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Gold 

Gold prices witnessed a sharp decline of 2.97% to settle at Rs.149,309 amid a stronger U.S. dollar and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but signaled growing support for future rate hikes, with nearly half of FOMC members projecting at least one rate increase in 2026. Inflation forecasts were revised higher due to ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, while robust U.S. retail sales growth of 0.9% in May highlighted resilient consumer spending. Although markets have reduced expectations for a December rate hike, elevated inflation concerns and a firm dollar continued to weigh on bullion prices. On the demand side, the World Gold Council survey showed that 45% of global reserve managers expect to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months, reflecting strong long-term confidence in the metal. Physical demand in India improved modestly as lower prices attracted jewellery buyers, though purchases remained cautious amid uncertain retail demand. In China, domestic premiums eased, indicating softer buying interest. Meanwhile, India’s physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly outflow in a year during May as investors booked profits after the recent rally. Global gold ETF sentiment also weakened in May, with net outflows of $2 billion reducing total assets under management by 2% to $604 billion. Holdings declined marginally to 4,121 tonnes, while London vault gold stocks rose 0.21% month-on-month to 9,392 tonnes. Despite the monthly outflow, year-to-date ETF inflows remain positive at nearly $17 billion. Technically, gold is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 2.89% while prices declined sharply, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs.147,840, with a break below opening the door toward Rs.146,365. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.151,810, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further recovery towards Rs.154,305.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 146365-154305.

*  Gold dropped as Fed signaled increasing support for rate hikes later this year.

*  Half of FOMC members now project at least one rate increase in 2026, while the central bank sharply raised its inflation forecasts.

*  Fed Chair Warsh stressed that inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target for several years

Silver

Silver prices witnessed a sharp correction of 5.65% to settle at Rs.237,572, tracking weakness across the precious metals complex after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but signaled growing support for a rate hike later this year. The FOMC unanimously kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability amid persistent inflationary pressures. Following the policy announcement, market expectations for a December rate hike surged to 83.1%, significantly reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals. On the geopolitical front, sentiment improved after reports indicated that the United States and Iran are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict and ensuring safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The easing of geopolitical risk reduced safe-haven demand and added further pressure on silver prices. Fundamentally, silver demand in China remained exceptionally strong. March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes, nearly three times the historical seasonal average, supported by robust retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of tax policy changes. Elevated domestic premiums encouraged significant inflows into China from global markets. Meanwhile, London vault holdings increased 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes. In contrast, India's silver imports collapsed in May, falling 87% year-on-year in value terms and 94% in volume to just 33 tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. The decline followed tighter import restrictions and higher import duties imposed by the government to curb precious metals imports and protect foreign exchange reserves. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 7.82% alongside a steep price decline, indicating aggressive short build-up. Immediate support is seen at Rs.233,860, with a break below likely to test Rs.230,140. Resistance is placed at Rs.244,650, while a sustained move above this level could open the path towards Rs.251,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 230140-251720.

* Silver dropped as the US Federal Reserve signaled growing support for interest rate hikes this year.

* Fed decided to leave the policy rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range.

* Markets now see an 83.1% chance of a rate hike in December this year, jumping from 61% before the Fed decision.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 1.45% to settle at Rs.7,054, marking the lowest closing level since early March, as market sentiment turned bearish following reports of a breakthrough agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the prolonged conflict that had severely disrupted global energy supplies. The signing of an interim agreement and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz improved expectations for a normalization of oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Early signs of recovery were visible as several oil tankers and LNG vessels resumed transit through the strategic shipping route. A full reopening could enable major producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq to restore significant volumes of previously halted production. Despite the decline in prices, underlying supply fundamentals remained supportive. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels during the week ended June 12, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 4.6 million-barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also declined by 1.61 million barrels, while gasoline inventories fell modestly, indicating steady fuel demand. Refinery activity increased, with crude processing rates and utilization levels both moving higher. However, distillate inventories posted a build, partially offsetting the bullish inventory data. On the supply side, OPEC production fell sharply in May to 16.13 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than two decades. The decline was driven primarily by reduced Iranian exports and disruptions across Gulf producers during the conflict period. Although OPEC+ members had planned production increases, geopolitical constraints prevented meaningful output growth. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 18.83% alongside falling prices, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is seen at Rs.6,928, with a break below potentially extending losses toward Rs.6,803. Resistance is placed at Rs.7,147, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs.7,241.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6803-7241.

* Crude oil dropped, the lowest level since early March, as markets reacted to the US and Iran reaching an agreement.

