Aluminium trading range for the day is 320.8-348.2 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 1.87% up at 163,303, supported by a weaker dollar and easing energy prices after Donald Trump suggested that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could end soon. Despite the rally, gains were somewhat capped as higher energy costs continue to raise inflation concerns, which in turn may reduce the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, investors largely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its March 18 policy meeting. Central bank demand remains a key supportive factor. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to 16 consecutive months, with holdings reaching 74.22 million troy ounces by the end of February. Meanwhile, China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong rose sharply by 68.7% in January to 20.585 tonnes, reflecting stronger investment demand. Physical demand trends were mixed across regions. In India, high and volatile prices dampened retail buying, although discounts narrowed due to supply disruptions caused by regional airspace closures. In contrast, demand in China remained firm, with gold trading at premiums of $13–$15 per ounce over global benchmark prices. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.63% to 7,606 while prices gained Rs3,004. Gold has immediate support at 161,905, with further downside potentially testing 160,505. On the upside, resistance is seen at 164,140, and a break above this level could push prices toward 164,975.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 160505-164975.
* Gold prices rose supported by a weaker dollar and easing energy costs
* Trump predicts the war in the Middle East could be over soon
* China's central bank kept purchasing gold for a 16th straight months, with holdings totalling 74.22 million fine troy ounces.
Silver
Silver prices surged in the previous session, settling 4% higher at 277,850, largely supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar retreated after Donald Trump indicated that the ongoing military operation involving Iran could conclude sooner than initially expected. He also signaled potential plans to waive oil-related sanctions and deploy the United States Navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a move aimed at stabilizing energy markets and easing geopolitical tensions. Recent economic data from the United States also provided some support to the broader metals complex. Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to an annualized rate of 4.09 million, beating expectations, although housing inventory increased 2.4% to 1.29 million units, equivalent to 3.8 months of supply. Meanwhile, data from the ADP Research Institute showed U.S. private employers added an average of 15,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending February 21, the fastest pace of job growth since late November 2025. Supply dynamics are also tightening in the physical silver market. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015, highlighting significant drawdowns in exchange-held stocks. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.13% to 6,030 while prices gained Rs10,690. Silver has immediate support at 272,745, with further downside potentially testing 267,640. On the upside, resistance is seen at 281,210, and a move above this level could push prices toward 284,570.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 267640-284570.
* Silver climbed supported by the dollar’s retreat as hopes for a swift end to the Iran war.
* The US military operation in Iran is nearing its conclusion and running well ahead of the initial four- to five-week estimated timeframe
* US private employers added an average of 15,500 jobs per week in the four weeks, the same pace of job growth from the previous week
Crude oil
Crude oil prices plunged sharply in the previous session, settling 15.56% lower at 7,421, after comments from Donald Trump suggested that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could end sooner than expected. The possibility of a quicker resolution eased fears of prolonged supply disruptions, especially around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Trump also warned that the United States could intensify military action if Iran attempted to block tanker traffic through the strait. Earlier supply concerns had pushed prices higher after several Middle Eastern producers reduced output as export routes were disrupted. Production cuts were significant, with Saudi Arabia reducing output by 2–2.5 million barrels per day, while the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq also implemented notable reductions as storage facilities filled and tanker movement slowed. Meanwhile, demand indicators remained mixed. Data showed China increased crude oil imports by 15.8% year-on-year to 96.93 million tonnes in the first two months of 2026, reflecting strong refining activity. On the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.475 million barrels to 439.3 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest edging up 0.13% to 17,375 while prices dropped by Rs1,367. Crude oil has immediate support at 6,933, with a break below potentially testing 6,444. On the upside, resistance is seen at 8,185, and a move above this level could push prices toward 8,948.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6444-8948.
