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Gold

Gold prices settled up by 0.12% at Rs 88,706, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, encouraging investors to stick with gold as a safe-haven asset. Hopes for ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine added some downside pressure, but uncertainty remains high. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, yet markets are pricing in 66 basis points of rate cuts this year — with July seen as the likely starting point. This dovish outlook supports gold, which typically benefits from lower interest rates. China’s gold market remains strong, fueled by record ETF inflows and central bank purchases — now at a historic 2,290 tons, representing 5.9% of its foreign reserves. Meanwhile, India, traditionally a major gold consumer, is witnessing a significant slowdown. Domestic gold prices hit record highs, leading to widened discounts — up to $39 per ounce — as demand wanes. Indian gold imports are projected to plummet 85% in February, marking a 20-year low. The World Gold Council (WGC) expects India’s total gold consumption in 2025 to moderate between 700-800 metric tons, down from 802.8 tons in 2024, driven mainly by weak jewelry demand — which accounts for 70% of consumption — though investment demand remains resilient through ETFs, digital gold, and coins. Technically, gold is in short covering, evidenced by a 6.41% drop in open interest to 12,413 lots, while prices edged Rs 104 higher. Support is seen at Rs 88,105, with a break below potentially testing Rs 87,505. On the upside, resistance is marked at Rs 89,550, and a push above could lead prices towards Rs 90,395.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 87505-90395.
* Gold gained as uncertainty about growth and geopolitical tensions continued to prompt investors to seek the safe-haven
* The potential for further progress on ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine is also adding pressure.
* The U.S. central bank left its key interest rate unchanged but the Fed is still expected to deliver rate cuts by the end of this year.

Silver

Silver prices settled down by -0.53% at Rs 99,392, driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts this year. The Fed maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50%, projecting two quarter-point cuts later in 2024, despite expectations of slower growth and higher inflation. This cautious outlook, combined with uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, pressured silver prices. Adding to the bearish sentiment, Comex silver inventories hit a record high of 403.2 million ounces, reflecting increased storage amid weaker demand. On the supply side, Hecla Mining, the largest U.S. silver producer, reported a 13% rise in output to 16.2 million ounces — its second-highest annual production in 134 years. Looking ahead to 2025, the silver market is projected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year, though the shortfall is expected to shrink by 19% to 149 million ounces. Global silver demand is forecast to stay steady at 1.2 billion ounces, with industrial fabrication rising 3% to surpass 700 million ounces for the first time — driven by green energy applications. Physical investment is expected to climb 3%, supported by European and North American demand. However, jewelry demand, especially in India, is set to decline 6% due to high local prices. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest falling -6.39% to 21,071 lots while prices dropped Rs 532. Support is seen at Rs 98,355, with a break below testing Rs 97,315. Resistance is now at Rs 1,00,600, and a move above could push prices toward Rs 1,01,805.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 97315-101805.
* Silver dropped as the dollar rose after Fed indicated it was in no rush to cut rates.
* U.S. policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year
* The Fed also said it will slow the ongoing drawdown of its $6.81 trillion balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose 1.29%, settling at Rs 5,897, driven by signs of strong U.S. demand, which outweighed OPEC+ supply concerns and China's weaker import data. The geopolitical landscape added an interesting twist — Ukrainian President Zelensky's agreement to a partial ceasefire with Russia, brokered through U.S. President Donald Trump, introduced a sense of optimism. OPEC's latest report showed China's 2024 oil demand at 16.68 million bpd, marking an increase of 320,000 bpd from 2023, though imports dropped 2.1% to 11.04 million bpd, signaling potential softness. The IEA provided a more conservative take, estimating China's 2024 oil product demand growth at 151,000 bpd, with 2025 forecasts pegged at 228,000 bpd — lower than OPEC's optimistic 310,000 bpd projection. U.S. crude inventories increased by 1.745 million barrels (exceeding forecasts of 1.1 million barrels), while Cushing stockpiles dropped by 1.009 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.527 million barrels — less than expected — and distillates saw a larger-than-anticipated draw of 2.812 million barrels. The IEA warned of a potential 600,000 bpd surplus in 2025, which could balloon by 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ extends production hikes or fails to adhere to quotas. Technically, crude oil is experiencing short covering, reflected by a 6.82% drop in open interest to 5,270 lots, while prices climbed Rs 75. Support is seen at Rs 5,815, with a break potentially leading to Rs 5,734. On the upside, resistance is at Rs 5,943, with a push higher targeting Rs 5,990.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5734-5990.
* Crude oil gained as signs of strong demand in the U.S. outweighed OPEC+ supply and demand concerns.
* OPEC said that China's oil demand was 16.68 mbpd in 2024, a rise of 320,000 bpd from the 16.36 mbpd.
* OPEC's latest report forecasts that China's oil demand will rise by 310,000 bpd in 2025.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices plunged -4.72%, settling at Rs 345.2, pressured by milder weather forecasts and weaker demand for the coming week. This shift is expected to limit gas withdrawals from storage, contributing to the bearish sentiment. However, storage remains 11% below seasonal norms, reflecting the lasting impact of January and February’s extreme cold, which triggered record withdrawals, particularly in January. Production remains strong, with Lower 48 states output averaging 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, surpassing February’s record of 105.1 bcfd. Still, a 2.4 bcfd decline over the past three days — hitting a three-week low of 104.4 bcfd — hints at supply fluctuations that could temper the bearish momentum. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record production for 2025, forecasting 104.6 bcfd, up from 103.1 bcfd in 2024. Consumption is expected to climb to 90.7 bcfd in 2025, before easing in 2026. Storage levels remain tight, with U.S. utilities withdrawing 62 bcf for the week ending March 7, leaving inventories at 1,698 bcf — 27% lower than last year and 11.9% below the five-year average, supporting a potential rebound if demand spikes or production stumbles. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling, reflected in an 11.25% rise in open interest to 13,004 lots, reinforcing the bearish pressure. Support now holds at Rs 337.2, with a deeper pullback possibly testing Rs 329.1. Resistance stands at Rs 359.9, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs 374.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 329.1-374.5.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected.
* Gas stockpiles, were still around 11% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold weather in January
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March.


