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Gold

Gold settled marginally higher by 0.03% at Rs 152,818, as stronger US employment data reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain elevated, while investors awaited the upcoming PPI and CPI reports for further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. US job growth accelerated sharply in August, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, keeping the possibility of a rate increase this month on the table. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and warned of trade restrictions against countries running deficits with the United States. Safe-haven demand remained supported by Middle East tensions, with Iran warning of a painful response to any further attack amid the impact of US sanctions. Central-bank buying continued to provide a fundamental cushion, as the People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to 22 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 76.73 million fine troy ounces from 76.08 million at end-July. China’s gold reserves were valued at $350.08 billion at end-August, compared with $306.35 billion a month earlier. Physical demand in India improved as lower prices encouraged buying, narrowing domestic discounts to $54 an ounce from $135 previously, although elevated import duties of 15% plus 3% sales levies continued to constrain demand. Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $3.5-$9 an ounce, indicating firmer investment interest despite weaker jewellery consumption. London vault holdings rose 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at $1.2 trillion and equivalent to approximately 762,723 bars. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 1.63% to 10,592 while prices gained Rs 51, indicating fresh buying support. Gold is holding above Rs 152,015, with a sustained move above this level keeping the structure positive and opening the way toward Rs 153,460. A decisive breakout above Rs 153,460 could extend gains toward Rs 154,100, while a break below Rs 152,015 may trigger further weakness toward Rs 151,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151210-154100.

* Gold settled flat as strong U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations for higher interest rates.

* US nonfarm payrolls blow past expectations in August

* CFTC data showed COMEX gold speculators trimmed net longs by 10,504 contracts to 140,811

Silver

Silver settled 0.57% higher at Rs 239,016, recovering through short covering after prices declined following stronger-than-expected US employment data that pushed bond yields higher and strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August against expectations of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Following the jobs report, traders raised the probability of a Fed rate hike at next week’s policy meeting to nearly 60% from around 50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Market participants are now focused on upcoming US PPI and CPI data for further signals on inflation and monetary policy. Inflation risks also remain elevated as crude oil prices touched a near three-month high following US-Iran shipping-related strikes, although Iran indicated that Tehran and Oman would soon announce details of a temporary safe route through the Strait of Hormuz. Fed Governor Waller indicated that continued progress toward the 2% inflation goal could support holding rates at current levels. Fundamentally, silver remains supported by tightening supply conditions, with the market heading toward a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit. Around 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity pressure. The global silver deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand expected to decline 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%. Global supply is projected to decline 2%. London vault holdings increased 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at end-July, valued at $52.7 billion. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.02% to 12,420 while prices gained Rs 1,358, indicating continued bullish participation. Silver is holding above Rs 236,830, and sustained strength above this support could keep momentum positive toward Rs 240,595. A decisive breakout above Rs 240,595 may extend gains toward Rs 242,175, while a break below Rs 236,830 could trigger weakness toward Rs 234,645.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 234645-242175.

* Silver gains on short covering after prices dropped after stronger-than-expected US jobs data

* Iran says further attacks will be 'more painful'

* Silver net longs fell by 1,065 contracts to 12,170 - CFTC

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 2.12% higher at Rs 8,760 as tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran on vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas continued to disrupt Middle Eastern crude flows, strengthening geopolitical risk premiums. OPEC+ kept its October oil output policy unchanged at its latest meeting, with the producer group needing to finalize new quotas before determining its next production steps. The decision comes as the Iran war continues to constrain exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+ influence over global prices and market share. In August, OPEC+ had agreed to increase September production, completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut introduced in 2023. Goldman Sachs warned that crude oil could rebound toward $120 per barrel if shipping attacks intensify, while its downside scenario places prices near $80 if regional exports normalize. The bank also highlighted greater supply risks in European natural gas and refined products than crude oil. US crude inventories declined sharply by 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, marking the first decline in five weeks and exceeding expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw. Cushing stocks increased 0.08 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose 0.103 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.173 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks increased 0.796 million barrels, ending a five-week declining streak. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth outlook. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 17.23% to 18,028 while prices gained Rs 182, indicating strong participation behind the upward move. Crude oil is holding above Rs 8,624, and sustained buying above this support could keep momentum positive toward Rs 8,851. A decisive breakout above Rs 8,851 may extend gains toward Rs 8,942, while a break below Rs 8,624 could trigger profit booking toward Rs 8,488.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8488-8942.

