Turmeric trading range for the day is 14136-15380 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices slipped, settling 1.13% lower at Rs158,466, as investors weighed persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against signs of slowing economic growth in the United States. While elevated crude oil prices continue to stoke inflation concerns, revised data showed U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2025 slowing sharply to an annualized 0.7%, raising fresh questions about the strength of the economy. As a result, markets now see reduced chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with policymakers balancing inflation risks from geopolitical tensions against signs of economic cooling. Despite the decline in prices, global demand trends remain supportive. China’s central bank extended its gold buying streak to a 16th consecutive month, increasing its holdings to 74.22 million troy ounces by the end of February. The value of China’s gold reserves rose to $387.59 billion, reflecting both steady purchases and higher global prices. Import data also showed stronger physical demand, with China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rising 68.7% in January to 20.58 tonnes. In contrast, demand in India remained weak due to high prices and import duties, pushing local market discounts to as much as $83 per ounce, the widest since 2016. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.26% to 7,844 lots while prices declined by Rs1,805. Immediate support is seen near Rs157,115, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs155,760. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs160,250, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of Rs162,030.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 155760-162030.
* Gold dropped as investors balanced persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with cooling economic growth in US.
* US Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to an annualized 0.7% has introduced new concerns regarding economic stability.
* Traders bet on Fed rate cut by September
Silver
Silver prices declined sharply, settling 3.18% lower at Rs259,435, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed heavily on the precious metals complex. The dollar index remained above the 100 mark, its highest level since late November 2025, and is on track for a second straight weekly gain. Investors have continued to favor the greenback as a safe-haven asset amid escalating tensions with Iran and the absence of any clear path toward de-escalation. The U.S. is also viewed as relatively better positioned than many other economies due to its greater energy independence. Markets also reacted to a fresh set of U.S. economic data. The PCE inflation report showed the annual inflation rate easing to 2.8%, while fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply lower to 0.7%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.4%. Despite the softer growth outlook, traders still expect the Federal Reserve to deliver only one interest rate cut this year, likely around September. The upcoming policy meeting next week will be closely watched for guidance on the central bank’s outlook. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, down 2.4% from the previous month. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.88% to 5,889 lots while prices dropped by Rs8,527. Immediate support is seen at Rs252,875, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs246,320. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs267,585, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of Rs275,740.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 246320-275740.
* Silver dropped as dollar index remained above the 100 mark, its highest level since late November 2025.
* Traders continued to favor dollar as a safe haven amid the escalating conflict with Iran and the lack of prospects for an imminent resolution.
* Markets assessed a fresh batch of key economic data, the annual PCE inflation rate slowing to 2.8%.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices extended their gains, settling 2.82% higher at Rs9,052, as the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy flows. The waterway handles nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, and continued tensions in the Middle East have kept markets on edge. Although an Indian tanker recently managed to exit the strait and the United States introduced measures aimed at easing supply concerns, the broader market remains focused on the risk of prolonged disruptions. In an effort to stabilize global energy markets, the U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has sharply reduced production to around 8 mbpd, down from more than 10 million bpd in February, after cutting output from two major offshore fields amid the conflict with Iran. According to the IEA, Gulf producers including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have collectively reduced supply by at least 10 million barrels per day. Reflecting the heightened uncertainty, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average above $100 per barrel in March before easing to around $85 in April. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 17.62% to 14,311 lots while prices gained Rs248. Immediate support is seen near Rs8,694, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs8,336. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs9,255, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of Rs9,458.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8336-9458.
* Crude oil rose as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke 20% of global daily energy throughput.
* Saudi Arabia cuts oil output by at least 2 million bpd to around 8 mln bpd
* Middle East Gulf countries including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia have cut total oil production by at least 10 mbpd - IEA
Natural gas
Natural gas prices slipped 1.92% to settle at Rs291.9, pressured by forecasts of milder weather and slightly lower demand expectations for the coming week. With temperatures expected to remain mostly near seasonal norms through the rest of March, heating demand is likely to stay subdued. This could allow utilities to begin injecting gas into storage earlier than usual as the winter withdrawal season gradually winds down. Supply conditions also remain comfortable. Average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states has climbed to around 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from LSEG. This is close to the record monthly high of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. LSEG estimates that total gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, may rise from 112.7 bcfd this week to about 124.6 bcfd next week, before easing again in the following week. On the inventory front, the U.S. EIA reported that energy firms withdrew 38 bcf of gas from storage during the week ended March 6, below market expectations of 42 bcf. Storage levels remain 8.3% higher than the same period last year, though still 0.9% below the five-year average. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.52% to 19,270 lots while prices dropped by Rs5.7. Immediate support is seen at Rs284.3, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs276.8. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs303.6, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of Rs315.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 276.8-315.4.
* Natural gas eased on forecasts for less demand than previously expected and mild weather through the rest of March.
* EIA said energy firms pulled 38 bcf of gas out of storage, less than market expectations of a 42 bcf withdrawal.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 bcfd so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February.
Copper
Copper prices slipped 1.24% to settle at Rs1,187.4, weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The dollar index moved above the 100 level, making metals priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for global buyers. The ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has further unsettled markets, especially after Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, intensifying concerns about disruptions to energy and transport routes. Higher oil prices and inflation risks have also reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, offering additional support to the dollar. On the supply side, workers at Glencore’s Townsville copper refinery in Australia have threatened to strike over a pay dispute. The facility produces up to 300,000 tons of copper annually, including feed from BHP’s Olympic Dam, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. However, copper prices faced pressure from elevated inventories on the London Metal Exchange and data showing that China’s unwrought copper imports fell 16.1% year-on-year to 700,000 tons during January–February. Meanwhile, the ICSG reported a 173,000-ton global refined copper surplus in December, widening from 74,000 tons in November. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.35% to 15,099 lots as prices fell Rs14.9. Immediate support is placed at Rs1,180.3, and a break below this level could lead to a test of Rs1,173.1. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs1,198.4, with a move above this level potentially pushing prices toward Rs1,209.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1173.1-1209.3.
