USDINR Nov Fut consolidated in the upper end range, and the pair retested short-term resistance at 83.40 - HDFC Securities
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Market Roundup
Despite a decline in the dollar index, the Indian rupee fell to a fresh closing low of 83.35 against the US dollar on Monday. Declined in the local unit due to banks buying dollars for importers, including oil companies. The dollar index closed lower by 0.28% at 103.31 on Monday.
The dollar had a decline due to market expectations that the US interest rate cycle may have reached its peak, as they keenly monitored any indications of the US Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy.
Brent crude futures increased by 1.90% to $81.95 per barrel following the expectation that the world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is planning to continue its oil production cuts into the upcoming year.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said UK interest rates may have to rise again if inflation persists and that food and energy costs represent a major upside risk.
India will auction 300 billion rupees of bonds through an auction on Nov. 24, according to a statement from the department of economic affairs.
The market is eagerly awaiting the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting scheduled for Wednesday. However, the market believes that US policymakers might be done with rate hikes after the recent economic data.
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly negative amid mixed cues. Implied opening from forwards suggests the spot may be trading around the 83.42 range.
USDINR
Technical Observations:
USDINR Nov Fut consolidated in the upper end range, and the pair retested short-term resistance at 83.40.
The pair is settled above the shortterm moving average of 21 days.
Momentum Oscillator, RSI of 14 days period turned positive and is placed above 50 on the daily chart.
MACD has been placed below a zero line and stayed below moving average.
Long unwinding has been seen as price along with open interest fell. Short Term Trend: Neutral to positive
Expected Trading Range: 83.20 to 83.60
Intraday Recommendation: Buy USDINR Nov. Fut. above 83.42 SL 83.29 Target 83.65
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