* Crude oil prices fell after Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon
* Iran says oil blockade will continue until attacks end, Trump threatens to hit harder
* SAUDI, UAE, IRAQ, KUWAIT cut oil output by as much as 6.7m b/d
Natural gas
Natural gas prices declined sharply in the previous session, settling 4.92% lower at 276.1, after Donald Trump indicated that the conflict involving Iran could end “very soon,” easing some of the risk premium across energy markets. Even so, uncertainty remains elevated as the world’s largest LNG export hub in Qatar remains offline and the strategically important Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruptions. Weather conditions have also weighed on prices. Warmer-than-normal forecasts across much of the United States through late March are expected to reduce heating demand. At the same time, production levels remain strong. Data from LSEG shows average gas output in the Lower 48 states rising to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, compared with 109.2 bcfd in February, and close to the record 110.6 bcfd seen in December 2025. Storage data also influenced market sentiment. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. utilities withdrew 132 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ending February 27, bringing total stockpiles down to 1.886 trillion cubic feet. Despite the drawdown, inventories remain 6.5% above year-ago levels but 2.2% below the five-year average, indicating relatively balanced supply conditions. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.53% to 19,744 while prices dropped by Rs14.3. Natural gas has immediate support at 268.9, with further downside potentially testing 261.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 287.4, and a break above this level could push prices toward 298.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 261.7-298.7.
* Natural gas fell after US President Donald Trump said the Iran war could end “very soon,” easing pressure.
* Russia offers conditional oil and gas supplies to Europe amid Hormuz disruptions.
* Warmer-than-normal weather forecasts across much of the US through late March are expected to reduce heating demand.
Copper
Copper prices ended the session 1.21% higher at 1,207.95, supported by a softer US Dollar and opportunistic dip-buying from China, which helped the market recover after the initial geopolitical shock. Sentiment also improved as China’s consumer inflation accelerated to the highest level in more than three years, largely due to increased spending during the Lunar New Year period. However, the upside remained somewhat capped by rising inventories. Copper stocks in warehouses registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged sharply from 180,543 tonnes on January 9 to 391,539 tonnes by February 27. Meanwhile, the Yangshan copper premium—a key indicator of China’s demand for imported metal—fell to $20 per tonne in late January, its lowest level since July 2024, although it recovered slightly after the holiday break. Higher inventories on the London Metal Exchange also weighed on sentiment. Despite these pressures, the broader outlook for copper remains constructive. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citigroup have turned increasingly bullish, forecasting prices between $12,200 and $15,000 per tonne over the coming months as global demand strengthens. Meanwhile, Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, reported exports of $4.7 billion in February, up 16.3% year-on-year. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.04% to 15,448 while prices gained Rs14.5. Copper has immediate support at 1,201.4, with a break below potentially testing 1,194.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,211.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,215.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1194.8-1215.6.
* Copper gains amid a correction in the dollar and opportunistic dip-buying from China.
* China January – February unwrought copper imports decline 16.1% year – on – year
* The Yangshan copper premium, dropped to $20 a ton in late January, the lowest since July 202
Zinc
Zinc prices ended marginally higher in the previous session, settling 0.23% up at 325.95, supported mainly by concerns over tight supply conditions and relatively low global inventories. Ongoing mine closures, operational delays, and supply disruptions have continued to provide underlying support to the market. However, gains remained limited as macro uncertainties and a stronger US Dollar weighed on sentiment. Markets also remained cautious due to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, as the conflict involving the United States and Israel entered its sixth day, raising concerns about a prolonged confrontation and its potential impact on global economic activity. At the same time, China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly below last year’s pace, signaling tolerance for slower growth while leaving room for further monetary easing by the People's Bank of China. Fundamentally, the global zinc market remained relatively tight. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the market recorded a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, compared with a 69,000-ton deficit in 2024, as production growth struggled to fully match demand. Meanwhile, global zinc inventories declined by 77,000 tons to 739,000 tons by the end of the year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.67% to 3,645 while prices edged higher by Rs0.75. Zinc has immediate support at 324.7, with a break below potentially testing 323.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 327.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward 329.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 323.4-329.2.
* Zinc gains as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.