* Copper fell as the dollar strengthened above 100 level amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.
* Heightened forward-looking inflation risks dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.0 % from last Friday.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged lower, settling 0.28% down at Rs324.45, as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising inventories in China weighed on the market. Stocks held in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 9.2% from last Friday, adding near-term pressure on prices. The dollar index also climbed above 100, supported by heightened risk aversion amid the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, which has added volatility to global financial markets. Despite the downside pressure, losses remained limited due to persistent concerns about tight supply and historically low inventories in some regions. China, the world’s largest metals consumer, recently set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly lower than last year’s pace. Authorities signaled that monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate adjustments to support economic activity. These measures could help stabilize industrial demand. On the supply side, mine output has been gradually recovering. Boliden’s Tara mine in Ireland has restarted operations after being shut since mid-2023 due to weak prices, while Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues ramping up production. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 8.51% to 2,858 lots while prices slipped Rs0.9. Immediate support is seen near Rs323.4, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs322.4. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs325.5, with a move above this level potentially opening the door to Rs326.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 322.4-326.6.
* Zinc dropped as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 9.2%.
* Dollar strengthened above 100 levels amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
* However downside seen limited amid a low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices slipped 1.1% to settle at Rs346.1, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continued to fade. Despite the decline, prices remained supported on a weekly basis due to ongoing shipping disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East, which have raised concerns about supply risks across global metal markets. Supply indicators present a mixed picture. LME aluminium inventories declined to 445,300 tons, the lowest level since July, while the cash contract traded at a $29 per ton backwardation to the three-month contract, signaling tight near-term supply. In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks climbed 5.6% to 416,425 tons, their highest level since April 2020, suggesting relatively comfortable supply conditions in China. On the production side, Norsk Hydro’s Qatalum smelter will continue operating at 60% capacity after last week’s shutdown announcement, while Century Aluminum expects to restart operations at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland by the end of April. Global output trends remain steady. According to the IAI, worldwide primary aluminium production reached 6.317 million tons in January, up from 6.239 million tons a year earlier. Meanwhile, China’s production continued its steady expansion, reaching a record 3.87 million tons in December, up 2.9% year-on-year. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 8.48% to 2,957 lots while prices declined Rs3.85. Immediate support is seen at Rs344.3, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs342.3. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs349.1, with a move above this level potentially testing Rs351.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 342.3-351.9.
* Aluminium fell as the dollar strengthened on fading prospects for more U.S. rate cuts.
* However, downside seen limited amid shipping disruption in the war-hit Middle East.
* LME aluminium stocks slipped to 445,300 tons, the lowest since July.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices moved higher, settling 1.49% up at Rs14,756, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Market sentiment has also been supported by reports that both farmers and stockists have reduced their holdings, tightening near-term supplies ahead of fresh crop arrivals. In addition, yields in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been affected by untimely rains, which has added to concerns about crop quality and availability. At the all-India level, dried turmeric production is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, the increase in output is partly offset by lower carry-forward stocks. While prices have been supported by tight supplies, the upside could remain limited as fresh arrivals in Erode are expected to increase significantly over the next 10–15 days. Meanwhile, favourable rainfall during the sowing season has encouraged farmers to expand acreage. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Unseasonal rains in August–September caused waterlogging and disease in parts of Marathwada, affecting roughly 15% of the crop area, though higher acreage may still lift Maharashtra’s production to 54 lakh bags, compared with 47.5 lakh bags last year. On the trade front, turmeric exports during April–December 2025 rose 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes, while imports during the same period fell sharply by 41.54% to 11,484 tonnes, reflecting strong overseas demand and tighter domestic supply. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest declining 1.92% to 17,070 lots while prices gained Rs216. Immediate support is seen at Rs14,446, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs14,136. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs15,068, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of Rs15,380.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14136-15380.
* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market.
* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15099.05 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices edged lower, settling 0.72% down at Rs22,140, as the arrival of the new crop began in several key mandis. Market pressure increased as fresh supplies started entering the market, with arrivals expected to pick up significantly through March. Comfortable domestic availability and subdued export demand also weighed on sentiment, as traders noted that most current export orders are being met from existing stocks. On the production front, the outlook remains mixed across major growing regions. Overall cumin production in India is estimated to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this season. In Gujarat, output is projected to fall sharply by 27% to 1.83 lakh tonnes, largely due to an 18% drop in acreage and an 11% decline in yields, partly caused by erratic weather and disease pressure such as blight. In contrast, Rajasthan’s production is expected to rise about 15% to 3.29 lakh tonnes, supported by slightly higher acreage and improved yields. Sowing in Gujarat is already reported to be 14.34% lower year-on-year, while concerns over aphid infestation in Rajasthan have also been highlighted. Meanwhile, geopolitical disruptions in producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have tightened global supply, but export demand for Indian cumin remains relatively weak. Trade data also reflects this softer demand trend. Jeera exports during April–December 2025 fell by 12.08% to 145,137 tonnes, compared with 165,084 tonnes in the same period last year. In the Unjha spot market, prices closed at Rs21,789.65, down 0.74%. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 12.45% to 5,013 lots while prices declined by Rs160. Immediate support is seen near Rs22,030, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs21,910. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs22,300, and a move above this level may lead to a test of Rs22,450.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21910-22450.
* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21789.65 Rupees dropped by -0.74 percent.
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