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Gold

Gold prices rose 0.92% to settle at 145,758, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, softer crude oil prices, and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicating that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks. While Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target, he cautioned against expecting a rapid shift toward easier monetary policy. Market participants currently assign around a 62% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below expectations and the previous month's revised figure, although the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.2% as labor force participation weakened. On the physical market front, gold demand improved modestly in India, where prices moved to a premium for the first time in six weeks following a correction that encouraged buying. In contrast, demand in China remained subdued, with bullion continuing to trade at discounts despite the People's Bank of China extending its gold reserve purchases for a 19th consecutive month. However, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined sharply during May. Central banks globally remained supportive of the market, adding a net 41 tonnes of gold to official reserves during May. London vault holdings increased slightly to 9,392 tonnes, while global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America, although year-to-date ETF inflows remain firmly positive. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.32% alongside higher prices, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Gold has immediate support at 144,125, with a break below this level potentially extending losses toward 142,495. On the upside, resistance is seen at 147,025, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 148,295.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142495-148295.

*  Gold climbed, bolstered by soft jobs data, weaker oil and comments from the Fed chair.

*  Inflation risks and expectations have eased in recently - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

*  Central banks were back in buying mode in ‌May and, official gold reserves increased by a net 41 tons during the month  - WGC

Silver

Silver prices advanced 1.27% to settle at 233,304, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data that reinforced expectations of a more cautious Federal Reserve policy outlook. The U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below market expectations of 110,000 and the revised 129,000 recorded in May, marking the weakest monthly job growth in four months. Employment gains were concentrated in professional and business services, social assistance, and healthcare, while leisure and hospitality employment declined. Although initial jobless claims edged down to 219,000, continuing claims rose to 1.814 million, the highest level in three months, indicating a gradual softening in labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 4.2%, largely due to a decline in labor force participation rather than stronger hiring. In the physical market, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% during May to 27,611 tonnes, equivalent to around 920,378 silver bars, reflecting stable institutional inventories. India’s silver imports dropped sharply, falling 87% year-on-year in value and 94% in volume to just 33 metric tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. The decline followed tighter government restrictions on silver imports and an increase in import duties from 6% to 15% as authorities sought to reduce precious metal imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Despite the sharp slowdown in imports, India had already recorded a historic $12 billion in silver imports during the 2025/26 financial year. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.56% alongside higher prices, reflecting improving bullish sentiment. Silver has immediate support at 229,725, with further downside support at 226,150. On the upside, resistance is seen at 236,725, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 240,150.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 226150-240150.

* Silver rose after a weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted investors to reduce bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.

* US economy added 57K jobs in June 2026, well below a downwardly revised 129K in May and forecasts of 110K.

* The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 1,000 from the previous week, the lowest in five weeks.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher by 0.23% to settle at 6,540, as markets remained focused on geopolitical developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz despite signs of improving oil supply. Conflicting statements from the United States and Iran over maritime control of the strategic waterway kept risk sentiment elevated. The United Arab Emirates restored exports to more than 3.9 million barrels per day, helping push total daily crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz above 10 million barrels. Additional emergency reserve releases and increased Saudi exports to Asia also contributed to a more comfortable global supply outlook. Meanwhile, delays in upcoming peace talks in Qatar and continued tensions over Iran's nuclear program maintained uncertainty across energy markets. On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels to 408.3 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories also fell by 2.333 million barrels, reflecting healthy fuel demand, while distillate stocks unexpectedly increased by 2.483 million barrels. Crude inventories at the Cushing delivery hub posted their first weekly increase in ten weeks, and net U.S. crude imports rose by 370,000 barrels per day. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. Meanwhile, UBS lowered its Brent crude price forecasts, citing improved oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz following the recent U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. OPEC's May oil production fell to its lowest level in over two decades as geopolitical disruptions significantly reduced exports from Iran and several Gulf producers. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 4.15% while prices moved higher, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Crude oil has immediate support at 6,460, followed by 6,381, while resistance is seen at 6,584. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 6,629.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6381-6629.

* Crude oil prices gained after the U.S. and Iran expressed contradictory remarks over the management of Hormuz.

