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Gold

Gold prices surged by 0.63% to settle at 79,736, driven by uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential race, which bolstered safe-haven demand. Adding to the bullish momentum, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance, with anticipated rate cuts next week, influenced market sentiment. Despite the U.S. GDP growth at an annualized 2.8%—falling short of the expected 3%—strength in consumer spending pointed to a resilient economy. The labor market remains robust, as indicated by the ADP report on private-sector job gains, allowing the Fed to possibly delay drastic rate cuts. In physical markets, Indian gold dealers offered discounts of up to $8 an ounce due to soaring prices dampening demand before the festive season, compared to last week’s $3 premium. Similarly, Chinese dealers adjusted discounts, narrowing to $3-$14 from $15-$31, reflecting a cautious retail demand amid elevated prices and economic challenges. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported stable global gold demand at 1,176.5 metric tons in Q3, with higher investment activity balancing weaker jewelry consumption and a 49% reduction in central bank purchases. Total demand, including opaque over-the-counter trading, reached a record high of 1,313 tons, boosted by resurgent professional flows. ETFs saw inflows of 95 tons, marking the first positive quarter since early 2022, though bar and coin investments slipped by 9%. Technically, gold’s market witnessed fresh buying interest, with a 2.51% rise in open interest reaching 14,921. Prices found strong support at 79,435, with a potential test of 79,130 if breached. Resistance stands at 79,910, where a break could propel prices to 80,080, indicating strong bullish sentiment amid macroeconomic cues.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 79130-80080.
* Gold surged as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential race spurred demand for safe-haven.
* Fed policymakers are nearly certain to reduce short-term borrowing costs by a quarter-point next week
* India's gold imports, rose by 21.78 percent to $27 billion during April-September this fiscal.


Silver
Silver prices declined by 1% to settle at 97,740, pressured by a stronger dollar, which reached 104.4, nearing a three-month high of 104.6. This strength in the dollar was bolstered by signs of a resilient U.S. economy, which may limit the extent of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. GDP grew by an annualized 2.8% in Q3, marginally below the 3% forecast, while sharp increases in personal expenditures and sales highlighted strong consumer activity despite high interest rates. Additionally, ADP’s report revealed that private-sector payrolls surged by 233K in October, significantly surpassing expectations of 115K and marking the highest increase since July 2023. This robust labor market data suggests that the Fed could avoid urgent rate reductions, supporting the dollar and thereby pressuring silver prices. On the demand side, India’s silver imports have surged as industrial demand from sectors like solar panel and electronics manufacturing rises. Investors in India are increasingly viewing silver as a better hedge than gold, anticipating stronger returns. As a result, India’s silver imports for the first half of 2024 reached 4,554 tons, up dramatically from 560 tons in the same period last year, driven by a need to restock after depleted inventories in 2023. This increase is expected to support global silver prices, which are near decade-high levels. Technically, the market saw long liquidation with open interest decreasing by 4.14% to 23,090. Silver is finding support at 96,555, with potential to test the 95,375 level if downward pressure persists. Resistance is observed at 98,925, and a break above this could lead to testing the 100,115 level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 95375-100115.
* Silver dropped as dollar rose to 104.4 approaching the three-month high of 104.6.
* The US GDP expanded by an annualized 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly below market expectations of a 3% rise.
* A surge in private-sector jobs unveiled by the ADP report added to the view of a strong labor market