* Early signs of progress emerged as several vessels began crossing the Strait of Hormuz again after weeks of disruption.

* President Trump said an interim agreement had been signed, with plans to quickly reopen the key Persian Gulf shipping route.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices advanced by 1.98% to settle at Rs.303.2, supported by a slightly bullish U.S. storage report and expectations of stronger cooling demand during the summer season. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that utilities injected 73 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 12, marginally below market expectations of a 75 bcf build. The increase was also significantly lower than the 97 bcf injection recorded during the same period last year and matched the five-year average, providing support to prices. Total U.S. natural gas inventories rose to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, which remains around 1% below year-ago levels but 5.8% above the five-year seasonal average. The latest storage build also marked a slowdown from the previous week's larger 108 bcf injection, indicating improving demand conditions. Weather forecasts calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures through early July are expected to boost electricity consumption for air conditioning, thereby increasing gas demand from power generators. On the supply side, average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export facilities remained steady at 17.1 billion cubic feet per day in June, while Lower 48 dry gas production eased slightly to 109.4 bcfd from 109.7 bcfd in May. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in the coming years. Production is projected to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while domestic demand is expected to increase to 92.1 bcfd next year. LNG exports are also forecast to expand steadily, reflecting robust global demand. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 20.78% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs.297.2, with further support at Rs.291.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.306.9, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.310.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 291.3-310.7.

* Natural gas prices rose after the latest EIA report showed a slightly smaller-than-expected increase in storage.

* US energy companies added 73 billion cubic feet of gas to inventories in the week ended June 12, below forecasts for a 75 bcf build.

* Total stockpiles climbed to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, around 1% below last year’s level but 5.8% above the five-year average.

Copper 

Copper prices declined by 1.22% to settle at Rs.1,321.8, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook after policymakers left interest rates unchanged but signaled increasing support for rate hikes later this year. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on global economic growth and industrial metals demand. Additional pressure came after Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia following a temporary disruption, easing immediate supply concerns. Sentiment was also impacted by the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which is expected to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and reduce geopolitical risk premiums across commodity markets. Despite the correction, the medium- to long-term copper outlook remains constructive. Jefferies continues to project a significant average annual supply deficit through 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised their copper price forecasts, citing constrained mine supply growth, strong U.S. imports, and increasing demand from electrification, power infrastructure, and data centers. China's central bank has also encouraged banks to increase lending, supporting economic activity and industrial demand. China's unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high, while power grid investment surged 37% during the first quarter, highlighting robust underlying demand. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 30,000 metric tonnes in March and expects the global market to remain in surplus through 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and rising secondary production. Global refined copper output continues to outpace consumption, although mine supply growth remains constrained. Technically, copper is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 4.75% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs.1,316.9, with further downside possible toward Rs.1,311.8. Resistance is placed at Rs.1,330.6, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.1,339.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1311.8-1339.2.

* Copper dropped after Fed left interest rates unchanged but signaled increasing support for rate hikes later this year.

* Pressure also seen after Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.

* China's central bank has instructed banks to boost lending, in a further boost to copper market sentiment.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.16% to settle at Rs.370.7, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and persistent concerns over near-term supply disruptions. Market sentiment improved after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending their conflict, reducing fears over global economic growth and supporting the outlook for industrial metals demand. However, gains remained limited as the U.S. dollar strengthened following increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year, making metals relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. Supply-side concerns continued to provide underlying support to zinc prices. Several major producers have recently faced operational disruptions, tightening the refined metal market. Goldman Sachs highlighted the risk of lower production at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine following a seismic event, while Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru after a fire damaged key infrastructure. In addition, Kazzinc’s zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan have been operating at reduced capacity following an explosion. These incidents have reinforced concerns over metal availability despite expectations of improving mine supply later in the year. Fundamentally, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 26,500 metric tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March, indicating improving market balance. Although the market remains in surplus on a year-to-date basis, low inventories, mine closures, and delays continue to support prices. China's accommodative monetary policy and efforts to stimulate domestic demand also remain positive for zinc consumption. Technically, zinc is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 0.71% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs.367.4, with further support at Rs.364.0. Resistance is placed at Rs.373.0, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.375.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 364-375.2.

* Zinc gains supported by easing geopolitical tensions and tight near-term supply conditions.

* However, upside seen limited  as the US dollar strengthened amid increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, pressuring the prices.

* Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is running at reduced capacity after an explosion

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by 0.49% to settle at Rs.356.9 as easing geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East. Market sentiment weakened after the United States and Iran signed an interim peace agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for Gulf aluminium exports. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium production, and expectations of gradually improving metal flows weighed on prices. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance added pressure by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers. Further downside pressure came from increasing aluminium production in China and expanding supply from Indonesian smelters. China's aluminium output rose 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million tonnes, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. During the first five months of 2026, production increased 3.5% to 19.22 million tonnes. At the same time, concerns about Chinese demand persisted amid weaker economic indicators, although imports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 6.9% in March and exports increased 5.7% in May, highlighting active trade flows. Despite recent weakness, some supply-side factors continue to provide support. Aluminium inventories in LME warehouses remain at 316,525 tonnes, the lowest level since September 2022, while stocks at major Japanese ports declined by 10.8% month-on-month. Ongoing operational challenges at several Middle Eastern smelters, including Qatalum, EGA, and ALBA, along with tighter bauxite export controls from Guinea, continue to pose risks to future supply availability. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 8.91% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs.354.8, with a break below likely to test Rs.352.6. Resistance is placed at Rs.358.9, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs.360.8

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 352.6-360.8.

* Aluminium fell as an interim US-Iran peace deal eased supply concerns.

* Additional downside risks come from rising output in China, and increasing supply from smelters in Indonesia.

* Weak economic data from China has raised concerns over demand as the country is also one of the biggest consumers of the metal.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices remained largely unchanged, settling marginally lower by 0.04% at Rs.17,120, as increased arrivals and farmer selling during the peak harvest season weighed on market sentiment. Higher daily arrivals across major mandis have outpaced immediate buying interest, creating short-term pressure on prices. Reports indicate that stock levels in Warangal remained substantial at around 1.13 lakh bags as of the end of May, encouraging buyers to adopt a cautious approach. Farmers who had been holding inventory in anticipation of higher prices have also started releasing stocks into the market, adding to supply availability. Export demand remained mixed during the period. While cumulative exports continued to show resilience, fresh orders from key markets such as Europe and the United States slowed. However, India's turmeric exports registered a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.6% in April 2026, reaching 15,039 tonnes. Strong demand from China, which imported 1,455 tonnes compared to just 9 tonnes a year ago, provided significant support. Exports also recorded impressive growth to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan. Bangladesh remained the largest importer, while weaker shipments to the UAE and the United States partially offset gains from other destinations. Fundamentally, the market continues to receive support from relatively lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and active procurement from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric have also helped maintain underlying sentiment. Meanwhile, favorable monsoon progress and expectations of higher acreage for the 2026-27 season are easing long-term supply concerns. Technically, turmeric is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.15% while prices edged lower, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs.16,980, with further downside likely toward Rs.16,840. Resistance is placed at Rs.17,280, and a move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.17,440.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16840-17440.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16382.05 Rupees gained by 0.94 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices gained 0.39% to settle at Rs.20,770, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality produce and renewed export demand from key international markets. Buyers from Europe and North America have returned to the market, focusing primarily on residue-compliant and high-specification lots. In addition, large industrial processors have gradually increased procurement at current price levels to replenish inventories. Concerns over quality supply also emerged after recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvest period, raising fears of reduced availability of premium-grade cumin. Unseasonal rainfall in north-western India further delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary supply disruptions. However, gains remained capped due to rising arrivals from major producing regions. Fresh crop arrivals from Rajasthan have increased significantly as favorable weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized near 28,500 bags, contributing to ample market supplies. Farmers are also actively liquidating stocks to generate cash for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, maintaining selling pressure. While overall inventories remain comfortable, the availability of high-quality Sortex-grade carryover stocks is lower than last year, supporting premium pricing. Fundamentally, production prospects remain lower compared to the previous season. Industry estimates place total jeera production at around 90–92 lakh bags, down from approximately 1.10 crore bags last year. Lower acreage, reduced yields, and disease outbreaks in Gujarat have contributed to the decline. Internationally, adverse weather conditions have also lowered production estimates in China, supporting the longer-term demand outlook. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp drop in shipments to the UAE. However, strong growth in exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil helped partially offset the decline. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 1.01% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs.20,600, with further support at Rs.20,420. Resistance is placed at Rs.20,880, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.20,980.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20420-20980.

* Jeera gains on short covering and as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* European and North American buyers have re-entered the market, specifically targeting residue-compliant and high-specification lots.

* Large industrial processors have started increasing their "hand-to-mouth" inventory levels at these lower price points.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20494.3 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views