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Gold

Gold prices slipped by 0.56% to settle at 1,53,948 as investors reacted to ongoing developments in US-Iran peace talks. Reports of progress toward extending the ceasefire and continued negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz reduced immediate safe-haven demand. However, downside remained limited as the dollar hovered near six-week lows and the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance amid persistent inflation concerns. On the macro front, inflation in the U.S. surged to its highest level in nearly four years, driven by elevated energy prices and tariff pass-through effects. At the same time, central bank demand continues to provide underlying support. China extended its gold purchases for the 17th consecutive month, adding 160,000 ounces in March, reflecting sustained reserve diversification despite recent price volatility. Globally, central banks remained net buyers, highlighting strong institutional demand. Physical demand trends were mixed. In India, buying interest improved slightly ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, though high prices capped enthusiasm. In contrast, Chinese retail demand softened, reflected in lower premiums. Meanwhile, India’s gems and jewellery exports declined, signaling weak external demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure with rising open interest. Gold has immediate support at 1,53,315, with further downside toward 1,52,690. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,54,815, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1,55,690.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152690-155690.

* Gold dropped as investors weighed developments in US-Iran peace talks aimed at ending Middle East hostilities.

* Markets have tempered expectations for tighter monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious stance as it assesses inflation risks.

* India's gems and jewellery exports in the 2025/26 fiscal year dipped 3.3% from a year earlier to their lowest level in five years.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.4% to settle at 2,51,742, as markets balanced easing geopolitical tensions with underlying economic and supply concerns. Progress in US-Iran peace talks, particularly around extending the ceasefire, reduced some safe-haven demand. However, uncertainty remains after the US signaled plans to deploy additional troops in the region. A weaker dollar, hovering near six-week lows, offered some support, while the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance has eased fears of aggressive rate hikes. Despite these supportive factors, silver has corrected 15% since the Iran conflict began, largely due to the impact of higher interest rates on non-yielding assets. On the supply side, concerns remain significant. Industry estimates indicate a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with nearly 762 million ounces drawn down from global inventories since 2021. This persistent deficit is raising the risk of a potential liquidity squeeze. At the same time, industrial demand is expected to soften slightly, with projections pointing to a 3% decline to around 640 million ounces in 2026. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.54%. Silver has immediate support at 2,48,435, and a break below this level could drag prices toward 2,45,130. On the upside, resistance is placed at 2,55,330, with a potential move toward 2,58,920 if this level is breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 245130-258920.

* Silver dropped as investors weighed progress in US-Iran peace talks against lingering economic and supply challenges.

* Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to inflation has eased expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.

* Silver Institute and Metals Focus warned of a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices inched higher by 0.43% to settle at 8,608, as persistent supply concerns outweighed signs of easing geopolitical tensions. While comments from Donald Trump hinted at a possible end to the Iran conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep markets on edge. Supply data paints a tight picture. Saudi Arabia’s exports dropped sharply in March, with similar declines seen across Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, reflecting the impact of restricted shipping routes. This has prompted firms like UBS to raise their oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to remain elevated through 2026. On the demand side, OPEC has trimmed its second-quarter demand outlook slightly, citing temporary weakness due to geopolitical disruptions, though it expects recovery in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data offered support, with crude stocks unexpectedly declining alongside sharp draws in gasoline and distillates, indicating resilient consumption despite softer refinery activity. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling by 18.38% even as prices rise. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,452, with a break below potentially testing 8,296. On the upside, resistance is seen at 8,745, and a move above this level could push prices toward 8,882.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8296-8882.

* Crude oil gains amid ongoing worries about supply disruptions

* OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 bpd.

* Saudi Arabia’s oil supply to the market fell to 7,763 thousand barrels per day in March 2026, the lowest since June 2020

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged up by 0.53% to settle at 244.6, supported by a recent dip in daily output and slightly stronger near-term demand expectations. While overall production in the U.S. remains near record highs, a short-term decline of around 4.6 bcfd over the past few days—mainly from Texas and Louisiana—has lent some support to prices. Fundamentally, the market continues to be well-supplied. Output in the Lower 48 states is averaging around 110.7 bcfd in April, close to peak levels seen late last year. At the same time, storage levels are comfortable, with inventories rising by 50 bcf last week to 1.91 trillion cubic feet, keeping stocks above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. Weather forecasts pointing to warmer-than-normal conditions through April are also limiting both heating and cooling demand, which is expected to keep overall consumption slightly subdued in the near term. Looking ahead, the EIA projects production to rise further in 2026, even as demand is expected to ease slightly before recovering later. LNG exports, however, are set to grow steadily, offering longer-term support. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 7.26%. Prices have immediate support at 242.2, with further downside toward 239.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 246.8, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 249.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 239.8-249.

* Natural gas edged up on a drop in output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand.

* On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 4.6 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary 11-week low of 106.6 bcfd

* Average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 101.0 bcfd this week to 100.3 bcfd next week.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher by 0.31% to settle at 1,273, supported mainly by concerns over supply disruptions. Shortages of sulphur—an essential input in metal processing—due to Middle East tensions have added to the bullish tone. Sentiment also improved on expectations of renewed talks between the U.S. and Iran, with Donald Trump indicating possible negotiations could resume soon. On the demand side, China continues to provide support. The sharp rise in the Yangshan copper premium, now up 270% since late January, signals strong import appetite. Additionally, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped over 11%, tightening near-term supply. However, global inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange and Comex have surged above 900,000 tonnes, indicating ample availability in the broader market. Production trends remain mixed. Chile’s output declined, including lower production at major mines like Escondida, while some operations reported gains. Meanwhile, expectations of a larger global surplus in 2026 and weaker Chinese import data are capping upside potential. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 3.08%. Copper has immediate support at 1,260.6, with further downside toward 1,248.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,288, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 1,303.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1248.2-1303.

