Jeera trading range for the day is 19630-20310 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices edged higher by 0.28% to settle at Rs149,753, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although gains remained limited due to easing oil prices. The fragile situation around the Strait of Hormuz, with continued conflict between the United States and Iran, is sustaining safe haven demand. However, cautious sentiment ahead of key US employment data, including job openings, ADP employment, and nonfarm payrolls, is restricting strong upside momentum as investors assess the future policy stance of the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, global gold demand remains firm. According to the World Gold Council, total demand rose 2% year on year to 1,230.9 metric tons in the first quarter of 2026. Strong investment demand, particularly for bars and coins, surged by 42%, while central bank purchases increased by 3%, offsetting a sharp 23% decline in jewellery demand. China continues to lead demand growth, with premiums rising to $16 to $20 per ounce due to pre holiday stockpiling. In contrast, Indian demand remains subdued, with dealers offering discounts amid high price volatility and a weaker domestic currency. On the supply and policy front, gold holdings in London vaults increased by 1.4% to 9,339 tons, reflecting stable inventories. Additionally, China’s move to simplify gold import procedures is expected to enhance trade efficiency and support liquidity in the market. The outlook remains supported by expectations of steady central bank buying and rising investment demand throughout the year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.67% to 9,814 lots while prices gained Rs414. Immediate support is seen at Rs149,170, with further downside toward Rs148,595. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs150,380, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs151,015.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 148595-151015.
* Gold rebounded as oil prices eased, but persistent Middle East tensions and inflation concerns kept gains in check.
* Ceasefire in Middle East tested amid renewed U.S.-Iran attacks
* The fragile ceasefire in the region appeared to be fraying once more as the U.S. and Iran launched attacks
Silver
Silver prices edged higher by 0.17% to settle at Rs244,316, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions and firm physical demand, although gains remained modest amid uncertainty over interest rate outlook. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, along with the fragile ceasefire situation in the Persian Gulf, continue to elevate inflation concerns and sustain expectations of tighter monetary policy. This has limited upside momentum in silver, as higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. From a macroeconomic perspective, mixed US data added to market uncertainty. Building permits declined sharply by 11.4% in March, signaling weakness in the housing sector, while the trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion, reflecting stronger import demand. At the same time, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike have increased significantly, with probabilities rising to around 35%, further capping bullish sentiment in precious metals. On the demand side, China remained a key driver, with silver imports surging to a record 836 metric tons in March, nearly three times the historical average. Strong retail investment demand, driven by high gold prices, and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic sector ahead of policy changes have supported prices. Elevated domestic premiums in China encouraged global arbitrage flows, tightening international supply. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, indicating stable inventory levels. Technically, the market is under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 5.03% to 8,131 lots while prices gained Rs421. Immediate support is seen at Rs242,370, with further downside toward Rs240,415. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs246,815, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs249,305.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 240415-249305.
* Silver climbed as investors monitored escalating Middle East tensions and their potential to stoke inflation.
* Inflation fears continue to fuel bets for more hawkish central banks and undermine the bullion.
* US building permits fell 11.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.363 million in March 2026.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices declined sharply by 3.57% to settle at Rs9,698, as markets balanced escalating geopolitical risks against the possibility that recent tensions may be part of ongoing negotiations. Renewed clashes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on vessels and defensive responses, initially heightened supply disruption concerns. However, the absence of a full-scale escalation and continued efforts to maintain shipping routes led to profit booking and price correction. Reports of missile interceptions by the UAE and disruptions at the Fujairah terminal kept volatility elevated, while uncertainty over a lasting resolution continues to influence sentiment. On the supply side, OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June, slightly lower than the previous month’s hike, reflecting a cautious approach amid changing group dynamics after the exit of the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, US inventory data provided strong underlying support. Crude stocks fell by 6.233 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate inventories also recorded larger-than-expected drawdowns. Refinery activity improved, and a sharp drop in net crude imports further tightened domestic supply conditions. Demand outlook, however, remains mixed. OPEC revised down its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day due to temporary weakness linked to geopolitical uncertainties. Despite this, full-year demand growth projections remain unchanged, with expectations of recovery in the second half. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 13.4% to 14,371 lots while prices dropped Rs359. Immediate support is seen at Rs9,538, with further downside toward Rs9,378. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs9,962, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs10,226.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9378-10226.