* China's central bank vows flexible, efficient cuts in reserve ratio, rates in 2026
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last Friday, the exchange said.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged higher in the previous session, settling 0.39% up at 337.25, as supply concerns from the Middle East supported market sentiment. Deliveries were disrupted after major smelters in Qatar and Bahrain suspended shipments, prompting buyers in the United States to look for alternative cargoes from Asia. However, comments from Donald Trump suggesting that tensions involving Iran could ease soon helped calm fears of prolonged supply disruptions. The tightening supply situation is also reflected in the London Metal Exchange aluminium spread, where the market has moved into its strongest backwardation since 2022. This indicates stronger demand for near-term deliveries. Major producers Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain have already declared force majeure on shipments, raising concerns about global availability. As a result, Bank of America now expects the global aluminium deficit to widen to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of 1 million tonnes. Major financial institutions remain bullish on the metal. Citigroup has raised its price target to $3,600 per tonne, while Morgan Stanley sees prices potentially reaching $3,700 per tonne in a bullish scenario as supply growth remains constrained. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.47% to 3,468 while prices gained Rs1.3. Aluminium has immediate support at 329.1, with a break below potentially testing 320.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 342.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 348.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 320.8-348.2.
* Aluminium gains as two major smelters in Qatar and Bahrain suspended deliveries.
* London metals exchange aluminum spread trades are seeing the largest backwardation since 2022.
* Premiums for aluminium in South Korea have increased sharply since the end of February, as demand for physical metal in Asia grows.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices edged higher in the previous session, settling 0.92% up at 14,740, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Market sentiment has also been strengthened by reports that both farmers and stockists have reduced their holdings, tightening near-term supplies and lending support to prices ahead of the new crop arrivals. Weather-related disruptions have also played a role. Key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka experienced yield losses due to excessive rainfall and localized disease pressure. Unseasonal rains during August–September affected around 15% of the crop area in parts of Marathwada, resulting in yield losses of nearly 15–20% in some pockets. Despite this, higher acreage is expected to push India’s 2026 turmeric production to about 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. Total acreage for the 2025–26 season is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, about 4% higher year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Export demand remains firm, particularly from Europe and the United States. According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports during April–December 2025 rose 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes, while imports dropped sharply by 41.54%, indicating tighter domestic availability. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.74% to 18,225 while prices gained Rs134. Turmeric has immediate support at 14,398, with further downside potentially testing 14,056. On the upside, resistance is seen at 15,136, and a break above this level could push prices toward 15,532.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14056-15532.
* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* Farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market ahead of the new crop supply.
* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15101.5 Rupees dropped by -1.12 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 2.31% up at 22,545, supported by expectations of lower production and tightening supplies in the domestic market. Estimates suggest cumin output may decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this season. In Gujarat, production is expected to drop sharply by 27% to 1.83 lakh tonnes due to an 18% decline in acreage and an 11% fall in yields. In contrast, Rajasthan may see production rise 15% to 3.29 lakh tonnes, supported by slightly higher acreage and improved yields. Weather irregularities and crop issues such as blight and rising aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan have also raised concerns about supply. Sowing in Gujarat is already reported 14.34% lower year-on-year, covering around 4.08 lakh hectares, reflecting one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and logistical challenges have kept the global supply outlook uncertain, which has lent some support to prices. However, the upside remains limited as arrivals of the new crop have begun in key markets and are expected to pick up pace from March onward. Export demand also remains subdued. According to data from the Spices Board of India, jeera exports during April–December 2025 declined 12.08% to 145,137 tonnes compared with the same period last year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 11.83% to 3,915 while prices gained Rs510. Jeera has immediate support at 22,190, with further downside potentially testing 21,820. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,760, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,960.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21820-22960.
* Jeera prices gained as production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.
* Production in Gujarat is expected to fall 27 per cent to 1.83 lt owing to an 18 per cent decline in area and a 11 per cent drop in yield.
* Rajasthan’s output is projected to rise 15 per cent to 3.29 lt, supported by a 4 per cent rise in area and a 11 per cent improvement in yield.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21971.55 Rupees gained by 1.19 percent.
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