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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.9% at 114,891, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions and fresh US tariffs that bolstered safe-haven demand. The US administration’s plans to impose aggressive tariffs on patented pharmaceutical goods and other medical equipment revived concerns over restrictive trade policies. Bullion also gained after the US struck a more hawkish stance against Russia, indicating that Ukraine could regain territory lost during the ongoing conflict. Additionally, persistent concerns over US Treasury debt issuance and potential risks to the Fed’s autonomy fueled global demand for gold, prompting the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to continue accumulating bullion and offer custody services to foreign holders. However, gains were moderated by stronger US economic data, including accelerated personal spending, higher incomes, and lower unemployment claims, which paused the rally temporarily. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell sharply by 39.11% in August to 26.746 metric tons from 43.923 tons in July, indicating weaker physical demand. Despite this, steady buying continued in other major Asian hubs. Dealers in China widened discounts to $31–$71 per ounce, while Indian premiums held at up to $7 per ounce, the highest since November 2024.  Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 6.45% to 14,168 contracts. Gold is finding support at 114,095, with a further downside test possible at 113,300 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 115,380, and a sustained move above could push prices toward 115,870.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 113300-115870.

* Gold gains as fresh US tariffs and renewed geopolitical tensions keep safe-haven demand underpinned.

* The US Presidential administration reignited concerns of restrictive trade policy.

* Physical gold demand in China weakened further, with discounts hitting multi-year lows.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled sharply higher by 3.53% at 141889 as expectations of lower real interest rates and tightening supply conditions underpinned sentiment. The latest US PCE report showed inflationary pressures remained contained, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates further this year. This reinforced demand for non-yielding assets like silver, as reduced carrying costs support investor appetite. Meanwhile, personal spending in the US rose by 0.6% in August, beating forecasts and signaling steady economic momentum. On the supply-demand side, industrial consumption continues to be robust, led by solar, electric vehicles, and electronics fabrication, keeping usage above 700 Moz annually. However, production growth remains constrained as silver is primarily mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc, leaving output near 844 Moz in 2025 and maintaining a large structural deficit. The Silver Institute projects a fifth straight annual deficit this year, with demand outpacing supply by more than 100 Moz. ETP inflows were also strong, with 95 Moz added in H1 2025, taking total holdings to 1.13 Boz, close to historic highs. Regionally, retail investment in India rose 7% YoY, while Europe continued to recover, though from a low base. Technically, silver is under short covering as open interest dropped -3.84% to 16751 while prices rose by 4833 rupees. Support is now placed at 138200, below which a test of 134510 is possible, while resistance is seen at 143885, and a break above could take prices toward 145880.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 134510-145880.

* Silver rose as expectations of lower real interest rates and tightening physical availability collided.

* The latest PCE report showed inflationary pressures remained stable and reinforced the view that the Fed has room to cut rates.

* Industrial consumption remains robust with solar electric vehicle and electronics fabrication driving total industrial use above 700 Moz and still rising.

Crude Oil

Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 1.04% at 5833 as geopolitical and supply-side developments supported prices. Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure prompted Moscow to impose a partial ban on diesel exports until year-end while extending its gasoline export ban, tightening global fuel availability. At the same time, crude flows from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey are set to resume after 2.5 years, potentially adding 180,000–190,000 barrels per day through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. U.S. inventory data from the EIA provided additional support. Crude stocks fell by 607,000 barrels to 414.8 million, against expectations of a build, while gasoline stocks dropped by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels, highlighting strong product drawdowns. However, crude stocks at Cushing rose slightly, and refinery runs increased by 52,000 barrels per day despite a dip in utilization rates to 93%. On the macro front, OPEC maintained its upbeat oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing solid global economic momentum. The group’s monthly report also showed that OPEC+ crude output rose by 509,000 barrels per day in August, in line with quota adjustments led by Saudi Arabia’s push to regain market share. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -1.18% to 10751 while prices gained 60 rupees. Support is now seen at 5751, with a break lower opening the door to 5669, while resistance lies at 5909, and above this, prices could test 5985.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5669-5985.

* Crude oil gains as Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure prompted Moscow to curb fuel exports.