* Crude oil slipped as investors weighed the risk of a broader conflict against the possibility that the escalation is part of ongoing negotiations.
* The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, casting doubt on the durability of a four-week ceasefire.
* OPEC+ has agreed an increase in oil output of 188,000 barrels per day, the cartel said
Natural gas
Natural gas prices declined by 2.73% to settle at Rs267, pressured by expectations of weaker near-term demand and reduced LNG export flows. Forecasts indicate lower consumption over the next two weeks as seasonal transition conditions prevail, with cooling demand gradually overtaking heating demand. Additionally, gas flows to LNG export terminals have declined to 17.3 bcfd so far in May from a record 18.8 bcfd in April, reflecting the impact of routine spring maintenance, which has weighed on overall demand sentiment. On the supply side, production trends remain relatively stable but slightly lower. Output in the US Lower 48 states averaged 109.1 bcfd in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and below the peak of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. The decline is partly attributed to lower spot prices, prompting major producers to curtail output temporarily in anticipation of improved pricing later in the year. Despite this, supply remains adequate, with total inventories rising to 2.142 trillion cubic feet, which is 5.7% above last year and 7.7% above the five year seasonal average. The latest weekly storage injection of 79 bcf was broadly in line with expectations but lower than both last year and the recent weekly build. Looking ahead, the Energy Information Administration projects production to rise to record levels in 2026, while domestic demand is expected to decline slightly before recovering in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase steadily, providing long-term support to the market. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 6.81% to 22,060 lots while prices declined Rs7.5. Immediate support is seen at Rs263.3, with further downside toward Rs259.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs272.2, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs277.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.7-277.5.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* U.S. gas output dips as producers like EQT cut production amid low spot prices
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May
Copper
Copper prices gained 0.85% to settle at Rs1,287.55, supported by supply-side concerns linked to geopolitical tensions and tightening near-term inventories. Fears of sulphuric acid shortages, potentially arising from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns about refined copper production, lending support to prices. Additionally, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than halved since March highs and declined a further 4.6% last week, reflecting improved domestic demand and restocking activity ahead of the Labor Day holiday in China. However, the broader inventory picture remains mixed. While Chinese stocks are tightening, inventories on the London Metal Exchange have more than doubled since early January, and Comex stocks have surged significantly over the past year, indicating comfortable supply availability outside China. On the production front, global output trends remain uneven. Chile reported a 9% year-on-year decline in March production, with similar weakness seen at major mines such as Escondida and Codelco. In contrast, Peru posted modest production growth, and some operations like Collahuasi reported strong output increases. Fundamentally, the global copper market is expected to remain in surplus. The International Copper Study Group reported a surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February and projects a surplus of 96,000 tons in 2026, expanding further in 2027. Demand growth forecasts have been revised lower, particularly in developed regions, while China continues to lead consumption growth despite weaker import data. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 2.96% to 11,998 lots while prices gained Rs10.8. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,278.4, with further downside toward Rs1,269.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,293.4, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,299.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1269.2-1299.2.
* Copper gains due to fears that production will be cut by a shortage of sulphuric acid.
* Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have more than halved from a peak in March.
* LME copper stocks have more than doubled since early January and in Comex increased around 25-fold over the last year.
Zinc
Zinc prices advanced by 0.93% to settle at Rs345.65, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and a firmer physical market structure. Declining inventories on the London Metal Exchange and a narrowing cash to three-month contango indicate reduced availability in the spot market. Additionally, falling treatment charges for zinc concentrate highlight constraints in raw material supply, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange also declined, while port inventories of zinc concentrate dropped sharply, confirming a tight feedstock environment. However, upside potential remains limited due to expectations of improving supply. Swedish miner Boliden indicated that production at its Garpenberg mine will resume in the second quarter, while additional supply is expected from the restart of the Tara mine and the ramp-up of the Kipushi project. Production trends remain mixed globally, with Peru showing year-on-year growth despite monthly declines. On the demand side, improving industrial activity in China has supported consumption, although ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty for global economic growth. From a broader perspective, the global zinc market has shifted into a surplus of 9,200 metric tons, according to industry data, and is expected to remain in slight surplus through 2026 due to increased mine supply and concentrate destocking. Demand is projected to grow steadily at around 2% annually, while China is expected to play a key role in balancing global supply dynamics. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 5.64% to 2,075 lots while prices gained Rs3.2. Immediate support is seen at Rs343.4, with further downside toward Rs341. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs347.3, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs348.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 341-348.8.