* US data showed total domestic oil stockpiles fell to their lowest levels since March 2025 after twelve consecutive weeks of drawdowns.

* U.S. energy firms pulled 5.5 mln bbls of crude oil from SPR, reducing the total amount of oil in the SPR to 325.7 mln bbls, the lowest since May 1983.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped 0.26% to settle at 306, pressured by abundant supply, softer crude oil prices, and forecasts for milder weather that are expected to limit near-term cooling demand. Although meteorologists continue to predict above-normal temperatures across the United States through July 16, the outlook was not strong enough to offset concerns over comfortable inventories and robust production. According to LSEG, average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased slightly to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July from 110 bcfd in June, while total demand, including exports, is projected to increase from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. LNG export activity remained supportive, with average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export facilities rising to 17.8 bcfd in July from 17.3 bcfd in June. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that utilities injected 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage during the latest week, broadly in line with market expectations and keeping inventories around 5.7% above the seasonal average. The build was significantly lower than the 96 bcf injection recorded during the same period last year but close to the five-year average of 75 bcf. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs over the next two years. Dry gas production is forecast to rise to 111 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are projected to increase to 17.2 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 12.28% alongside lower prices, indicating the addition of new short positions. Natural gas has immediate support at 302.9, followed by 299.8, while resistance is placed at 308. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further gains toward 310.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 299.8-310.

* Natural gas fell as ample supplies, lower oil prices and a milder weather outlook weighed on the market.

* Meanwhile, meteorologists forecast warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through July 16.

* Average gas output fell to 109.6 bcfd so far in July, down from 110 bcfd in June.

Copper

Copper prices gained 0.22% to settle at 1,275, supported by encouraging manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States, which highlighted resilient industrial activity despite higher input costs. Market sentiment also improved after balanced comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh eased concerns over persistent inflation and aggressive monetary tightening. In addition, uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper continued after the June review deadline passed without any announcement, keeping traders cautious. Long-term demand expectations remained strong, driven by investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, power grid expansion, and electric vehicles. On the supply side, Chile's copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tonnes, while inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to 339,100 tonnes, their lowest level since March. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks also dropped 5.7% to the lowest level since December, indicating improving physical demand. Meanwhile, China's refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year in May to 1.26 million tonnes, while unwrought copper imports reached a seven-month high in April as power grid investment remained robust. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 145,000-tonne global refined copper deficit in April as consumption exceeded production. Major investment banks also maintained a bullish outlook, with Goldman Sachs and Citi raising their copper price forecasts, citing tighter mine supply, growing structural deficits, and stronger long-term demand. However, rising Comex inventories and the absence of immediate supply tightness in the LME cash market continue to moderate near-term bullish momentum. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.41% while prices moved higher, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Copper has immediate support at 1,266.2, followed by 1,257.3, while resistance is seen at 1,284. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 1,292.9

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1257.3-1292.9.

* Copper prices gained supported by signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

* Data released by China, Europe, and the U.S. showed manufacturing strength despite higher input prices.

* A June deadline for a recommendation on potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper came and went with no news from the White House.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined 0.50% to settle at 359.75, pressured by rising inventories and concerns over weak demand, particularly in China. Total zinc stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses climbed to 154,727 metric tonnes, marking the highest level for this time of year since 2017. The inventory build reflects a combination of softer consumption and increasing domestic production. Although U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month in June, the pace of growth moderated due to slower new orders and production, limiting support for industrial metals. Investor sentiment also weakened as the latest LME Commitment of Traders report showed long positions in zinc declined by 5%, while short positions increased 2% to their highest level since March 2024. Despite weaker demand, downside pressure was partially offset by supply-side disruptions at several major operations. Production at Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan remains below capacity following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru continues its gradual recovery after fire-related disruptions. Concerns also persist over output at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine following seismic activity earlier this year. Meanwhile, China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, highlighting improving domestic supply. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus this year but forecasts tightening supply conditions beyond 2026 as mine supply growth slows while global zinc demand is projected to expand by around 2% annually. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.69% alongside lower prices, indicating new short positions entering the market. Zinc has immediate support at 357.8, followed by 355.7, while resistance is seen at 361.7. A sustained move above this level could lift prices toward 363.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 355.7-363.5.

