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USD/INR

Market Commentary:

* The Dollar recovered from five-week lows on statements from regional Fed members that rates need to stay higher for longer. The USD/INR opened on a soft note but strong demand from oil companies offered a bid that saw it close near the day’s highs.

* Yesterday’s rebound originated from the 21-day EMA, with upside hurdles now coming into play at 83.60/70. Meanwhile, support lies in the 83.20 – 83.44 range.

* Daily stochastics remain bullish near overbought at 90, but the fast line is looking to rollover in what will be a bearish switch, should it happen.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 26.4% probability that the pair will touch 83.62 while there is a 32.9% chance that it will hit 83.36

EUR/INR

Market Commentary:

* The EURUSD rallied to nearly 1.0900 yesterday, leaving behind the down-trending channel that has been in force since the start of the year. That led to a spurt in the EUR/INR too, but this move could not be sustained as the pair faced resistance from the swing high seen in late March.

* For the day, the pair is expected to find support near 90.50 followed by 90.00, while near-term resistance can be seen around 90.90. Note that prices are trading above all the short-term EMAs.

* Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.0850 and 1.0875.

* Daily stochastics are bullish, but both the oscillator lines are significantly overbought.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 14.3% chance that the pair will touch 91.24 today while there is a 15.8% probability that it will reach 90.31.

GBP/INR

Market Commentary:

* After a very strong performance this week, the GBPUSD faced resistance around 1.2700. In the Asian trading session, the INR cross opened near 106.00 and then moved lower to settle at 105.78.

* Technically, the 105.05 – 105.40 area is expected to serve as support. Immediate resistance lies near 106.10 followed by 106.50. Pattern-wise, the breakout from the head-and-shoulders bottom is on track to send the pair toward its measured objective of 107.50; the formation will be invalidated if the market drops below 104.13, where the right shoulder low lies.

* Notable strikes set to expire today lie at 1.2640, 1.2650 and 1.2745.

* The stochastics oscillator remains bullish with the signal from earlier this week and has enough upside room to become overbought.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 20.2% probability that the pair will touch 106.23, while there is a 20.6% probability that it will hit 105.34.

JPY/INR

Market Commentary:

* Yesterday’s fall in the Yen was courtesy Japan’s economic growth figure contracting at a larger than expected pace, which saw the currency drop from a high of 153.60 to nearly 156. Meanwhile, the yen couldn’t keep the gains from the initial spike against the INR, resulting in the formation of a bearish shooting star that risks a continuation of the longer-term decline.

* Immediate resistance for the pair lies around 0.5425 followed by 0.5450 while support lies between 0.5350 and 0.5380.

* Notable strikes set to expire today are at 155.50, 156.00, 156.35, 156.60

* The daily stochastics oscillator remains barely bullish for now but getting past the shooting star’s high at 0.5436 will be pivotal for the JPY to continue its downside reversal against the rupee.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 13.8% probability that the pair will hit 0.5417 while there is a 27.4% probability that the pair will reach 0.5341.

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