Crudeoil
Crude oil prices rose by 1.69% to settle at 5,764 amid reports that OPEC+ may postpone its planned production increase in December due to concerns over weak demand and rising supply. OPEC+ was scheduled to increase output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, following significant output cuts of 5.86 million bpd, or roughly 5.7% of global demand. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Energy has committed to purchasing up to 3 million barrels for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with an average buyback price of $76 per barrel – nearly $20 lower than the selling price in 2022, which helps stabilize the market. U.S. crude oil inventories showed a marginal decline of 0.515 million barrels for the week ending October 25, deviating from market forecasts of a 2.3 million-barrel increase, while gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels against an anticipated 0.6 million-barrel rise. Distillate stocks also dropped by 0.977 million barrels, lower than the expected 1.59 million-barrel drop. However, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by 0.681 million barrels, reversing a prior decrease. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook revised global oil demand growth for 2024, predicting it to reach 104.3 million bpd, down by 300,000 bpd from earlier forecasts. U.S. oil demand is forecasted at 20.5 million bpd next year, slightly below previous expectations, with production expected to peak at 13.22 million bpd in 2024, below earlier estimates. On the technical front, short-covering is evident as open interest declined by 1.94% to settle at 15,118 while prices increased by 96 rupees. Crude oil finds support at 5,694, with further downside support at 5,624. Resistance is now expected at 5,830, and a break above could lead to testing the 5,896 level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5624-5896.
* Crude oil prices rose after reports that OPEC+ could delay a planned oil production increase in December
* Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 0.515 million barrels.
* Gasoline stocks dropped by 2.7 million, against forecasts of a 0.6 million increase.


Naturalgas
Natural gas prices dropped by 0.7% to settle at 239.8 as forecasts for mild weather through mid-November, combined with a rise in output, pressured demand. With these weather conditions, utilities are expected to have injected more gas into storage, marking the second consecutive week of above-average injections, which hasn’t been seen since October 2023. Current storage levels are around 5% above the norm for this time of year. Lower 48 U.S. gas production has averaged 101.7 bcfd in October, slightly down from September's 101.8 bcfd. Daily production saw a dip to 102.2 bcfd, following an eight-week high of 103.2 bcfd just a day prior, signaling some variability in supply levels. Meteorologists anticipate warmer-than-normal temperatures through mid-November across the Lower 48, likely tempering demand. However, seasonally cooler conditions should drive up gas demand from 99.3 bcfd this week to 102.1 bcfd next week. Supporting these demand expectations, the EIA projected a new record for U.S. natural gas consumption in 2024 at 90.1 bcfd, along with an increase in LNG exports to 12.1 bcfd. US utilities reported adding 80 billion cubic feet of gas to storage as of October 18, surpassing market expectations of 61 bcf and raising total storage in the lower 48 states to 3.785 trillion cubic feet, 2.9% higher year-on-year and 4.6% above the five-year average. On the technical side, natural gas faced fresh selling with an 8.07% rise in open interest, settling at 21,481 as prices dropped by 1.7 rupees. Currently, natural gas has support at 234.4, with a potential dip to 229 if this level breaks. Resistance is seen at 244.4, and a breakout above could push prices toward 249.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 229-249.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for mild weather through at least mid-November
* Pressure also seen amid an increase in output over most of the past several days.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.7 bcfd so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September


Copper
Copper prices eased by 0.16% to close at 843.85 as market participants remained cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, while awaiting potential stimulus announcements from China, the world’s largest copper consumer. Weakening demand sentiment in China was signaled by the import premium for copper, which fell to $48 per ton, its lowest since early August. In the supply space, Chile’s copper production rose by 4.2% year-on-year to 478,035 metric tons, adding to global supply, though demand from specific sectors, such as solar and wind energy, has remained relatively strong. China’s refined copper production for September was marginally up at 1.14 million tons, reflecting steady but cautious growth in industrial activity. The global copper market registered a surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, down from July’s 73,000-ton surplus, according to the ICSG. For the first eight months of 2024, the surplus reached 535,000 metric tons, substantially higher than the 75,000 metric tons surplus during the same period last year. Imports of unwrought copper into China improved in September, rising by 15.4% month-on-month to 479,000 tons, although they remain close to year-ago levels, indicating seasonal recovery. On the technical side, copper experienced fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.23% to 7,281 as prices declined by 1.35 rupees. Current support stands at 840.7, with a potential drop to 837.4 if this level breaks. Resistance is set at 847.7, and a break above this could drive prices to test 851.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 837.4-851.4.
* Copper dropped as traders awaited China to consider rolling out further stimulus measures.
* The premium to import copper into China has also been falling and was at $48 a ton, the lowest since Aug. 5
* Chile’s copper output increased 4.2% year-on-year in the month to 478,035 metric tons.


