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Gold

Gold exhibited a positive trend, closing 0.37% higher at 60065, driven by a weakening dollar and Treasury Yields. Investors reacted positively to the unexpected slowdown in both annual and core US inflation rates for October, reinforcing the belief that the Fed may halt rate hikes. The annual inflation rate dipped to 3.2%, down from 3.7% in the preceding months, and the core rate hit a two-year low at 4%. This development fueled demand for safe haven assets, with gold benefiting as a traditional hedge. Furthermore, Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating outlook from stable to negative added to gold's appeal. The agency cited rising fiscal deficits and political standoffs in Washington as key factors. The downgrade, from Aaa to negative, was attributed to increased debt servicing expenses and entrenched political polarization, exacerbated by the sharp rise in Treasury yields. In the technical realm, the gold market experienced short covering, with a 2.03% drop in open interest, settling at 10081. Despite this, prices rose by 223 rupees. The critical support level for gold is identified at 59760, and a breach below could lead to a test of 59450. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 60355, with a potential move above indicating a test of 60640.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59450-60640.
* Gold rose amid the retreat in dollar and Treasury Yields
* Both the annual and the core inflation rates unexpectedly slowed in October
* Moody’s Cuts US Debt Outlook to Negative


Silver
Silver demonstrated robust performance, surging 2.48% to settle at 71593 as investors shifted away from the dollar amid lower-than-expected US inflation figures for October. The annual inflation rate in the US retreated to 3.2%, the lowest since July, with core inflation reaching a two-year low at 4%. The monthly headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged, defying forecasts of a 0.1% rise. This data prompted a significant sell-off of the dollar. The Federal Reserve's commitment to controlling inflation and the prospect of additional rate hikes were underscored by Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, at a Washington conference. Powell acknowledged the unpredictable nature of inflation, hinting at potential further increases in interest rates, currently at their highest in 22 years. The slowing resilience of the economy and labor market suggests the current monetary policy is becoming restrictive, adding to the anticipation of a policy shift. China's silver output, declining by 4.1% MoM and 7.1% YoY to 1,297.933 mt, contributed to the overall market dynamics. Technically, the market experienced short covering, with a substantial 31.43% drop in open interest, settling at 18539. Despite this, prices surged by 1734 rupees. The critical support level for Silver stands at 70310, with a break below potentially leading to a test of 69030. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 72350, and a move above could propel prices to test 73110.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69030-73110.
 Silver rose as investors dumped the dollar after data showed that the US inflation rate slowed more than expected in October.
* The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 3.2% in October, the lowest since July
* The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains a topic of intense focus as officials signal a commitment to taming inflation

Crude oil

Crude oil closed marginally lower, down by -0.23% at 6508, influenced by OPEC's assertion that market fundamentals remain robust, attributing the recent price decline to financial market speculators. The U.S. Energy Department reported the purchase of 1.2 million barrels of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, emphasizing the acquisition at an average price of $77.57 per barrel. OPEC, maintaining a positive outlook, held speculators responsible for the price dip, slightly adjusting its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast while retaining a relatively high prediction for 2024. Despite concerns about economic growth and demand, supported by OPEC supply cuts and Middle East conflicts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and the next. The IEA anticipates a slowdown in overall economic and oil demand growth in 2023 but notes resilience in U.S. deliveries and robust September demand from China. Expectations for 2024 hinge on anticipated interest rate cuts and recent declines in crude prices. In technical terms, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a -13.22% drop in open interest to 5127, accompanied by a -15 rupee price decline. Key support for crude oil stands at 6454, and a breach below may lead to a test of 6399. Resistance is projected at 6590, with a potential move above indicating a test of 6671.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6399-6671.
* Crude oil gains after OPEC said market fundamentals remained strong
* US buys 1.2 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve
* OPEC says oil market remains strong despite negative sentiment

