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The U.S. rice outlook for 2024/25 shows increased supplies as higher beginning stocks and imports offset lower production due to reduced yields, particularly in Texas. The average rice yield is down to 7,588 pounds per acre. Domestic use is slightly reduced but remains at a record level, while ending stocks are projected to rise by 2 million cwt to 45.6 million cwt. Globally, rice production and consumption are expected to increase, driven by higher yields in India, thanks to favorable monsoon rainfall. However, global rice trade and stocks are forecast to decline slightly, with reductions in Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Senegal. The U.S. farm price remains unchanged at $15.60 per cwt.

Key Highlights

* U.S. rice supplies increase with higher beginning stocks and imports.

* Domestic rice use is reduced, but still projected at record levels.

* All rice yield forecast lowered, with Texas yields revised down.

* Global rice consumption rises with higher production in India.

* Ending stocks rise globally, with declines seen in Bangladesh, Cambodia.

The 2024/25 U.S. rice outlook shows a slight increase in supplies as higher beginning stocks and imports offset a decrease in production. Beginning stocks are up by 1.1 million cwt to 39.4 million cwt, while the production forecast is lowered to 219.7 million cwt due to a drop in yields, particularly in Texas. However, Missouri saw an increase in rice yields. The average all-rice yield is now estimated at 7,588 pounds per acre, down by 35 pounds from last month’s projections. Imports are also projected to rise by 1 million cwt, driven by growing consumption of Asian aromatic rice varieties.

Price performance remains stable, with the season-average farm price for all rice classes projected at $15.60 per cwt, unchanged from previous forecasts. Total domestic use is reduced slightly to 159.0 million cwt, though it still marks a record level. Exports remain unchanged, while 2024/25 U.S. rice ending stocks are projected to rise by 2 million cwt to 45.6 million cwt.

Globally, rice supplies and consumption are expected to increase, led by higher production in India due to favorable monsoon rainfall. India’s rice production forecast is up 1.0 million tons to a record 139.0 million tons. However, global rice trade and stocks are projected to decrease slightly, with reductions seen in countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Senegal.

Finally

U.S. rice supplies are stable with increased stocks, and global production remains strong despite slight decreases in key regions.

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