IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.43% to settle at 85,055, supported by a weaker dollar and escalating trade war fears. U.S. President Donald Trump's directive for reciprocal tariffs on countries imposing taxes on U.S. imports fueled concerns over inflation, boosting safe-haven demand for gold. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report helped ease some inflation concerns after a stronger-than-expected consumer price report. Meanwhile, gold reserves in London vaults declined by 1.7% to 8,535 metric tons at the end of January, according to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Demand for gold in India fell after prices hit record highs, dampening retail purchases and forcing dealers to offer discounts of up to $26 per ounce. Additionally, gold leasing rates in India surged due to global supply constraints as banks diverted metal to the U.S. In China, gold traded at par with spot prices or at a discount of $18 per ounce, while in Japan, discounts ranged from $6 to $0.50. Hong Kong dealers charged premiums of up to $2 per ounce. The World Gold Council (WGC) expects India's gold consumption in 2025 to moderate to 700-800 metric tons, compared to last year’s nine-year peak of 802.8 tons, as high prices dampen jewelry demand but boost investment in ETFs, digital gold, and coins. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising by 2.17% to 15,718 contracts while prices gained Rs 368. Gold has support at 84,765, with a break below testing 84,475. Resistance is at 85,300, and a move above could push prices toward 85,545.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 84475-85545.
* Gold prices rose supported by a weaker dollar and fears of an impending trade war.
* Trump directed his economic team to formulate plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country that imposes taxes on U.S. imports.
* Uncertainty over the Trump administration's policies on trade, tariffs and broader foreign policy continues to support bullion.

Silver

Silver prices edged down by -0.01% to settle at 95,580, as profit booking emerged following optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and delays in U.S. reciprocal tariffs. The unexpected rebound in the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January improved the outlook for U.S. factory demand, supporting industrial metals. Additionally, China installed 357 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity in 2024, a major driver of industrial silver demand. India’s ONGC and Indonesia also announced significant investments in solar energy, further strengthening silver’s long-term industrial outlook. The Silver Institute projected a fifth consecutive year of market deficits in 2025, driven by robust industrial and retail investment demand. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported a sharp 8.6% decline in silver stocks held in London vaults, the largest drop since records began in 2016. Global silver demand in 2025 is expected to remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, with industrial fabrication forecast to grow by 3% and surpass 700 million ounces for the first time. However, jewelry demand is set to decline by 6%, largely due to weaker Indian consumption amid high domestic prices. Meanwhile, total silver supply is projected to rise by 3% to an 11-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, supported by increased mine production and recycling. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 5.72% to 19,344 contracts while prices declined by Rs 6. Silver has support at 94,995, with a break below testing 94,415. Resistance is at 96,050, and a move above could push prices toward 96,525.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 94415-96525.
* Silver dropped on profit booking amid growing optimism about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
* The unexpected rebound in the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January improved the outlook for US factory demand.
* Data showed that China put up 357 gigawatts of solar and wind power in 2024, among the main uses of industrial silver.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 0.8% to settle at Rs 6,198, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and reduced oil flows via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) after a drone attack on Russia’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station. OPEC+ is considering delaying its planned supply increases from April, citing fragile market conditions, despite pressure from the U.S. to lower prices. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that Russian oil exports might continue despite new U.S. sanctions. Global oil demand has surged to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), increasing by 1.4 million bpd year-on-year, according to JPMorgan. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels to 427.9 million barrels last week, surpassing the expected 3 million-barrel increase. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 872,000 barrels, while refinery crude runs and utilization rates increased. Gasoline stocks fell by 3 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a 1.4 million-barrel build, while distillate inventories rose slightly by 0.1 million barrels against an expected 1.5 million-barrel decline. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production in 2025 to 13.59 million bpd, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd. Technically, the market saw short covering, with open interest declining by 14% to 10,584 contracts while prices rose by Rs 49. Crude oil has support at Rs 6,150, with a break below testing Rs 6,103. Resistance is at Rs 6,226, and a move above could push prices toward Rs 6,255.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6103-6255.
* Crude oil prices received support from a weaker U.S. dollar and reduced oil flows via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
* Oil producer group OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April
* Ukraine peace talks could pave way for Russia sanctions easing

