.
* Silver gains as investors digested mixed comments from Fed officials and awaited a slew of key U.S. data
* Fed has likely ended its tightening campaign and is expected to start reducing interest rates in 2024
* The ECB and BoE pushed against monetary easing talks but kept their rates at current level.

crude oil

Yesterday, crude oil prices increased by 0.49%, closing at 6167, fueled by concerns over supply disruption following an attack on a Norwegian-owned vessel and BP's decision to halt transit through the Red Sea. Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a projected decline in oil output from key shale-producing regions in January, marking the third consecutive monthly decrease. The EIA anticipates a drop in U.S. oil output to 9.692 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, with lower production in the Anadarko, Appalachia, and Eagle Ford basins contributing to the decline. However, the Permian basin is expected to achieve a record production of 5.986 million bpd, showing a continuous but slowing pace of growth. The EIA revised its 2023 and 2024 world oil demand growth forecasts, citing a decrease of 30,000 bpd and 60,000 bpd, respectively. In the inventory realm, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased, according to the EIA. From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing fresh buying, evident in a 0.35% rise in open interest to 13449, coupled with a 30-rupee increase in prices. Crude oil is currently supported at 6060, and a breach below this level could test 5953, while resistance is expected at 6239, with a potential move above leading to a test of 6311.
 

Trading Ideas:
* #REF!
* #REF!
* U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions is set to decline in January for the third consecutive month - EIA
* Output from the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico, is set to rise to a record for an eighth straight month.

Natural gas

Natural gas experienced a 3.13% decline, closing at 207.3, driven by increased output and anticipated lower demand during the Christmas holiday. The surge in gas production, averaging 108.4 bcfd, added pressure. However, the market found support from robust export expectations and LNG terminals consuming 15 billion cubic feet/day. Concerns over Red Sea trade disruptions led BP to halt shipments, prompting rerouting suggestions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresees record highs in natural gas production (103.67 bcfd in 2023, 104.91 bcfd in 2024) and consumption (89.46 bcfd in 2023, 89.62 bcfd in 2024). Current demand stands at 126.7 bcfd, expected to dip to 122.0 bcfd over the Christmas holiday. Natural gas prices dropped 3.13% to settle at 207.3 due to elevated output and anticipated lower demand during the Christmas weekThe U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record highs in natural gas production and consumption for 2023 and 2024. Dry gas production is expected to reach 103.67 bcfd in 2023 and 104.91 bcfd in 2024, while domestic gas consumption is projected to increase to 89.46 bcfd in 2023 and 89.62 bcfd in 2024. Current demand is at 126.7 bcfd, with an anticipated decline to 122.0 bcfd during the Christmas holiday. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation with a drop in open interest by -8.78% to settle at 19087. Prices are down -6.7 rupees, and natural gas is finding support at 200.3. A breach below this level could lead to a test of 193.3, while resistance is expected at 212.6, with a potential move above leading to prices testing 217.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 193.3-217.9.
* Natural gas fell due to elevated output and an anticipated decrease in demand during the upcoming week
* Gas production is reaching new highs this month, averaging 108.4 bcfd.
* U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, at 126.7 bcfd, up from last week's 125 bcfd, buoyed by the usual seasonal cooling at this time of year.


Copper

Copper prices exhibited a modest gain of 0.81% to settle at 726.65, driven by concerns over potential supply drops, particularly from the Cobre mine in Panama. The market was further influenced by mine closures and decreasing inventories in LME-approved warehouses, prompting increased buying activity. Anglo American's announcement of a 20% and 18% reduction in copper production guidance for the next two years added to supply worries. Despite a recent 8% rise in copper stocks in LME warehouses, the 21% drop in cancelled warrants indicates a likelihood of copper leaving the LME system. China's refined copper production in November surged by 12.3% year on year, reaching 1.14 million metric tons, with daily output averaging 38,000 tons. In the Chinese spot market, fees for processing copper concentrate plummeted by 25% in less than three months, settling below $70 per metric ton due to concerns about tight supply. The spot copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) in China hit $69.48 per ton. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market deficit of 55,000 metric tons in September, a significant increase from the 21,000 metric tons deficit in August. Technically, the market experienced short covering, with a 12.47% decrease in open interest, settling at 3123. Despite this, prices rose by 5.85 rupees. Copper is currently finding support at 720.4, and a breach below could test 714.2 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 731.1, with a potential move above leading to a test of 735.6.
Trading Ideas:
# Copper trading range for the day is 714.2-735.6.
# CRUDEOIL
# Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5953-6311.
# Crude oil gains after a Norwegian-owned vessel was attacked and BP said it had paused all transit through the Red Sea



Zinc exhibited a 0.94% increase, reaching 226.1, buoyed by positive Chinese industrial data and expectations of lower U.S. interest rates. Beijing and Shanghai easing home purchase restrictions also alleviated concerns about China's property sector. China's industrial output for November surpassed expectations, growing by 6.6% YoY, driven by increased copper imports. However, refined zinc output in November saw a 4.23% MoM dip, but a YoY uptick of 10.62%, falling slightly below expectations. The robust retail sector in China indicated a 10.1% YoY surge in sales for November, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth. This economic momentum contributed to the positive sentiment in the zinc market. Technically, the market experienced short covering as open interest dropped by -11.99% to 2452, coupled with a 2.1 rupees increase in prices. Support for Zinc is identified at 224.2, and a breach below may lead to a test of 222.2 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 227.4, with a potential move above signaling a test of 228.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.2-228.6.
* Zinc gains on improving Chinese industrial data and hopes for lower U.S. interest rates.
* China's industrial production advanced by 6.6% year-on-year in November 2023
* Also helping improve sentiment about the troubled property sector in China was news that Beijing and Shanghai relaxed home purchase restrictions China