* Zinc dropped as total SHFE stocks have climbed to 154,727 mt, the highest level for this time of year since 2017.

* LME COTR report shows long positions declined by 5% and short positions rose by 2%, the highest since March 2024.

* U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month in June.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 0.30% to settle at 328.20, pressured by expectations of improving global supply following earlier disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. Market sentiment weakened after Emirates Global Aluminium announced that production at its Al Taweelah complex is recovering faster than initially expected, although full hot metal output may still take up to a year to normalize. Additional supply optimism came after Norsk Hydro confirmed plans to partially restart production at its Slovalco aluminium smelter in Slovakia during the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by a new long-term power agreement. Rising aluminium production in China and expanding output from Indonesian smelters also added pressure to prices. Fundamentally, China continued to report resilient industrial activity, with the official Manufacturing PMI improving to 50.3 in June, indicating expansion in factory activity. China's aluminium production increased 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million tonnes, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth, while output during the first five months of the year rose 3.5%. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products also remained strong, increasing 5.7% in May. However, inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.7%, indicating steady domestic consumption. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs continues to expect a significant 720,000-tonne global aluminium deficit in 2026, citing slower recovery of Middle East smelting operations despite the recent improvement in production outlook. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 1.71% while prices moved lower, indicating the addition of new short positions. Aluminium has immediate support at 326.3, followed by 324.2, while resistance is placed at 329.9. A sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 331.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.2-331.4.

* Aluminium extended losses amid indications that supply is recovering faster than expected following disruptions from the Iran war.

* EGA said it was restoring production sooner than expected at its Al Taweelah complex hit by Iranian strikes in March

* Norsk Hydro's Slovak aluminium smelter to partially restart production

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.23% to settle at 17,552, supported by short covering after recent declines, although the broader market continued to face pressure from increased arrivals during the peak harvesting season. Farmers have accelerated stock liquidation, resulting in higher daily arrivals across major mandis that have outpaced immediate buying demand. Large inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, have also kept buyers cautious. Additional pressure came from reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals, forcing sellers to accept lower prices. Export demand from Europe and the United States slowed during the week, further limiting upward momentum. Despite the near-term pressure, the medium-term outlook remains relatively supportive. The advance of the southwest monsoon across southern India and forecasts of above-normal rainfall have improved prospects for the upcoming 2026-27 sowing season, encouraging expectations of higher acreage in major producing states. However, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than the 20 lakh bags reported last season, providing some support to overall market sentiment. Demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the European Union continues to strengthen, while steady procurement from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric has supported prices in Andhra Pradesh mandis. India's turmeric exports increased marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026, with strong demand from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offsetting weaker shipments to the United Arab Emirates and the United States. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.69% alongside higher prices, indicating the addition of new long positions. Turmeric has immediate support at 17,378, followed by 17,204, while resistance is seen at 17,718. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 17,884.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17204-17884.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16363.25 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped 0.10% to settle at 20,480, as profit booking emerged after recent gains, although the overall market remained supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality export-grade seeds. Daily arrivals at key trading centers such as Unjha in Gujarat and markets across Rajasthan have started to decline as the peak post-harvest arrival season comes to an end. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms affected crop quality by increasing moisture content and reducing seed colour, resulting in a widening price gap between standard and premium export-grade cumin. Farmers and stockists have adopted a cautious selling strategy, releasing stocks gradually rather than aggressively, helping maintain firmness in spot availability. Demand trends remain mixed. Domestic spice processors continue to follow a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy instead of building large inventories, limiting immediate buying momentum. However, export demand for residue-compliant and high-specification jeera remains healthy, with buyers from Europe and North America actively sourcing premium-quality lots. Market sentiment is also supported by expectations of increased buying interest from China in the coming months. Production estimates remain lower than last year due to reduced sowing acreage, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags in the previous season. Adverse weather has also lowered production estimates in China, while output in Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan is expected to remain modest. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE, although strong demand from Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the decline. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.98% alongside lower prices, indicating the exit of existing long positions. Jeera has immediate support at 20,410, followed by 20,330, while resistance is seen at 20,560. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 20,630.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20330-20630.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20518.75 Rupees dropped by -0.16 percent.

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