Silver trading range for the day is 237290-247740 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices slipped 0.64% to settle at Rs.151,721, as traders remained cautious ahead of key global central bank meetings. Persistent strength in crude oil prices has raised concerns that inflationary pressures could force a more hawkish stance from policymakers, limiting upside in bullion. Market participants are closely monitoring policy cues from major economies, along with geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing Middle East tensions. Hopes for de-escalation weakened after diplomatic efforts showed limited progress, adding to uncertainty. On the demand side, China continued to provide strong structural support. Gold imports surged to 162 tonnes in March, the highest in two years, while the central bank extended its buying streak to 17 months, taking total reserves to a record 2,313 tonnes. Switzerland’s gold exports also rose sharply, reflecting increased shipments to the UK and China. However, Indian demand remained relatively subdued despite festive buying during Akshaya Tritiya, although premiums rose due to supply disruptions caused by import delays. Globally, central bank activity remained mixed, with net purchases of 25 tonnes reported in the early part of the year, even as some countries like Turkey reduced holdings. Additionally, easing margins by CME Group may improve market liquidity. Technically, the market indicates fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.95% to 8,718, signaling new short positions. Gold is currently finding support at Rs.150,970; a break below could test Rs.150,220. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.152,740, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs.153,760.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 150220-153760.
* Gold dropped as traders stayed cautious ahead of upcoming central bank meetings.
* China has recorded a sharp increase in gold imports, reaching 162 tonnes in March—its highest monthly level in two years.
* Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its policy statement at the end of its two-day meeting on April 28 to 29.
Silver
Silver prices declined by 1.15% to settle at Rs.241,824, as investors turned cautious amid stalled US-Iran peace negotiations and a heavy calendar of global economic data and central bank meetings. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, has kept crude oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns. This, in turn, has reinforced expectations that central banks may maintain a tighter monetary stance. While the Federal Reserve is largely expected to keep rates unchanged, markets remain sensitive to any signals indicating prolonged higher rates, which tend to on non-yielding assets like silver. Macroeconomic sentiment remains fragile, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index revised slightly higher to 49.8 in April, yet still marking a record low, highlighting the adverse impact of geopolitical tensions on consumer confidence. Meanwhile, CME Group’s decision to cut margins on COMEX silver futures to 11% from 14% could improve trading participation and liquidity. On the demand front, China provided strong support to the silver market. Imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March—nearly three times the decade average—driven by aggressive retail buying and stockpiling by the photovoltaic (PV) sector ahead of policy changes. Elevated domestic premiums in China also triggered global arbitrage flows, with Hong Kong acting as a key transit hub. Additionally, London vault holdings rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, indicating stable institutional demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling sharply by 25.53% to 3,847, suggesting exit of bullish positions. Silver finds immediate support at Rs.239,555, with further downside potential toward Rs.237,290. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.244,780, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.247,740.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 237290-247740.
* Silver dropped as investors remained cautious ahead of stalled US-Iran peace talks and a packed week of economic data.
* Rising inflation risks and potential central bank rate hikes continue to weigh on the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.
* CME Group lowered the initial margin on its COMEX 5,000 silver futures to 11% from 14%.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices surged by 3.28% to settle at Rs.9,106, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing US–Iran conflict, now in its ninth week, has significantly tightened supply conditions, with negotiations remaining stalled. While Iran has proposed reopening the key shipping route, diplomatic progress remains uncertain after the US paused talks. The International Energy Agency has termed the situation as one of the largest energy supply shocks on record, amplifying inflation risks and clouding the global economic outlook. Fundamentally, the market is witnessing a tug-of-war between supply disruptions and weakening demand projections. Citi has raised its Brent crude outlook, warning prices could spike to $150 per barrel if supply constraints persist. However, S&P Global Energy has cut its 2026 demand growth forecast sharply by 700,000 barrels per day, citing the adverse impact of the conflict on consumption, particularly in the Middle East and Asia. Similarly, OPEC revised down its second-quarter demand estimate, though it expects recovery in the latter half of the year. Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed mixed signals. Crude stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels, indicating supply build-up, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined sharply, reflecting strong end-user demand. Meanwhile, global strategic reserves remain substantial, led by major holders like the U.S., China, and Japan. Technically, the market indicates fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 11.82% to 12,304, suggesting new long positions entering the market. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs.8,945, with further downside potential toward Rs.8,785. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.9,236, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs.9,367.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8785-9367.
* Crude oil climbed as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed amid stalled US–Iran peace negotiations.
* Reports indicated that Iran had submitted a new proposal to the US aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing tensions.
* Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent oil price for the remainder of 2026, and said it sees prices reaching $150 per barrel.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices rose by 2.39% to settle at Rs.261.5, supported by declining production levels, improved near-term demand expectations, and strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) export activity. Output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has eased in April, with daily production dropping to an 11-week low as weak spot prices prompted producers to scale back supply. This tightening on the supply side has offered price support despite relatively soft seasonal demand conditions. Weather dynamics continue to play a limiting role. Mild temperatures across key regions like Texas and California have reduced both heating and cooling demand, even pushing power and gas prices into negative territory at times due to excess renewable energy supply. Forecasts suggest slightly cooler-than-normal weather through early May, but this is unlikely to significantly boost consumption. Demand projections reflect this trend, with expected usage declining from 103.7 bcfd this week to around 100 bcfd over the next two weeks. On the storage front, inventories remain robust. U.S. energy firms injected 103 billion cubic feet of gas into storage for the week ended April 17, well above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. Total stockpiles now stand at 2.063 trillion cubic feet, indicating ample supply as the market progresses through the refill season. Meanwhile, long-term projections from the EIA point to rising production through 2027, alongside moderate fluctuations in domestic demand and continued growth in LNG exports. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.71% to 25,872, indicating exit of bearish positions. Natural gas finds immediate support at Rs.255.5, with further downside toward Rs.249.6. Resistance is seen at Rs.266.6, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs.271.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 249.6-271.8.
* Natural gas edged up boosted by a drop in output in recent weeks, lifted demand forecasts
* Mild weather and low demand to boost gas storage levels to 8% above normal.
* Some Texas and California power and gas prices turn negative as renewables meet demand
Copper
Copper prices edged higher by 0.25% to settle at Rs.1,296.55, as the market balanced geopolitical uncertainty with improving demand signals from China. A fragile Iran ceasefire and ongoing Middle East tensions continue to influence sentiment, while supply-side constraints are offering support. Global smelters entering a concentrated maintenance phase in Q2, along with declining inventories, have tightened near-term availability and underpinned prices. On the fundamentals, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects a shift toward surplus, estimating a refined copper surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 and widening to 377,000 tons in 2027, primarily due to slower demand growth and rising secondary supply. Global mine production is expected to grow modestly by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. However, supply dynamics remain mixed, with Peru reporting a 2.9% increase in output, while Chile’s Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine posted declines, partially offset by strong gains at Collahuasi. Demand trends show mixed signals. Chinese restocking ahead of the Labor Day holiday and a sharp 16.3% drop in Shanghai exchange inventories supported prices. However, China’s copper imports fell 10.9% in March, even as refined production rose 8.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Comex inventories climbed to record highs, reflecting ongoing arbitrage flows into the U.S. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 16.32% to 12,288, indicating new long positions. Copper has immediate support at Rs.1,292.4, with further downside toward Rs.1,288.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.1,303.2, and a sustained breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.1,309.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1288.3-1309.9.
* Copper climbed as investors balanced Middle East risk with improving China demand
* Global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, which is tightening the supply side.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 16.3 % from last Friday.
Zinc
Zinc prices declined by 0.9% to settle at Rs.346.3, as the market witnessed profit booking following recent gains. Despite the pullback, underlying sentiment remains supported by tightening supply conditions and improving macro cues. Continued declines in LME zinc inventories and a narrowing cash-to-3M contango reflect tightening near-term availability. Additionally, falling treatment charges (TCs) for zinc concentrate indicate persistent raw material constraints, further underpinning prices. On the supply side, inventories remain under pressure. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell 1.8%, while port inventories of zinc concentrate dropped significantly, highlighting tight feedstock conditions. Ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions have added to supply-side stress, although some relief is expected from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project. Meanwhile, Peru’s zinc concentrate output showed mixed trends, declining on a monthly basis but improving year-on-year. Demand-side indicators present a mixed outlook. China’s factory activity returning to expansion and supportive monetary policy signals from its central bank have improved sentiment for industrial metals. However, concerns over the global economic impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, are capping upside potential. The global zinc market has shifted into a modest surplus, with the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reporting a 9,200-ton surplus in January. Goldman Sachs also expects a small surplus in the near term, though longer-term supply growth may slow, potentially tightening the market beyond 2027. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 22.27% to 1,894, indicating new short positions. Zinc is finding support at Rs.343.8, with further downside toward Rs.341.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.351, and a break above this level could push prices toward Rs.355.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 341.3-355.7.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained by continued declines in LME zinc ingot inventory.
* Support also seen amid improved macro sentiment, a softer dollar, and optimism after Iran announced passage through the Hormuz.