* Crude oil gained as tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran kept crude oil flows in ME low.

* OPEC+ sticks with plan to keep oil output quotas unchanged

* Barclays maintains its 2026 Brent crude forecast at $96/bbl.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.25% higher at 281.2 as unseasonably warm weather across parts of the Midwest and eastern United States boosted cooling demand, encouraging power generators to burn more gas to meet elevated air-conditioning requirements. However, the market remained balanced by rising production and expectations of softer demand ahead. LSEG data showed average US Lower 48 gas output increasing to 112.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from August’s monthly high of 112.2 bcfd. Meanwhile, average Lower 48 gas demand including exports is projected to decline to 107.6 bcfd next week from 109.7 bcfd this week. Gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants increased to 18.1 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, highlighting continued strength in LNG demand. US working natural gas inventories rose by 30 billion cubic feet in the week ended August 28 to 3,214 Bcf, although stocks remained 50 Bcf below last year’s level and 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf. The EIA expects both US natural gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026. Dry gas production is forecast at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, compared with 107.6 bcfd in 2025, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. US LNG exports are also expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027 from 15.1 bcfd in 2025, despite a slight downward revision due to Freeport LNG maintenance. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.61% to 34,278 while prices gained Rs 0.7, indicating renewed participation. Natural gas is holding above support at 277.3, and sustained strength could drive prices toward resistance at 284.4. A decisive breakout above 284.4 may extend gains toward 287.7, while a break below 277.3 could weaken prices toward 273.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 273.5-287.7.

* Natural gas rose as unseasonably warm weather boosted cooling demand.

* Above-average temperatures across parts of the Midwest and eastern U.S. kept cooling demand high.

* Average gas output rose to 112.9 bcfd so far in September, up from a monthly high of 112.2 bcfd in August.

Copper

Copper settled 0.59% higher at 1,386.7 as expectations of supply shortages outside the United States encouraged buying, while a softer dollar improved overall market sentiment. US COMEX copper inventories remained elevated at a record 766,795 short tons, equivalent to 695,624 metric tons, but tightening availability elsewhere provided bullish support. Cancelled LME warrants representing 51% of stocks indicate that more than 121,000 tons of copper could leave the LME system over coming days and weeks. The LME cash-to-three-month premium had climbed above $430 per ton in mid-August, its highest level since 2021, before narrowing to around $74, highlighting easing but still significant nearby supply tightness. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories stood at only 63,000 tons, down 85% from mid-March and at their lowest level since January 2024, while ShFE backwardation further signaled concerns over physical availability in China, the world's largest copper consumer. Chilean copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tons from 445,322 tons, with severe weather disruptions and maintenance at major mining sites weighing on output. The global refined copper market shifted to a 60,000-ton deficit in June from a 15,000-ton surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 131,000-ton surplus compared with 114,000 tons a year earlier. Global refined output reached 2.37 million tons in June against consumption of 2.43 million tons. China's unwrought copper and product imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tons in July, while January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tons. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.04% to 10,884 while prices gained Rs 8.15, indicating continued bullish participation. Copper is holding above support at 1,377.4, and sustained strength could push prices toward resistance at 1,391.9. A decisive breakout above 1,391.9 may extend gains toward 1,397.2, while a break below 1,377.4 could trigger weakness toward 1,368.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1368.2-1397.2.

* Copper rose as the prospect of shortages outside the U.S. spurred buying, while the softer dollar reinforced positive sentiment.

* Copper prices on ShFE are also in backwardation suggesting the industry in China is also worried about supplies.

* The premium for the cash over the three-month forward climbed above $430 a ton in the middle of August, the highest since 2021.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.37% higher at 419.85, supported by tight supplies and declining inventories, although gains were capped by renewed Middle East hostilities that pushed crude oil prices higher and revived concerns over inflation and interest rates. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 3.3% from the previous Friday, reinforcing the supportive supply outlook. However, the three-month LME zinc backwardation narrowed to $85 from more than $200 in late August, while 9,975 tonnes of zinc deliveries into LME warehouses provided some relief to nearby supply tightness. Global mine supply has also weakened, with major producers reporting lower output. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production declined 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 to 365,600 tonnes, down 99,600 tonnes, although it retained its full-year guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, equivalent to 48% of its annual guidance range of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Nexa reported zinc production of 79.3 kt in the second quarter, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance. Elevated zinc prices have nevertheless weakened demand and discouraged buyers in China, the largest consumer. The global refined zinc market shifted into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes a year earlier. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 5.11% to 2,635 while prices gained Rs 1.55, indicating position unwinding rather than aggressive fresh buying. Zinc is holding above support at 418.2, and sustained strength could lead prices toward resistance at 420.9. A decisive breakout above 420.9 may extend gains toward 422, while a break below 418.2 could trigger further weakness toward 416.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 416.6-422.