* Copper gained supported by worries about shortages of sulphur used to process metals.

* Support also seen as the prospect of another round of talks between the United States and Iran to end the war boosted sentiment./

* Citi says they mark-to-market 0–3-month copper price forecast to $13k/t

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher by 0.92% to settle at 338.25, supported by improving sentiment around easing US-Iran tensions and signs of tighter near-term supply. Although recent talks between the two nations ended without a breakthrough, continued dialogue has helped stabilize market confidence. Strength in China’s factory activity also lifted demand expectations, reinforcing the positive tone across base metals. On the supply side, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 1.7% over the past week, indicating tighter availability. Ongoing mine closures and disruptions have further supported prices in the short term. However, the broader outlook remains mixed. The restart of mines such as Tara Mine and ramp-up at projects like Kipushi Project are expected to keep the market in a slight surplus this year. Data also shows global zinc shifted into a surplus in January, while production trends from key regions like Peru remain volatile. Demand remains steady, with projections pointing to around 2% annual growth, though concerns over the global economic impact of geopolitical tensions continue to cap upside. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest slightly lower by 0.82%. Zinc has immediate support at 335.9, with further downside toward 333.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at 339.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 341.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 333.6-341.4.

* Zinc gains as hopes of eased US-Iran tension provided support to the prices.

* Prices also gained supported by improving industrial activity and signs of short-term supply tightness.

* China's central bank pledged to maintain appropriately loose monetary policy.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices moved higher by 0.79% to settle at 369.8, supported by ongoing global supply concerns, particularly stemming from disruptions in the Middle East. The region, which previously accounted for a significant share of global supply, continues to face production challenges following recent geopolitical tensions, tightening availability outside China. Supply-side pressures remain the key driver. JPMorgan Chase expects a substantial global deficit of around 1.9 million tonnes in 2026, largely due to disruptions in Middle East output. The situation has been further aggravated by outages such as the shutdown at Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter, which could take up to a year to fully restore. Physical market tightness is also reflected in elevated LME premiums, now at multi-year highs. At the same time, inventories in China have risen to near six-year highs, indicating cautious buying amid price volatility. Globally, production trends are mixed, with modest growth in output, particularly in China, while some international smelters face operational or energy-related challenges. Demand remains steady, though higher prices have prompted buyers to limit purchases to immediate requirements. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 4.96%. Aluminium has immediate support at 366.8, with further downside toward 363.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at 371.7, and a move above this level could push prices toward 373.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 363.6-373.4.

* Aluminium gains amid persistent global aluminium supply-side challenges driven by Middle East disruptions and tighter availability.

* Commerzbank sees aluminium prices temporarily rising to almost $4,000 per ton if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until end of May.

* JP Morgan expects aluminium prices to average about $3,500 a metric ton over the second half of 2026.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged slightly higher by 0.04% to settle at 15,806, supported by lower-than-usual arrivals in key mandis. Farmers and stockists are holding back supplies in anticipation of better prices, which is keeping market sentiment firm. Crop conditions, however, remain mixed. Unseasonal rains and disease pressure in major producing states like Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh have impacted yields, with localized losses reported in several pockets. Production estimates indicate a moderate increase. While fresh output is projected at around 11.41 lakh tonnes, dried turmeric production is expected to rise to nearly 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season. Higher acreage, estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares (up 4% YoY), is helping offset yield losses. At the same time, lower carry-forward stocks and reduced farmer holdings are tightening near-term availability. Export demand remains stable overall despite some monthly fluctuations, while imports have declined significantly, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 9.1%. Prices are holding above key support at 15,496, with deeper support at 15,184. On the upside, resistance is seen at 16,134, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 16,460.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15184-16460.

* Turmeric gained amid lower-than-normal arrivals of the new crop in major physical markets.

* Farmers and stockists are reportedly holding back their produce, anticipating even higher prices in the coming weeks.

* Unseasonal rains and disease pressure in key growing regions like Maharashtra and Telangana during the late growth stages have negatively impacted yields.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15796.25 Rupees dropped by -2.6 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged slightly higher by 0.05% to settle at 21,845, even as new crop arrivals have started entering the market. However, the upside remains capped due to comfortable supplies and subdued export demand, particularly with weak buying interest from China. Farmers are actively offloading stocks to take advantage of current price levels, which is adding to near-term supply pressure. On the production front, output is expected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this season. Gujarat, the key producing state, is likely to see a sharp 27% drop in production due to lower acreage and weaker yields, with sowing already down over 14% year-on-year. In contrast, Rajasthan is expected to offset some of this decline with a 15% increase in output, supported by better yields and slightly higher acreage. Weather risks, including heatwaves and pest attacks like aphids, continue to pose a threat to crop quality and final yields. Export performance remains a concern, with shipments sharply lower both on a monthly and cumulative basis, reflecting weak global demand. Despite tight global supplies due to disruptions in countries like Syria and Turkey, India’s export momentum remains sluggish. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 13.18%. Jeera has immediate support at 21,740, with further downside possible toward 21,630. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,020, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 22,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21630-22190.

* Jeera settled flat as increasing supplies of fresh cumin crops in Unjha and Rajasthan mandis are weighing down prices.

* Global buying interest, particularly from China, remains weak, leading to a domestic stock build-up.

* Farmers are rushing to liquidate stocks in local markets to capitalize on current rates.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21726.85 Rupees gained by 0.16 percent.

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