MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a range of Rs 255,000 - Rs 246,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to remain under pressure amid strong dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Further, prices may dip as US Federal Reserve held interest rate steady and signaled 1 rate hike by the end of the year. Half of the FOMC members indicated that it may be necessary to raise rates this year, signaling growing concerns about inflation above central banks target. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of Bank of England monetary policy and slew of economic data from US to gauge economic health of the country. Meanwhile, sharp fall in the prices may be cushioned on reports that US and Iran signed an interim peace deal electronically to end the war and open Strait of Hormuz, which may restore oil flows through the Persian Gulf.
• MCX Gold Aug is expected to trade in a range of Rs 155,000-152,000 level. Only break below Rs 152,000 level prices may dip further towards Rs 151,000
• MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a range of Rs 255,000- Rs 246,000
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid strong dollar and mixed global market sentiments. Further, investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from major economies and BOE monetary policy decision. Meanwhile, sharp fall in prices may be cushioned on ongoing concerns about US import tariffs and persistent decline in inventory at LME registered warehouses.
• MCX Copper June is expected to slip towards Rs 1325 level as long as it stays below Rs 1350 level. A break below Rs 1325 level prices may be pushed towards Rs 1320- Rs 1315 level
• MCX Aluminum June is expected to rise towards Rs 365- Rs 369 level as long as its stays above Rs 355 level. MCX Zinc June is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 372 level and slip towards Rs 365- Rs 362 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias on expectation of improvement in supply from Middle East as US and Iran signed an interim agreement that could end the war, reopen Strait of Hormuz and waive of sanctions on Iranian oil. Iranian oil reaching markets would weigh on prices as it will significantly increase global energy supply. Furthermore, other factors that may weigh on oil prices are worries over weak demand from China and U.S. calls for peace between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, IEA cautioned that if the agreement is successfully implemented and Strait of Hormuz is reopened, significant supply glut would be seen in 2027. It expects sizeable 5mbpd surplus in 2027. Meanwhile, as per EIA report total crude inventories, including commercial stocks and those in the Strategic Petroleum, plunged by 17.2 million to 758.5 million barrels last week, lowest since March 1985. MCX Crude oil July is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 7580 level and slip towards Rs 7000- Rs 6900 level
• MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip towards Rs 288 - Rs 285 level as long as it stays below Rs 312 level.
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