* Zinc prices rose supported by tight supplies and low LME stocks.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.3% from last Friday

* Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes for H1 2026, down 99,600 tonnes, or 21%, year on year.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.53% higher at 349.45, supported by tightening physical availability and supply concerns, with the cash-to-three-month spread moving into slight backwardation, signalling firmer nearby demand and constrained supplies. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories declined 6.8% from the previous Friday, while stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. Supportive sentiment also came from expectations of seasonal improvement in Chinese demand and fiscal measures aimed at strengthening economic growth. However, upside remained limited as EGA and Alba maintained positive expectations for smelter restarts and production ramp-ups. China’s manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, beating expectations of 49.6, although it remained below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction. Chinese aluminium production increased 3.8% year-on-year to 3.9 million tonnes in July, while exports of unwrought aluminium and semis rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, taking January-July exports to 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7%. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, mainly due to a sharp 44% fall in Gulf production to 293,000 tonnes. Gulf daily output dropped to 9,800 tonnes from a pre-war baseline of 17,800 tonnes, as Middle East disruptions affected smelter operations and export logistics. Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte plant reduced alumina output to 50% of capacity due to natural gas supply constraints, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes. EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% capacity but is expected to recover toward previous output levels in early 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 1.28% to 4,249 while prices gained Rs 1.85. Aluminium is holding above support at 347.4, and sustained buying could push prices toward resistance at 350.8. A decisive breakout above 350.8 may extend gains toward 352.2, while a break below 347.4 could weaken prices toward 345.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345.4-352.2.

* Aluminium gains on supply tightness and availability concerns.

* However, downside seen limited as EGA and Alba maintain upbeat restart and ramp up expectations.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.8% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.65% higher at Rs 20,534, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and concerns that deficient rainfall and a possible El Nino could affect the developing crop. Carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over recent years, with industry estimates placing current stocks at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall availability buffer. Continued dry conditions during the early crop development stage could adversely affect yields, although the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate weather concerns. Reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have improved, ensuring better water availability during the vegetative phase, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall and crop conditions are improving. These developments have reduced crop failure fears and created a softer undertone, limiting the upside as traders assess whether improved weather will translate into stronger production. Supply pressure has also increased as farmers liquidate stocks during the peak harvest period. Meanwhile, tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM-compliant lots, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant-quality stocks. Export demand remains encouraging, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes in June 2025. April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes, while shipments to China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay recorded strong growth. In Nizamabad, spot prices ended at Rs 20,336.4, gaining 1.44%. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.85% to 36,390 while prices gained Rs 132, indicating renewed participation. Turmeric is holding above support at Rs 20,418, and a sustained move above this level could support a test of resistance at Rs 20,678. A decisive breakout above Rs 20,678 may extend gains toward Rs 20,824, while a break below Rs 20,418 could weaken prices toward Rs 20,304.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20304-20824.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20336.4 Rupees gained by 1.44 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.4% lower at Rs 21,370 as aggressive farmer liquidation ahead of the upcoming season increased market arrivals and pressured prices. Favorable weather across North-West India allowed harvesting and drying to progress faster than expected, accelerating deliveries, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement. Large industrial spice grinders remained cautious on bulk purchases, preferring to wait for lower prices and limiting immediate demand. However, downside remained restricted by tightening availability of premium-quality bold and export-grade seeds. Arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started declining significantly, while blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have affected both crop quality and harvestable quantities. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing support to quality premiums. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt logistics and weaken demand from traditional buyers, encouraging hand-to-mouth purchasing rather than aggressive stocking. Production prospects in Turkey and Syria ahead of their harvest have also weighed on Indian export premiums. Current estimates place Indian jeera production at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China production is estimated at 70-80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs 21,394.2, down 0.12%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.25% to 5,694 while prices fell Rs 85, indicating profit booking and position reduction. Jeera is holding above support at Rs 21,270, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs 21,170. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 21,520, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs 21,670.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21170-21670.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21394.2 Rupees dropped by -0.12 percent.

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