Natural gas

Natural gas prices experienced a decline of -0.8% yesterday, settling at 259.9, driven by forecasts of colder weather and increased heating demand in late November. The surge in gas flow to U.S. LNG export plants, reaching record levels, contributed to this trend. Despite a rise in average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states, meteorologists project warmer-than-normal weather until Nov. 21, followed by colder temperatures from Nov. 22-28. However, the Lower 48 states are expected to see a dip in U.S. gas demand from 111.0 bcfd this week to 108.5 bcfd next week due to closures around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Notably, pipeline exports to Mexico decreased in November, while gas flows to major U.S. LNG export plants increased. Despite the anticipation of colder weather, the technical analysis reveals a market under fresh selling pressure, with a notable gain in open interest. In terms of technical indicators, open interest increased by 11.79% to 35,232, aligning with a 2.1 rupee decrease in prices. Natural gas is currently finding support at 256.1, with a potential test of 252.4 levels if this support is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 265.9, and a breakthrough could lead to a test of 272.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 252.4-272.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand
* LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November
* Meteorologists projected the weather would remain warmer than normal through Nov. 21 before turning near to colder than normal from Nov.


Copper

Copper prices edged up by 0.28% to settle at 708.15, influenced by the dollar index slipping below 105. This shift came as U.S. inflation data signaled a slowdown, reducing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The CPI report revealed a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 3.2% in October, with the core rate dropping to 4%, the lowest in over two years. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, is facing challenges, with 2023 production estimated between 1.31 and 1.35 million metric tons, toward the lower end. Operational issues and debt have delayed key projects, impacting production. However, Peru saw a 2.5% YoY increase in copper production in September, reaching 235,178 metric tons. Market sentiment reflects less than a 10% probability of the Fed raising rates beyond the current range, with increasing odds of rate cuts starting in May. Investors eagerly await U.S. producer inflation and retail sales data, anticipating insights from central bank officials. Technically, the copper market experienced short covering, with a 5.52% drop in open interest and a 1.95 rupee price increase. Support is at 704.8, with potential testing at 701.5 if breached, while resistance is expected at 711.7, with a potential move to 715.3 upon breaking that level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 701.5-715.3.
* Copper gains as dollar index slipped below the 105 mark after US inflation data
* Chile's Codelco CEO sees copper output in 2023 closing at 1.315 mln metric tons
* Peru's copper production up 2.5% in September

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 1.17% to settle at 229.7, fueled by expectations of increased demand and supply concerns. China's commitment to issuing new bonds, especially for manufacturing, contributed to the positive sentiment. Supply worries intensified with incidents like the fire at Russia's Ozernoye mine and U.S. mine suspensions, coupled with a significant decrease in LME zinc inventories since September. Nyrstar's decision to temporarily close two U.S. zinc mines due to weak prices and inflation impact added to supply uncertainties. The Chinese central bank's plan for liquidity injections without changing interest rates aligns with the country's economic recovery, despite challenges in the property market and exports. The recent fiscal stimulus of 1 trillion yuan in sovereign bonds reflects efforts to support the economy. However, concerns about sustained pressure on the yuan limit more aggressive monetary easing. Technically, the zinc market experienced fresh buying, marked by a 6.22% increase in open interest and a 2.65 rupee price gain. Support is at 227.4, with a potential test of 225.1 if breached, while resistance is expected at 231.1, with a potential move to 232.5 upon breaking that level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 225.1-232.5.
* Zinc gains amid expectations of growing demand and risks of supply
* Support also seen due to supply concerns from incidents like the fire at Russia's Ozernoye mine and recent suspensions in U.S. mines
* China cbank set to boost liquidity injection but keep rate unchanged


Aluminium

Aluminium prices experienced a slight dip of -0.19%, settling at 205.1, attributed to profit booking amidst simultaneous supply concerns and increased expectations of higher demand. China, the leading producer, imposed restrictions on production capacity expansion to curb oversupply and energy consumption. Japanese aluminium stocks decreased by 2% to 341,300 metric tons by end-October. China's aluminium exports in October saw a year-on-year decline of 8.1%, contributing to a 17.2% decrease in exports from January to October. The U.S. initiated anti-dumping investigations on aluminium extrusions from China and other countries, raising concerns among domestic manufacturers. On the demand side, China's commitment to an extra CNY 1 trillion borrowing for manufacturing and infrastructure supported aluminium resource demand. Reports also hinted at the People's Bank of China injecting an additional CNY 1 trillion to stimulate construction activity. Technically, the aluminium market witnessed fresh selling with a 4.04% increase in open interest and a marginal price decline of -0.4 rupees. Support is at 204.5, with a potential test of 203.9 if breached, while resistance is expected at 206, with a potential move to 206.9 upon breaking that level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-206.9.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after supply concerns coincided with rising bets of higher demand.
* Japan's October aluminium stocks fell 2% m/m
* China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis declined in October, but may pick up in November and December