* Zinc gains driven by tightening near-term supply conditions.
* Falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure.
* Swedish miner Boliden said production at its Garpenberg zinc mine will be resumed in the second quarter.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices gained 0.94% to settle at Rs374.5, supported by persistent supply concerns linked to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran has raised fears of disruptions in shipments from the Gulf region, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Additional support came after signals that restrictions on Iranian commercial vessels may continue for an extended period, reinforcing expectations of tight global supply. Demand-side fundamentals also remained supportive, with strong manufacturing data from China boosting sentiment. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in April, marking the fastest expansion since December 2020, driven by robust growth in new orders and output. Physical market indicators further highlighted tightening conditions, as aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports declined by 7.4%, while premiums for shipments surged to the highest level in 11 years. Increased imports by China, up 6.9% year-on-year in March, also reflect firm demand despite elevated prices. On the supply front, global production trends remain mixed. While primary aluminium output increased 0.9% year-on-year in March, the slight decline in daily production rates signals emerging constraints. Expectations of a significant supply deficit in 2026, driven by disruptions in Middle East production, continue to support bullish outlooks, with forecasts pointing toward higher price levels in the coming quarters. Technically, the market is under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 5.81% to 3,261 lots while prices gained Rs3.5. Immediate support is seen at Rs371, with further downside toward Rs367.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs376.7, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs378.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 367.4-378.8.
* Aluminium gains on fears of supply shortages as the standoff between the U.S. and Iran continued
* China General Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2 in April 2026 from 50.8 in March, above the expected 51.
* BOFA brought forward its $4,000 per metric ton aluminium price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026 from the second quarter of 2027.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices rallied by 1.93% to settle at Rs16,296, supported by tight arrivals and quality concerns across key producing regions in Maharashtra and Telangana. Lower-than-normal inflows during the peak season, along with moisture-related issues such as rhizome rot, have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” export-quality turmeric, strengthening market sentiment. Additionally, firm demand for high-grade “Salem Fali” variety, which is trading near Rs20,000 per quintal, has further supported prices. However, upside momentum remains capped due to improving arrivals in major mandis like Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli, creating a temporary supply glut. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate funds for the upcoming Kharif season, increasing near-term supply pressure. Late-harvested, high-moisture produce is also being sold at discounted rates, particularly for average-quality lots. Profit booking by stockists and traders who accumulated inventory at lower levels has further added to selling pressure. Fundamentally, supply remains relatively tight, with carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season. Export demand remains stable, with shipments rising marginally by 1% during Apr–Feb 2026, while imports declined sharply by 40%, indicating tightening domestic availability. Additional support is coming from demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the European Union and continued buying interest from Bangladesh. Lower production estimates at 1.14 million tonnes and concerns over a below-normal monsoon are also contributing to a bullish longer-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 13.22% to 13,360 lots while prices gained Rs308. Immediate support is seen at Rs15,916, with further downside toward Rs15,536. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs16,638, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs16,980.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15536-16980.
* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season
* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.
* Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15664.8 Rupees gained by 0.37 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices edged lower by 0.3% to settle at Rs19,965, weighed down by increased arrivals from key Rajasthan mandis. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India enabled faster harvesting, resulting in a sudden supply spike rather than a staggered flow. Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, maintaining steady selling pressure. Additionally, arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at elevated levels of around 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that continues to cap price upside. However, downside remains limited due to emerging supply-side concerns. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” produce. Unseasonal rains have also delayed drying and processing, creating temporary supply disruptions. Moreover, the availability of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stock is lower compared to last year, supporting premium pricing for better quality material. Production estimates indicate a tighter overall supply scenario. Domestic output is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat production declining due to lower acreage and yield losses caused by blight disease. On the global front, lower production estimates in China due to adverse weather, along with steady output from other producing countries, are influencing sentiment. Export data remains weak on a year-on-year basis, though a strong month-on-month recovery in February indicates improving demand, particularly with expectations of increased Chinese buying. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 5.73% to 7,257 lots while prices fell Rs60. Immediate support is seen at Rs19,800, with further downside toward Rs19,630. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,140, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs20,310.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19630-20310.
* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased.
* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.
* Farmers are actively offloading stocks this week to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20273.7 Rupees dropped by -0.18 percent.
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