Copper

Copper prices edged down -0.31%, settling at Rs 907.4, pressured by rising supply data and trade concerns. China’s refined copper production increased 3.7% year-on-year in January-February, reaching 2.3 million metric tons, with daily output averaging 38,983 tons — signaling robust production. Meanwhile, China's copper stocks climbed toward the 270,000-tonne mark, nearly three times the levels seen at the start of the year, reflecting a buildup driven by expanded domestic smelting capacity. U.S. market dynamics added further volatility. The Comex copper premium soared to a record $1,342 per ton, settling around $1,319, fueled by ongoing tariff investigations. U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products, coupled with the prospect of new copper tariffs, have drawn more copper into the U.S., tightening Comex stocks by 7.5% to 93,154 tons. Meanwhile, LME copper stocks dropped to 223,275 tons, their lowest since July, signaling ongoing outflows. Global supply data showed Chile’s copper output dipped 2.1% in January to 426,889 metric tons, while the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 22,000-ton deficit in December — narrowing from 124,000 tons in November. Despite this, the full-year balance ended in 301,000-ton surplus, reflecting a supply recovery compared to 2023’s deficit. Technically, market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest plunging -12.59% to 4,013 lots, signaling weakening bullish positions. Support stands at Rs 903.5, with a further drop potentially testing Rs 899.6. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 913.4, and a break above could push prices toward Rs 919.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 899.6-919.4.
* Copper prices dropped after China's January – February refined copper output up 3.7%
* Comex copper stocks are down 7.5% since mid-February to 93,154 tons.
* The copper stocks in the LME-registered warehouses are at 223,275 metric tons, their lowest since mid-July.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled down -0.22% at Rs 275.35, driven by increased production willingness among China’s smelters. However, losses were limited following Nyrstar's announcement of a 25% production cut at its Hobart operations in Australia from April due to financial strain from rising costs and negative treatment charges. The Hobart smelter, with a 260,000 metric tons annual capacity, is a key player in global supply, and the cut supported prices from further decline. Adding to supply pressure, LME on-warrant stocks fell to 94,700 tons, their lowest since November 2023, after 42,575 tons of fresh cancellations. Global mined zinc production declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, consistent with a 7% drop in China’s refined zinc output. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, accounting for 10% of global zinc supply, is also expected to slow in 2025 due to ore depletion. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported the global zinc market swung to a 62,000-ton deficit in 2024, reversing the 310,000-ton surplus from 2023, driven by reduced production in China, Japan, South Korea, and Peru. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc production in February 2025 fell 8% MoM and 4% YoY, with cumulative January-February output down 6% YoY. March production, is expected to rise over 13% MoM, driven by resumed operations post-maintenance and Chinese New Year shutdowns. Technically, the market remains in long liquidation, with open interest dropping -12.33% to 1,536 lots. Support is at Rs 274, with a potential test of Rs 272.7. Resistance is seen at Rs 276.8, and a break above could push prices toward Rs 278.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.7-278.3.
* Zinc dropped as China’s zinc smelters are more willing to increase production.
* However downside seen limited after Nyrstar announced 25% production cuts
* China's January – February zinc output up 1.8%


Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled lower by -0.34% at Rs 261.55, driven by improved raw material availability. Major alumina producers in Guinea, Australia, and China expanded capacity, easing supply constraints from last year’s disruptions. China's record output of 44 million tons in 2024 faces production limits, with the 45-million-ton cap from 2017 still in place to curb oversupply and meet carbon emission targets. Trade data further supported price stability, showing muted exports from China after the removal of tax rebates, redirecting more aluminium to domestic markets and lifting foreign benchmark prices. China's aluminium output for February 2025 increased 0.4% YoY, but dropped 95,000 tons MoM, reflecting production recovery at previously curtailed plants and the ramp-up of replacement projects. JP Morgan forecasts a 600,000-ton deficit in the global aluminium market by 2025, citing supply growth slowdowns similar to China’s recent struggles. January’s global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% YoY to 6.252 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Meanwhile, China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products grew 17% YoY in the first 10 months of 2024, hitting 5.5 million tons, while January-February production climbed 2.6% YoY to 7.32 million tons on stronger smelter profitability driven by falling alumina prices. Technically, aluminium remains in long liquidation, with open interest down -7.68% to 2,199 lots. Support is at Rs 260.6, with a break lower testing Rs 259.5. Resistance is at Rs 263.5, and a move above may push prices toward Rs 265.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 259.5-265.3.
* Aluminium prices dropped amid the improved availability for raw materials.
* Major alumina producers in Guinea, Australia, and China added new capacity to recover from series of disruptions last year.
* Global aluminium output falls 0.9% year on year in February – IAI