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy's recent price increase of 1.05% to 57500 reflects the challenges faced by India's cotton industry in the 2023/24 season. The expected 7.5% decline in cotton production to 29.5 million bales is attributed to a decrease in planted area and the impact of El Nino weather conditions on productivity. This, coupled with the forecasted increase in imports to 2.2 million bales, up from last year's 1.25 million bales, as reported by the Cotton Association of India (CAI), highlights the strain on the domestic cotton supply. The global cotton market also faces changes, with the U.S. anticipating slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2023/24 indicates increased production at 13.1 million bales, while domestic mill use is lower, leading to higher ending stocks at 3.2 million bales. The global scenario sees lower consumption but higher production and stocks, with India contributing to higher beginning stocks due to a production increase in the previous season. The final estimate of India's 2022-23 crop production by the CAI is slightly higher at 31.8 million bales, contrasting with the government's third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales. Regional challenges are also evident, with north Maharashtra expecting a 25% decline in cotton production due to insufficient rainfall. In Rajkot, a major spot market, cotton prices ended at 26908 Rupees, indicating a slight drop of -0.2%. From a technical perspective, the market shows signs of fresh buying, with a 1.94% increase in open interest, settling at 105. This, combined with a price increase of 600 rupees, indicates positive momentum. Support for Cottoncandy is seen at 57500, and a move below this level could lead to a test of 57500. On the upside, resistance is expected at 57500, and a move above this level could see prices testing 57500.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57500-57500.
* Cotton gains as India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* Cotton production likely to decline by 25% in north Maha
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26908 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric faced a decline of -0.57%, settling at 13528, as buying activities slowed in anticipation of stock releases before the new crops in January 2024. Pressure mounted due to favorable weather conditions improving crop outlook, although potential yield losses from unfavorable weather limited the downside. Crop conditions remain satisfactory, ready for harvest between January and March. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts drier-than-average October, impacting crop growth. Current buying levels and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability, supported by enhanced export opportunities. Exports increased by 25% due to rising demand in both developed and emerging nations. Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding, particularly in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, result from farmers' shifting priorities. Turmeric exports during Apr-Aug 2023 rose by 11.51% to 82,939.35 tonnes, with an 18.20% drop in August compared to July and a 6.67% drop compared to August 2022. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, prices ended at 13445.65 Rupees, indicating a -0.7% decrease. Technically, the market experiences long liquidation, with a -1.25% drop in open interest to 12610. Prices decreased by -78 rupees. Turmeric finds support at 13458, with potential testing of 13388. Resistance is likely at 13628, and a move above may lead to testing 13728.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13388-13728.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of release of stocks
* Pressure also seen amid improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13445.65 Rupees dropped by -0.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices witnessed a significant decline of -3.71%, settling at 43155, driven by favorable weather conditions boosting overall sowing activities. Adequate soil moisture supports upcoming sowing, expected to remain normal. Recent price downfall triggered short covering as stockists show interest in buying. However, global demand for Indian jeera declined, with buyers preferring other origins like Syria and Turkey due to higher prices in India. Export activity is likely to stay subdued in the coming months, with Indian jeera facing challenges in competitiveness. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November adds uncertainty to market dynamics. FISS forecasts predict cumin demand exceeding 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-Aug 2023 dropped by 23.76%, reaching 69,779.04 tonnes compared to 91,529.49 tonnes in the same period in 2022. In August 2023, exports dropped by 2.61% compared to July 2023 and a significant 66.98% compared to August 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, prices ended at 45429.75 Rupees, gaining 0.04%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, witnessing a 1.58% increase in open interest to settle at 4236. Prices saw a significant drop of -1665 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 42490, and a break below could test 41830. Resistance is likely at 44350, with a move above potentially testing 45550.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 41830-45550.
* Jeera  prices dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost sowing.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 45429.75 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

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