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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee depreciated on Thursday amid stronger dollar and higher crude oil prices. The dollar index hit the highest level in six-months on better than expected US economic number. Also weakness in EUR after the ECB signalled it would pause its rate hike cycle has supported the dollar index to rise above the 105 mark

• USDINR is expected to rise towards the higher end of the consolidation range 82.80-83.20 amid firm dollar. However, the gains could be restricted amid hopes of Fed pause in its next policy. Now the , investors will eye on today’s key US economic number, which could provide more clues to the future rate path. USDINR is expected to remain in the band of 82.80-83.20

Euro and Pound Outlook 

* Euro fell below the 1.07 mark and hit the lowest level in last 5-months after ECB signalled it would pause its rate hike cycle. ECB also cut its 2024 Euro zone GDP forecast. The pair is expected to weaken further towards 1.06 amid strong dollar and forecast of weaker economic numbers in the region. On the upside 1.07 would act as key resistance for EURUSD. EURINR is likely to face the hurdle near 89.00 and weaken towards 88.40.

* The pound lost more than 0.50% on Thursday amid strong dollar and disappointing housing data. The pair is expected to weaken further towards 1.2350, as long as it trades under the 1.25. GBPINR is expected to weaken further towards 102.80, as long as it trades under 103.80.

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