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices rose by 0.58%, closing at Rs 53,350, supported by a reduction in India’s 2024-25 cotton crop estimate by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) to 295.30 lakh bales, down 2% from the earlier projection of 301.75 lakh bales. This decline stems from lower-than-expected yields in central India, with notable reductions in Gujarat (4 lakh bales) and Maharashtra (3 lakh bales), though Odisha saw a minor increase of 0.55 lakh bales. The government’s second advance estimate similarly revised the crop forecast to 294.25 lakh bales — 1.5% lower than the previous figure. Despite higher imports projected to double to 32 lakh bales from 15.2 lakh bales last season, exports are forecasted to drop 40% to 17 lakh bales, reflecting weaker global demand. Domestic consumption remains steady at 315 lakh bales, with February-end consumption reaching 142 lakh bales. Ending stocks are predicted to shrink to 23.49 lakh bales — a notable drop from 30.19 lakh bales last season, signaling tighter supplies by September 2025. Globally, Brazil’s cotton production is projected to rise 1.6% to 3.76 million tons, driven by a 4.8% expansion in planting area. The U.S. balance sheet saw minor adjustments, with domestic mill use reduced by 100,000 bales and ending stocks increased by the same, setting an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 39%. Technically, the market showed short covering, with open interest falling -14.37% to 149 lots while prices rose by Rs 310. Support is seen at Rs 53,000, with a potential retest at Rs 52,650. Resistance lies at Rs 53,600, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs 53,850.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52650-53850.
* Cotton gains as CAI has further reduced its 2024-25 crop estimate by 2 per cent to 295.30 lakh bales
* However downside seen limited due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.
* Mills are well-stocked and are not facing immediate purchasing requirements.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25638.1 Rupees dropped by -0.16 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric surged 2.56% to Rs 13,074, driven by lower-than-expected arrivals and strong buying interest amid supply constraints. Positive export trends further supported the price rally, with exports hitting a four-year high in the latter half of 2024, surpassing 2020's peak of 1.75 lakh tonnes. The market also responded to lower crop yield forecasts, particularly from the Nanded region, where small rhizomes and crop rots impacted productivity. Although the turmeric sown area increased 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares from 3 lakh hectares last season, untimely rains are expected to counteract yield gains, keeping production levels flat or fluctuating by 3-5% from last year’s 10.75 lakh tonnes. On the export front, demand remained robust, with April-December 2024 shipments rising 13% to 1,36,921 tonnes, compared to 1,21,170 tonnes in the same period of 2023. Notably, December 2024 exports jumped 46.94% year-on-year to 15,319.82 tonnes. Imports, however, showed a contrasting trend — despite an 84.35% overall rise in 2024 (reaching 19,644.14 tonnes), December imports fell 44.69% to 703.19 tonnes, reflecting domestic supply sufficiency. In Nizamabad, a major turmeric market, spot prices rose 1.82% to Rs 12,998, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Technically, turmeric remains under short covering, evidenced by a 7.19% decline in open interest to 11,360 lots. Support is at Rs 12,720, with a further slide potentially testing Rs 12,364. On the upside, resistance stands at Rs 13,316, and a breakout above this could propel prices towards Rs 13,556.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12364-13556.
* Turmeric gained as lower-than-expected arrivals restricted supplies, leading to strong buying interest.
* Strong demand supported by positive export trends lifted prices in key trading hubs.
* Meanwhile, exports continued to pick up in the second half of 2024, with shipments reaching a four-year high.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12998 Rupees gained by 1.82 percent.

Jeera

Jeera rose 1.1% to Rs 21,685, supported by domestic demand and export activity, particularly from Gulf countries. Tight near-term supplies due to limited arrivals from Rajasthan and a delayed new crop in Gujarat added to the upward price pressure. However, the upside remains capped as demand softens and the current export business is largely fulfilled from existing stockpiles. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by season-end, leaving a carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags — a factor that might limit sharp price hikes. Production remains steady, with India’s 2023-24 cumin output rising to 8.6 lakh tonnes from an area of 11.87 lakh hectares, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares the previous year, according to Spices Board data. India’s cumin is currently the cheapest globally, priced at $3,050 per tonne, $200-$250 lower than Chinese cumin, attracting major buyers — including China — to India. Jeera exports surged 70.72% between April-December 2024, hitting 1,65,084 tonnes compared to 96,701 tonnes in 2023. December exports jumped 47.77% year-on-year to 18,078 tonnes, reflecting strong international appetite, driven by festive season demand from Europe and other regions. Technically, jeera is under fresh buying, evidenced by a 6.85% rise in open interest to 3,510 lots. Support is seen at Rs 21,510, with a break below possibly testing Rs 21,330. On the upside, resistance stands at Rs 21,810, and a move beyond this could push prices toward Rs 21,930.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21330-21930.
* Jeera gained amid price support from domestic demand, as well as export activity from Gulf countries.
* Supply trends remain crucial, as near-term supplies remain tight due to limited arrivals from Rajasthan.
* The start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21493.85 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.

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