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell by 3.55% to settle at Rs 312.3, as traders booked profits following recent gains driven by increased LNG export flows, lower daily output, and forecasts of colder weather boosting heating demand. U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 105.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January. However, extreme cold caused freeze-offs, reducing output by 3.2 bcfd over the past eight days to a three-week low of 103.6 bcfd. U.S. utilities withdrew 100 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage in the week ending February 7, surpassing market expectations of 92 bcf due to record-high heating demand. The sharpest declines were in the Midwest (-46 bcf) and East (-39 bcf), bringing total inventories to 2,297 bcf—9.7% lower than last year and 2.8% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, the EIA projects U.S. dry gas production will rise from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 to 104.6 bcfd in 2025 and 107.3 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to peak at 90.7 bcfd in 2025 before easing. LNG exports are forecasted to reach 14.0 bcfd in 2025 and 16.2 bcfd in 2026, up from 12.0 bcfd in 2024. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 24.4% to 12,942 contracts while prices declined by Rs 11.5. Natural gas has support at Rs 308.4, with a break below testing Rs 304.6. Resistance is at Rs 316.7, and a move above could push prices toward Rs 321.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 304.6-321.2.
* Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices gained on rising flows to LNG export plants
* Freezing wells cut US output over past week.
* US gas production still on track for record high in February


Copper

Copper prices closed marginally lower by 0.01% at Rs 864.8 as fears over potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports eased. Former President Donald Trump indicated that copper tariffs would take longer to implement compared to aluminum and steel, calming immediate market worries. Meanwhile, China has imposed restrictions on copper smelting to address excess capacity, which has led to higher copper imports and falling inventories. Despite this, smelting firms continue to struggle with profitability. In global markets, the cash LME copper contract briefly spiked to a $249 per ton premium over three-month futures before flipping to a $50 discount. The COMEX copper premium over LME rose to $1,002 per ton from $913. In Peru, copper production in 2024 declined by 0.7% to 2.73 million metric tons, marking the first drop in output after four years of post-pandemic recovery. Production is expected to remain stable at 2.8 million metric tons in 2024 and 2025 due to declining ore grades and limited new projects. Meanwhile, PT Freeport Indonesia has cut mining operations to 60% capacity due to rising stockpiles, while its new smelter undergoes repairs. The global refined copper market showed a 131,000 metric tons deficit in November, up from 30,000 metric tons in October, highlighting tightening supply conditions. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 10.86% to 4,738 contracts. Copper has support at ?860.7, with a break below testing ?856.4, while resistance is at ?870.1, and a move above could push prices toward ?875.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 856.4-875.2.
* Copper fell as concerns about potential US tariffs on copper imports eased.
* Peru copper output edges down in 2024 to 2.74 million tonnes
* Freeport Indonesia reduces copper ore mining to 60% capacity

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 0.68% higher at Rs 268.25 as concerns over U.S. import tariffs eased following former President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which are not set for immediate implementation. Despite a sharp 70.5% increase in zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, improved demand prospects in China and a weaker dollar supported prices. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reinforced its commitment to economic stability, signaling further policy adjustments and monetary easing to counter weak domestic demand and external pressures. New bank loans in China surged to record highs in January, boosting expectations for continued stimulus. On the supply side, global mined zinc production declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, with China’s refined zinc output dropping 7% due to lower processing rates. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, which accounts for 10% of global zinc output, is expected to reduce production in 2025 as it nears ore depletion. Meanwhile, global zinc market deficits narrowed to 52,900 metric tons in November from 65,400 tons in October, according to ILZSG data. However, the first 11 months of 2024 recorded a 33,000-ton deficit, reversing a 312,000-ton surplus from 2023. Domestically, China’s refined zinc production increased 1% MoM in January but fell nearly 8% YoY. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 4.54% to 2,356 contracts. Zinc has support at Rs 266.5, with further downside possible at Rs 264.8. Resistance is at Rs 269.3, with a breakout potentially pushing prices to Rs 270.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 264.8-270.4.
* Zinc gains after U.S. President Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs, which will not be immediately implemented.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 70.5% from last Friday, the exchange said.
* PBOC said in its fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report that it would adjust policy.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.17% higher at Rs 258.4, supported by supply tightness and expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs would not take effect until April. However, the upside remained limited due to post-holiday inventory buildup. Aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped 4.9% from last Friday. Meanwhile, Japan’s bargaining power in aluminium premium negotiations weakened amid slow imports and the sale of overseas smelter holdings. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reaffirmed its commitment to economic stability, planning to use various monetary tools, including interest rate adjustments, to counter weak domestic demand and external risks. In 2024, China’s aluminium production hit a record 44 million tons, approaching the 45 million-ton cap set by the government to curb oversupply and control emissions. Despite rising supply, U.S. aluminium premiums surged 60% since Trump’s re-election in November, reaching 35 cents per pound. China’s aluminium production increased 4.2% YoY to 3.77 million metric tons in December, though daily output declined 1.7% from November. New capacity additions in Xinjiang contributed to higher output, but higher costs pushed the industry into losses for the first time in three years, with producers averaging a loss of 687 yuan per ton. Technically, the market saw short covering, with open interest dropping 7.57% to 2,355 contracts. Aluminium has support at ?257.2, with further downside at ?256. Resistance is at ?259.2, with a breakout potentially pushing prices to ?260.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 256-260.
* Aluminium prices gains helped by supply tightness
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped -4.9%
* Japan aluminium premiums likely to stay high, adding to inflation