* Zinc concentrate TCs continued to decline, signaling tighter raw material conditions that are supportive for zinc prices.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.41% to settle at Rs.375.7, supported by escalating supply concerns linked to the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The prolonged geopolitical conflict has significantly impacted Middle Eastern production, with reports of damage to key refineries in the UAE and Bahrain intensifying fears of a sustained supply shock. Market participants are increasingly factoring in a potential structural deficit, with Mercuria describing the situation as a “black swan” event for global aluminium supply. Fundamentally, tightening inventories and reduced output are providing strong support to prices. LME aluminium stocks declined to 393,800 metric tons, while inventories at major Japanese ports fell 7.4% month-on-month. Additionally, Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums at 11-year highs for Q2 shipments, reflecting tight physical availability. Production disruptions in the Gulf region, which accounts for around 9% of global supply, saw output fall 6% in March, highlighting the direct impact of the conflict. JP Morgan projects a significant global deficit of 1.9 million tons in 2026, with prices expected to average around $3,500 per ton and potentially spike toward $4,000 in the near term. On the demand side, China remains a key driver, with imports rising 6.9% year-on-year in March and primary production increasing 2.7%. However, rising Shanghai inventories indicate some localized supply buildup. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising sharply by 27.44% to 3,000, indicating new long positions. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs.372.8, with further downside toward Rs.369.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.379.1, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.382.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 369.9-382.5.
* Aluminium gains as the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply.
* The global aluminium market is already experiencing a "black swan" supply shock due to disruptions stemming from the war
* LME aluminium inventory continued to decline, with the latest level at 393,800 mt, reinforcing supply concerns.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined by -1.96% to settle at 16,100, weighed down by a sharp increase in arrivals across key mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli. The surge in supply, driven by farmers accelerating sales to meet liquidity needs for upcoming Kharif sowing, created a temporary glut in the market. Additionally, higher inflows of late-harvested, moisture-affected turmeric led to aggressive discounting, particularly for average-quality lots. Export sentiment also remained cautious amid ongoing Middle East tensions, which disrupted logistics and delayed buying interest, while the absence of fresh weather threats reduced the earlier risk premium. However, downside remains limited due to underlying supply tightness. Arrivals are still below normal for peak season in parts of Maharashtra and Telangana, while quality concerns such as rhizome rot have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” varieties. Strong holding back by farmers and stockists in regions like Sangli and Nizamabad, coupled with reduced carry-forward stocks estimated at 15 lakh bags versus over 20 lakh last year, continue to support the broader outlook. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the EU and steady buying from Bangladesh are also providing support. Production has been revised lower to 1.140 million tonnes, while emerging concerns over a below-normal monsoon are adding a longer-term bullish undertone. Export data shows marginal growth of 1% during Apr–Feb 2026, while imports dropped sharply by 40%, indicating reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down by -1.84% to 16,770. Immediate support is seen at 15,848, with a break below potentially testing 15,596. Resistance is placed at 16,436, and a move above could push prices towards 16,772 levels.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15596-16772.
* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".
* Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.
* The absence of fresh weather disruptions during the post-harvest phase has effectively removed the "weather risk premium."
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15812.25 Rupees dropped by -1.04 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices witnessed a sharp decline of -3.69% to settle at 20,090, primarily pressured by elevated arrivals and aggressive farmer selling. Daily arrivals at Unjha remained high at around 28,500 bags, creating a clear supply glut in the spot market. Fresh inflows from Rajasthan, along with faster harvesting due to favorable weather conditions, resulted in a supply spike rather than the staggered arrivals earlier anticipated. Farmers continued to offload stocks to meet liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, further intensifying selling pressure. Despite the near-term weakness, underlying fundamentals remain relatively supportive. Weather disruptions such as hailstorms and unseasonal rains in Rajasthan have impacted crop quality, particularly reducing the availability of premium “A-grade” and Sortex-quality jeera. Gujarat’s production is estimated to decline nearly 27% due to lower acreage and yields, while disease outbreaks have further affected output. National production is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Globally, reduced output expectations in China (70–80 thousand tons) and stable production from other origins like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan provide a supportive backdrop. Export data shows a 15% decline during Apr–Feb 2026, indicating subdued global demand, although February exports rose 39% month-on-month, hinting at some recovery. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by -6.84% to 8,700, indicating exit of long positions. Jeera is currently finding support at 19,740, with a break below likely to test 19,370 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 20,700, and a move above could push prices towards 21,290 levels.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19370-21290.
* Jeera dropped as daily arrivals at the Unjha have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut.
* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India, resulting in a "supply spike".
* Farmers are actively offloading stocks this week to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20861.35 Rupees dropped by -0.79 percent.
Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views