Aluminium

Aluminium experienced a marginal decline of -0.37%, closing at 204.05, driven by profit booking following earlier gains. Supply challenges and strong demand supported prices. Notably, China's November aluminium imports surged by 34.2%, reaching 343,109 metric tons, as robust domestic demand and lower expected local supply fueled buying. This was in stark contrast to the United States and Europe, facing subdued orders due to high inflation and sluggish construction. The increase in imports was attributed to concerns about thin domestic inventories and production cuts in Yunnan province, China's fourth-largest producing region. Yunnan's authorities mandated output reductions during the dry season, impacting daily production by 1,185 metric tons. Despite November's lower imports compared to October's near two-year high, the January-November period saw a 28.3% rise in China's unwrought aluminium imports, totaling 2.74 million tons. In terms of production, China's November aluminium output stood at 3.488 million metric tons, marking a 4.6% YoY increase. Yunnan's production cuts were a contributing factor, resulting in a total YoY growth of 3.6%, reaching 37.946 million metric tons from January to November. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -20.15% to settle at 1973. Aluminium's current price decrease of -0.75 rupees is notable. Support is identified at 203.4, with a potential test of 202.6 if breached. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 205.3, and a breakthrough could lead to a price test of 206.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.6-206.4.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after gained as supply headwinds and demand support underpinned prices.
* China's Nov aluminium imports rise amid robust demand, concerns over supply
* Authorities in Yunnan, asked producers last month to cut output as the hydropower-dependent region entered its dry season.

Cotton

Cotton prices, represented as Cottoncandy, settled with a minor decline of -0.11% at 55880, driven by reports of pink bollworm infestation affecting cotton crops. The infestation has decreased from 30.62% in 2017-18 to 10.80% in 2022-23, impacting cotton production across the north, central, and south zones in India. Certified cotton stocks available for delivery against contracts notably dropped from 87,770 bales on December 1st to 6,325 bales on December 5th, according to ICE data. Global factors also influenced cotton prices, with Brazilian cotton shipments increasing by 12% in November but showing a 5.5% decline compared to the same period in 2022. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected that global cotton production would exceed consumption for the second consecutive year. The USDA's November report increased the anticipated U.S. production for 2023/24, leading to higher global ending stocks. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised down its cotton production estimate for the current season to 29.4 million bales due to pink bollworm damage in Haryana and reduced production in north Maharashtra. USDA's report also highlighted slightly lower cotton consumption but higher production and ending stocks globally. In Rajkot, a major spot market, cotton prices closed at 26251.1 Rupees, marking a marginal decline of -0.1%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with a 2.09% increase in open interest to settle at 195. Cottoncandy is currently finding support at 55600, and a breach below this level could test 55320. On the upside, resistance is expected at 56200, and a move above could lead to testing 56520.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55320-56520.
* Cotton dropped as there are reports infestation of pink bollworm in the cotton crop there has witnessed a decline.
* According to ICE data, certified cotton stocks, dropped to 6,325 bales from their highest level in over two years.
* ICAC projected that global cotton production will likely outpace consumption for the second year in a row.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26251.1 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a marginal decline of -0.36%, settling at 14378, attributed to slower buying activities as market participants anticipate the release of stocks ahead of the new crops in January 2024. The pressure on prices is further fueled by improved crop conditions due to favorable weather. Concerns arise in Maharashtra over the location of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana, impacting farmer sentiments. Crop conditions are reported to be satisfactory, with harvest readiness expected during January to March. Current buying levels and decreasing supplies are anticipated to maintain price stability, although downside risks exist due to potential yield losses from unfavorable weather.  Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding, particularly in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, result from farmers shifting priorities. Turmeric exports from April to October 2023 increased by 2.63%, totaling 102,162.94 tonnes compared to 99,585.88 tonnes in the same period of 2022. In October 2023, turmeric exports showed a gain of 11.58% compared to September 2023 but a drop of 9.30% compared to October 2022. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, turmeric prices closed at 13242.3 Rupees, marking a decline of -0.46%. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -1.35% drop in open interest to settle at 11675. Turmeric is currently finding support at 14240, with a potential test of 14100 on the downside. Resistance is expected at 14600, and a move above that level could lead to testing 14820.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14100-14820.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of release of stocks ahead of commencement of new crops
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13242.3 Rupees dropped by -0.46 percent.

Jeera

Jeera (cumin) prices recorded a notable decline of -1.68%, settling at 36970, primarily influenced by higher production prospects in key states like Gujarat and Rajasthan. The aggressive sowing activities for Jeera in Gujarat, coupled with sluggish exports, are expected to exert downward pressure on prices in the near term. Favorable weather conditions have facilitated smooth sowing, leading to a substantial increase in cumin cultivation, with Gujarat witnessing a remarkable 103% growth. Despite the positive production outlook, global demand for Indian jeera has slumped, with buyers preferring other origins like Syria and Turkey due to comparatively higher prices in India. Jeera exports from April to October 2023 dropped by 34.02%, totaling 76,367.90 tonnes compared to 115,748.90 tonnes during the same period in 2022. In October 2023, jeera exports saw a decline of 13.39% compared to September 2023 and a significant drop of 46.77% compared to October 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, Jeera prices closed at 38024.55 Rupees, marking a marginal gain of 0.24%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with a 3.08% increase in open interest to settle at 3213. Jeera is currently finding support at 36130, and a breach below this level could test 35290. On the upside, resistance is expected at 37780, and a move above that level could lead to testing 38590.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 35290-38590.
* Jeera dropped due to higher production prospects in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* An increase in sowing of about 13 percent has been recorded in the area of cumin in Rajasthan.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 38024.55 Rupees gained by 0.24 percent.