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices settled 0.28% higher at Rs 54,150 as the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is expected to procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) in the current season. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) projects overall cotton output for 2024-25 to drop to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yields in Gujarat and northern states, compared to 327.45 lakh bales in the previous season. Despite the decline in production, the quality of cotton remains strong. By the end of January 2025, total cotton supply is estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, including 188.07 lakh bales of fresh pressings, 16 lakh bales of imports, and 30.19 lakh bales of opening stock. Domestic consumption is projected at 315 lakh bales for the season, while exports are expected to decline to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales in 2023-24. Stocks at the end of January are estimated at 112.26 lakh bales, with 27 lakh bales held by textile mills and 85.26 lakh bales with CCI and other market participants. Globally, Brazil’s cotton production for 2024-25 is expected to rise by 1.6% to 3.76 million tons, with a 4.8% expansion in planting area. Meanwhile, China’s cotton production is projected to increase by one million bales. Technically, the market remains in short covering, with open interest unchanged at 258 contracts. Cottoncandy has support at Rs 54,150, while resistance is also seen at the same level. A breakout above could push prices higher.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 54150-54150.
* Cotton gains as CCI is likely to buy more than 100 lakh bales of cotton at MSP during the current cotton year.
* CAI said the overall cotton output is estimated to dip to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yield in Gujarat and the northern region.
* Brazil’s 2024-25 cotton production is projected to be 1.6 per cent higher.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25636.75 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric fell by 1.19% to Rs 12,634 as weak demand and increased arrivals exerted pressure on prices. With harvesting in progress, maximum crop arrivals are expected within a month, keeping prices under pressure. However, the downside remains limited as new crop yields are estimated to be 10-15% lower this year, particularly in the Nanded region, where small rhizomes and crop rots have affected output. Farmers also anticipate lower-than-expected yields, making the progress of harvesting crucial for future price trends. Arrivals surged significantly to 13,190 bags from 6,780 bags in the previous session, mainly from Nizamabad and Hingoli. Higher arrivals are likely to continue, adding further pressure on prices. On the trade front, turmeric exports jumped 9.80% YoY to 121,601.21 tonnes between April and November 2024, compared to 110,745.34 tonnes in the same period last year. However, November 2024 exports dropped 20.18% from October 2024, but still showed a 48.22% increase YoY. Meanwhile, imports rose sharply by 101.80% YoY to 18,937.95 tonnes in April-November 2024, though November imports declined 34.84% from October 2024. Turmeric remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 0.47% to 11,705 lots, indicating increased short positions. Support is at Rs 12,518, with a break below potentially leading to Rs 12,400. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 12,766, and a move above could push prices towards Rs 12,896.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12400-12896.
* Turmeric prices dropped on weak demand and marginal improvement in arrivals.
* New crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year.
* Farmers have indicated that the yield may be lower than expected.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12995.45 Rupees gained by 0.51 percent.

Jeera

Jeera rose by 3.56% to Rs 21,805 as the start of the new crop in Gujarat has been delayed by a month due to unfavourable weather conditions. Sowing in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan was also postponed, limiting fresh arrivals. However, the upside remains restricted as overall demand is sluggish, and export orders are being fulfilled from existing stocks. Farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the season's end, leaving a carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. India’s cumin seed production rose to 8.6 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 from 5.77 lakh tonnes in the previous year, backed by improved crop conditions and a larger sowing area of 11.87 lakh ha compared to 9.37 lakh ha last year. Indian cumin remains the cheapest globally, priced at $3,050 per tonne, while Chinese cumin is $200-$250 higher, boosting India's export potential. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven strong demand, particularly from Europe and other regions ahead of the festive season. Jeera exports surged 74.04% YoY to 1,47,006.20 tonnes during April-November 2024, compared to 84,467.16 tonnes last year. However, November exports fell 28.92% from October 2024, though they still marked a 42.67% YoY rise. The market is experiencing short covering, as open interest dropped 5.58% to 2,589 lots, while prices surged Rs 750. Support is at Rs 21,430, with a break below leading to Rs 21,050. Resistance is at Rs 22,030, with a potential upside to Rs 22,250.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21050-22250.
* Jeera gained as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has also been delayed by about a month.
* Due to unfavourable weather, this time the start of sowing of cumin was delayed by about a month.
* However upside seen limited as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21887.85 Rupees dropped by -0.38 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views