Zinc
Zinc prices fell by 0.67% to close at 287 as LME-registered stocks rose for a third consecutive day, alleviating concerns over supply shortages. This increase in supply has been reflected in the narrowing premium for cash contracts over three-month zinc, which dropped to around $18 per ton, down from last week's high of $58. Meanwhile, weaker demand in China due to disappointing economic data, such as a steep drop in industrial profits in September, has continued to weigh on market sentiment despite stimulus efforts. In Russia, zinc producer Ozernoye is facing challenges due to sanctions impacting equipment availability, raising doubts over its capacity to reach full production output of 320,000 metric tons by 2025. This supply represents about 2.5% of projected global mined zinc, estimated at 12.86 million tons in 2025. The International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) had factored this growth into its robust supply forecast, projecting an 8.9% increase in new mining zinc supply outside China for 2025. However, uncertainty remains. In the global zinc market, the deficit widened to 66,300 metric tons in August, up from 51,000 tons in July. This deficit follows a global surplus of 127,000 tons during the first eight months of 2024, though that surplus is smaller compared to last year’s 418,000 tons. On the production side, China’s refined zinc output rose slightly in September, with additional increases anticipated in October as smelters in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hunan resume production after maintenance. Technically, zinc is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 5.39% to 2,716 while prices fell by 1.95 rupees. Zinc finds support at 285.3, with further downside at 283.5, while resistance is likely at 290.1; a break above could test the 293.1 level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 283.5-293.1.
* Zinc prices retreated after stocks in LME registered rose for a third consecutive day
* Chinese data suggesting poor demand prospects added to disappointment with economic stimulus measures
* China’s industrial profits plunged in September, registering the steepest monthly decline of the year, owing to factors including weak demand


Aluminium
Aluminium prices declined by 0.91% to close at 239.9, as robust U.S. economic indicators limited expectations of significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. While price pressure was evident, news of alumina shortages helped mitigate further downside, triggering systematic buying interest. Guinea, a key exporter, suspended alumina raw material bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) two weeks ago, heightening concerns over supply shortages. Additionally, LME data revealed significant December futures positions, with over 40% open interest to buy and a large position of 30-39% open interest to sell in January, underscoring market interest in aluminium’s future performance. Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 aluminium price forecast to $2,700 per ton, up from $2,540, anticipating stronger demand in China driven by stimulus measures. Global aluminium output also showed growth, with the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reporting a 1.3% year-on-year increase in September, totaling 6.007 million tonnes. China’s production remained resilient, reaching 3.65 million tons in September, supported by sufficient hydropower supply in Yunnan and strong operational rates. Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics further highlighted a 1.2% year-on-year production increase, with daily output reaching 121,667 tons in September. Profits per ton rose by 12.2% from August, averaging 2,379 yuan ($334.04), thanks to higher aluminium prices. From a technical perspective, the aluminium market is experiencing long liquidation, as open interest decreased by 0.7% to 3,532, and prices fell by 2.2 rupees. Aluminium currently has support at 238.4, with a potential test at 236.7 if downward pressure continues. Resistance is seen at 242.6, and a breakout above this level could see prices testing 245.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 236.7-245.1.
* Aluminium slipped amid signs of resilience in the US economy tempered expectations for aggressive Fed interest rate cuts.
* LME data showed one large futures position at more than 40% of open interest to buy aluminium in December.
* Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 aluminum price forecasts citing higher demand potential in top consumer China following stimulus measures.


