Weekly Commodity Insights By Axis Securities Ltd
The Week That Was
* COMEX Gold began 2025 on a positive note, supported by safe-haven buying amid heightened geopolitical tensions. However, gains were capped by a robust U.S. Dollar Index, which surged to a multi-year high of 109 last week. The yellow metal ended the week with a modest gain of 0.6%, as the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20 has introduced significant market uncertainty. His proposed tariffs and protectionist policies are widely anticipated to be inflationary and could potentially spark trade disputes. In the coming week, market participants will closely monitor the FOMC meeting and U.S.. Non-Farm Payroll data, which are likely to heighten volatility in gold prices
* COMEX Silver rebounded last week, snapping a three-week losing streak with a gain of over 0.8%. The recovery was in line with gold’s rise, as persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties bolstered demand for safe-haven assets. Reports suggesting U.S. President Joe Biden had been briefed on contingency plans for potential strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities added to the geopolitical tension just weeks before Trump’s inauguration. However, a strong U.S. dollar prompted profit-taking on Friday, underscoring the inverse correlation between silver and the greenback.
* NYMEX Crude Oil extended its rally for the second consecutive week, posting a gain of over 4% - the best weekly performance since December 9, 2024. Prices settled at a two-month high, supported by cold weather across Europe and the U.S., as well as optimism surrounding potential economic stimulus measures in China. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further underpinned prices. Crude is expected to maintain a positive bias, provided the $70 level holds as a critical support zone.
* COMEX Copper advanced by over 1% last week, bolstered by stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. and optimism around potential stimulus measures in China. Looking ahead, traders will shift their focus to the upcoming ISM Services PMI data from both China and the U.S., which could influence copper's trend in the weeks to come.
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