* Russia will introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports.

* Crude oil exports from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey were scheduled to restart on Saturday.

Natural Gas

Natural gas yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.11% at 283.1 as ample storage levels and expectations of steady demand capped upside momentum. U.S. gas production remains robust, with the Natural Gas Supply Association projecting record highs this winter to balance both domestic consumption and surging LNG export demand. However, output in the Lower 48 states eased to 107.4 bcfd so far in September, down from the record 108.3 bcfd in August, with daily production hitting an 11-week low at 106.3 bcfd. Record output earlier this year allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage, lifting inventories to 3,508 bcf, 6.1% above the five-year average and 0.6% higher than last year. The latest EIA report showed a 75 bcf injection for the week ended September 19, broadly in line with expectations but higher than the 47 bcf build seen a year earlier. Meanwhile, Canadian producers are cutting output as prices in some regions slipped into record negative territory due to oversupply. Weather forecasts continue to point to above-normal warmth through mid-October, limiting near-term heating demand. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. dry gas production to average 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026, with LNG exports expected to climb steadily to 16.3 bcfd by 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest rose 6.47% to 26,714 while prices dipped. Support lies at 277.7, with further downside possible to 272.4, while resistance is at 288.6, and a break above could see prices retest 294.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.4-294.2.

* Natural gas eased on ample amounts of gas in storage.

* U.S. natural gas production is projected to reach record highs this winter.

* Canadian natgas producers cut output amid record low prices

Copper

Copper yesterday settled lower by -0.44% at 939.55, as profit booking emerged after recent gains driven by supply disruption concerns following Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure declaration at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Copper inventories in Chinese warehouses fell 6.6%, while the Yangshan copper premium stabilized at $53 per ton, reflecting steady but cautious demand for imported copper. Goldman Sachs revised its global copper mine supply forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, estimating a total loss of 525,000 metric tons due to the disruption, reducing second-half 2025 supply by 160,000 tons and 2026 supply by 200,000 tons. Citi raised short-term copper price forecasts to $10,500 per ton, citing supply disruptions, and expects a potential market deficit of 400 kilotons in 2026, with prices possibly rallying to $12,000–$14,000 per ton. Refined copper consumption is projected to rise 2.9% next year to 27.5 million tons, likely swinging the market from this year’s 63,000-ton surplus to a 308,000-ton deficit. China’s early September copper production fell 5%, partially offsetting increased output from Chile’s Codelco and Escondida mines, while Collahuasi saw output drop sharply by 27.2%. Global refined copper markets recorded a 57,000-ton surplus in July, with first-seven-month figures showing a 101,000-ton surplus. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 5.73% to 7,143 contracts. Copper is getting support at 933.6, with further downside possible to 927.5, while resistance is seen at 946.2, and a move above could test 952.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 927.5-952.7.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices rallied amid supply disruption concerns following Freeport's force majeure declaration.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.6%

* The Yangshan copper premium, which reflects demand for copper imported into China, stabilised at $53 a ton, its one-month low.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled lower by -1.07% at 281.85, as profit booking emerged amid concerns over potential European Commission tariffs on Chinese steel imports, ranging from 25% to 50%. The move is intended to protect European steel producers as global overcapacity continues to pressure margins and investment in decarbonization. Despite the downside, LME zinc stocks fell to their lowest since May 23 at 48,825 tons, having dropped 80% year-to-date, while cash LME zinc's premium to the three-month contract climbed to $51 per ton, its highest since October last year, reflecting tight supply conditions. In China, zinc production in August reached its highest monthly level since Q1 2024, with inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rising slightly by 1.2% from last Friday. South China smelters resumed production in H1, contributing to a moderate increase in capacity, though September output is expected to dip slightly to 609,800 tons. Production cuts earlier in the year by Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine (-20% Q1) and Nyrstar (-25% annual) continue to tighten supply. Peru’s Antamina mine, operated by Glencore and BHP, is projected to produce 450,000 tons this year, up 67% from 2024. Globally, the zinc market swung to a 30,200-ton surplus in July from a 21,100-ton deficit in June, with a cumulative surplus of 72,000 tons in the first seven months of 2025, per ILZSG.  Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 6.45% to 3,270 contracts. Zinc is getting support at 280.1, with further downside possible to 278.3, while resistance is seen at 284.8, and a move above could test 287.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.3-287.7.