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices dipped by 0.14% to 55,930, driven by weak demand in yarn markets and payment delays. The USDA recently adjusted India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season down to 30.72 million bales, with ending stocks lowered to 12.38 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues. Globally, USDA raised production estimates by 200,000 bales with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting declines in the US and Spain. In India, cotton acreage has fallen by 9% to 110.49 lakh hectares from 121.24 lakh hectares last year, as farmers in Gujarat, India’s largest cotton-producing state, shifted to groundnuts, which provided better returns. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) forecasts a 7.4% decline in production to 30.2 million bales, with imports expected to increase to 2.5 million bales, up from 1.75 million last year, while exports are likely to drop to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million. The US cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows a reduction in production, mill use, and exports due to Hurricane Helene’s damage, with ending stocks revised upwards to 4.1 million bales. On the global front, world production rose by over 200,000 bales, though weaker import demand, particularly from China, led to a reduction in world trade by 500,000 bales. Technically, Cottoncandy remains under selling pressure as open interest gained by 0.68% to 149, with prices declining by 80 rupees. Currently, support stands at 55,820, with further downside potential to 55,710 if this level breaks. Resistance is seen at 56,020, and a move above this could test the 56,110 level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55710-56110.
* Cotton dropped as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago to 30.2 million bales.
* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined by 0.44% to settle at 13,120 amid lower demand and rising arrivals, though downside pressure was limited due to reports of crop damage from heavy rains. The impact of adverse weather conditions on the turmeric crop is likely greater than initially anticipated, which may support prices in the future. Pressure on prices is also due to an expected increase in acreage for the upcoming season, projected at 30-35% higher than last year, suggesting a boost in production. Recent rainfall of 20 mm in the Vidarbha region and 18 mm in Telangana has further benefited crop growth, although supply remains tight. Meanwhile, increased sowing on the Erode line, along with similar increases in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, could weigh on prices as more supply enters the market. Turmeric sowing in India is estimated to have expanded from 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year to 3.75-4 lakh hectares in 2024. This season’s estimated production could reach 70-75 lakh bags, up from last year’s 45-50 lakh bags, though the outstanding stock remains near zero, which might keep turmeric availability lower than consumption in 2025. Export demand has softened, with April-August 2024 exports down 6.46% year-on-year. Imports during this period surged by 340.21% as lower domestic production drove import demand. In Nizamabad, a major turmeric spot market, prices dropped 0.97% to 13,775. Technically, turmeric is experiencing long liquidation, as open interest fell by 0.42% to 11,720 alongside a price decrease of 58 rupees. Turmeric finds support at 13,042, with further downside at 12,964, while resistance stands at 13,224; a move above this could see prices testing 13,328.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12964-13328.
* Turmeric prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* Pressure also seen as the expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year
* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13775 Rupees dropped by -0.97 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices declined by 0.49% to settle at 24,160 as arrivals increased, with 15,000-16,000 bags of cumin reaching Unjha daily. Farmers reportedly retain about 35% of the season’s stock, and the carryover stock at the beginning of the new season is estimated to be around 20 lakh bags. Exports are anticipated to rise post-Diwali, with 15,000 to 17,000 tons expected for export in October alone. This increase in exports is expected to continue through November-December. However, cumin sowing, set to begin after Diwali, is predicted to decline this year, with production estimated to decrease by about 10%, and Rajasthan’s cultivation expected to drop by 10-15%. India remains the primary supplier of cumin globally due to competitive pricing, with Indian cumin priced at $3,050 per tonne, $200 to $250 cheaper than Chinese cumin, making India the most attractive option for international buyers. The Middle East tensions over the past two months have driven demand for cumin exports from Gujarat, and according to FISS data, cumin exports from July to September reached 52,022 MT, marking a 128% increase from last year. Technically, Jeera is under long liquidation, as open interest declined by 1.05% to 1,695 while prices dropped by 120 rupees. Currently, support for Jeera lies at 23,880, with further downside potential toward 23,610 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is positioned at 24,390, and a breakout above could see prices testing 24,630.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23610-24630.
* Jeera dropped  as arrival has increased and on an average, 15,000 to 16,000 bags of cumin are coming daily in Unjha.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24992.9 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

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