MCX Gold October is expected to rise towards Rs 155,000 as long as it holds above Rs 150,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is expected to move towards $4500 per ounce amid softer dollar and safe-haven buying. Further, steady inflows into the gold backed ETF’s and persistent central bank buying would provide strong support to bullion prices. Meanwhile, growing prospects of September rate hike by the US Federal reserve would check its upside. As per the CME Fed-watch tool, September rate hike bet stood at 60% indicating a tighter monetary stance. Further, rising crude oil prices, driven by renewed US–Iran tensions, are expected to heighten inflation concerns and increase the likelihood of tighter Fed monetary policy. Meanwhile, investors will eye on US inflation data and monetary policy outcome from the ECB for more clarity.
• MCX Gold October is expected to rise towards Rs 155,000 as long as it holds above Rs 150,000 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move in a broader range of Rs 236,000 to Rs 243,000. Only a move above Rs 243,000, it would turn bullish towards Rs 247,000.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade higher on persistent supply concerns. Copper exports from Chile hit its lowest since last 1-year, down by nearly 14% YoY. Further, latest report from International Copper Study Group indicates that global copper output fell by 1.1% in the first half of 2026. Persistent supply concerns and strong import demand from US should provide support to the metal. Furthermore, lower warehouse inventories in Shanghai and the London Metal Exchange would provide support to prices. On the other hand, risk-off sentiments due to the Middle east tension and expectation of tighter monetary policy would limit its upside.
• MCX Copper September is expected to rise towards Rs 1395 as long as it stays above Rs 1375 level. Only a move above Rs 1395 level, it will rise towards Rs 1405.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support near Rs 345 level and rise towards Rs 352-Rs 355. MCX Zinc September is likely to hold support near Rs 414 level and move higher towards Rs 422 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude futures are expected to trade higher amid fears of more supply disruptions in the Middle East. The recent escalation has increased the chances of a prolonged standoff between US and Iran, fueling concerns over supply from the Gulf region. Further, damage to oil refineries in the Gulf region as well as in Russia and depleting inventory levels would keep prices elevated. Meanwhile, focus will shift towards progress in talks between Iran and Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to rise towards $93.50 per barrel as long as it holds above $90 mark. A move above $93.50 levels would push prices towards $95. MCX Crude oil September is expected to rise towards Rs 8900 as long as it holds above Rs 8500 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to hold support near Rs 274 level and rise towards Rs 285 level.
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