* Zinc fell amid reports that EC plans to impose steep tariffs—ranging from 25% to 50%—on Chinese steel imports.

* The global zinc market swung to a surplus of 30,200 metric tons in July from a deficit of 21,100 tons in June.

* Zinc production at Peru's Antamina mine, is expected to rise 67% this year.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 255.2, pressured by a firmer dollar after better-than-expected U.S. economic data dampened expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve this year. In North America, aluminium demand fell 4.4% year-on-year in H1 2025, impacted by declining exports amid ongoing tariff pressures. Despite this, downside remained limited due to persistent supply risks. Supply concerns were further heightened after Guinea Alumina lost all its mining licenses, as the military-led government transferred leases to a state-run company, potentially affecting Emirates Global Aluminum’s feedstock. Global primary aluminium stocks on the LME declined nearly 100,000 tons to 375,000 in early September, supported by speculative bullish positions and firm physical demand. According to IAI, global aluminium output in August rose 0.9% YoY to 6.277 million tons, with China’s domestic production up 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM. Japan’s stocks rose 6.3% MoM, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 2.4%. WBMS data showed a global supply deficit of 119,900 tons in July 2025, and a cumulative deficit of 985,300 tons from January to July. China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminium in July, up from 489,000 tons in June, and imported 320,000 tons in August, up 12.9% YoY, bringing total imports for the first eight months to 2.65 million tons. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down -1.08% to 4,032 contracts. Aluminium is supported at 254.4, with further downside possible to 253.7, while resistance is seen at 256.2, and a breakout above could test 257.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 253.7-257.3.

* Aluminium dropped amid firmer dollar after better-than-forecast U.S. data.

* Global primary aluminium output in August rose 0.9% year on year to 6.277 million tonnes – IAI

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 2.4% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 12,314, reflecting mixed factors in the market. Increased acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season weighed on prices, while downside was capped as recent heavy rainfall caused damage to standing crops in key growing regions. In Nanded, approximately 15% of the turmeric crop area has been affected, raising concerns among farmers. The IMD forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in some parts of South India in September adds further uncertainty. Meanwhile, stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days, supporting market firmness. On the production front, dry weather is helping timely planting, with preliminary estimates suggesting a 15–20% increase in turmeric acreage as alternative crops offer lower profitability. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric acreage was recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous season. In the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals are seeing strong buyer interest, with new produce fetching higher prices due to superior quality. Turmeric exports during April–July 2025 rose 2.29% to 63,020.23 tonnes versus 61,609.83 tonnes last year. July exports were 15,070.67 tonnes, slightly down from July 2024 but up 9.31% from June 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down -0.3% to 14,850 contracts. Turmeric is finding support at 12,246, with further downside potentially testing 12,180, while resistance is seen at 12,384. A sustained move above this level could see prices testing 12,456.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12180-12456.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12813.25 Rupees dropped by -1.01 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 19,110, pressured by weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. The decline was primarily driven by limited buying interest from both local and foreign buyers, while adequate existing stocks and comfortable supplies added to the bearish sentiment. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to trade by the season’s end, leaving a carry-forward stock of roughly 16 lakh bags. Despite the recent fall, downside remained limited as the GST council’s reduction of GST to 5% for FMCG and related exports is expected to support domestic demand and exports. Production for the current season is estimated to be around 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, owing to reduced sowing areas. In Gujarat, cumin production is expected at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during April–July 2025 fell sharply by 19.81% to 73,026.35 tonnes compared with the same period in 2024. July exports dropped 20.83% year-on-year to 13,778.60 tonnes and 15.58% month-on-month versus June 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down -0.34% to 3,537 contracts. Jeera is finding support at 19,010, with further downside potentially testing 18,900 levels, while resistance is seen at 19,290. A sustained move above this level could see prices testing 19,460.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18900-19460.

* Jeera settled down due to weak domestic and export demand.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19016.35 Rupees dropped by -1 percent.

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